Kemper Corporation Just Recorded A 6.7% Revenue Beat: Here's What Analysts Think
Investors in Kemper Corporation (NYSE:KMPR) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.7% to close at US$58.98 following the release of its first-quarter results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of US$1.10 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of US$1.1b came in 6.7% ahead of analyst predictions. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Kemper
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering Kemper, is for revenues of US$4.24b in 2024. This implies a not inconsiderable 12% reduction in Kemper's revenue over the past 12 months. Kemper is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$4.27 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.22b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.56 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
The consensus price target held steady at US$72.20, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Kemper, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$77.00 and the most bearish at US$67.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Kemper is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Kemper's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 15% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 2.4% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.0% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Kemper is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Kemper. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Kemper's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Kemper going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Kemper is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.