Jobs Numbers Coming This Week; Tyson (TSN) Underperforms

Monday, May 4, 2020

For the second time in as many weeks, we kick things off slowly, compared with the consequential reports we expect as the week rolls along. Key among economic reads begin with Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reporting private-sector payrolls Wednesday, followed by weekly Initial Jobless Claims Thursday morning and the monthly Employment Situation report on Friday. None of these are expected to bring good news, but absorbing the impact of current conditions is part of the healing process.

Today, after the opening bell, we get a look at Factory Orders for March. While this figure is in arrears from more current data set to report, it is nevertheless expected to drop from the 0.0% from the February release. How much of a drop? That is very much a big, fat guess.

Last Friday during the normal trading day, PMI and ISM Manufacturing data came to the fore regarding the month of April, with a read of 41.5% demonstrating a contracting market. After 131 months of expansion, April manufacturing fell 7.5% in a month. (Above 42.8%, over an extended period of time, indicates a manufacturing growth environment.)

Computers & Electronics manufacturing fell 30% from March to April, citing COVID-19 conditions, while Chemical companies reported switching over to making hand sanitizer exclusively for the time being. Food, Beverage & Tobacco announced manufacturing companies were “weathering the storm.”

Speaking of food manufacturing, Tyson Foods TSN reported fiscal Q2 earnings this morning, missing the $1.21 per share expected in the Zacks consensus to 77 cents per share, swinging to negative earnings growth in the quarter. Revenues of $10.89 billion rose 4.3% year over year, but still missed the $11.64 billion expected.

Operating margin fell 150 basis points in the quarter. This marks the third consecutive quarter of negative earnings surprises for the Zacks Rank #4 (Sell)-rated company. Meat processing plants generally — not just Tyson — appear to be particularly prone to COVID-19 outbreaks, so this is a sub-industry worth casting a wary eye toward, at least for now.

Mark Vickery
Senior Editor

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