Yahoo Finance Intrinsic Calculation For Ctripcom International Ltd (NASDAQ:CTRP) Shows Investors Are Overpaying
In this article I am going to calculate the intrinsic value of Ctripcom International Ltd (NASDAQ:CTRP) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This is done using the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. Please also note that this article was written in June 2018 so be sure check out the updated calculation by following the link below. Check out our latest analysis for Ctrip.com International
The calculation
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next five years. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. I then discount this to its value today and sum up the total to get the present value of these cash flows.
5-year cash flow forecast
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥5.01k | CN¥8.62k | CN¥11.92k | CN¥15.00k | CN¥18.66k |
Source | Analyst x5 | Analyst x8 | Analyst x4 | Analyst x3 | Analyst x2 |
Present Value Discounted @ 14.68% | CN¥4.37k | CN¥6.55k | CN¥7.90k | CN¥8.67k | CN¥9.41k |
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= US$36.90b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (2.9%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 14.7%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$18.66b × (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (14.7% – 2.9%) = US$163.76b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = US$163.76b ÷ ( 1 + 14.7%)5 = US$82.55b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$119.45b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value in the company’s reported currency of CN¥219.09. However, CTRP’s primary listing is in China, and 1 share of CTRP in CNY represents 0.153 ( CNY/ USD) share of NasdaqGS:CTRP, so the intrinsic value per share in USD is $33.52. Relative to the current share price of $48.78, the stock is rather overvalued at the time of writing.
Important assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don’t have to agree with my inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. Because we are looking at Ctrip.com International as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 14.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.664. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For CTRP, I’ve put together three fundamental factors you should further examine:
Financial Health: Does CTRP have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does CTRP’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of CTRP? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every US stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.
