Indonesia palm output likely dropped in Dec, first decline in months -Reuters survey

By Fransiska Nangoy and Bernadette Christina Munthe

JAKARTA, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) output likely

fell slightly in December, ending a seven-month run of gains in the world's top

producer of the commodity used in everything from chocolate to biofuels, a

Reuters survey showed.

A year-end decline in output would be in line with earlier predictions that

production would likely peak in November after steadily recovering from drought

brought on by an El Nino weather pattern in 2015 and the start of 2016.

CPO production in the Southeast Asian nation likely eased to 3.22 million

tonnes in December from 3.31 million tonnes in November, according to the median

estimate in a survey of three industry associations and a state palm research

firm.

Meanwhile, December exports of Indonesian CPO were forecast to have risen 7

percent to 2.38 million tonnes, from 2.23 million tonnes a month earlier.

Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) data showed the country exported

2.41 million tonnes of palm oil and palm kernel oil in October. The group's

November and December data is not yet available.

Domestic consumption was seen in a range of 900,000 tonnes to 1.10 million

tonnes, while the survey median showed domestic palm stocks at 1.89 million

tonnes.

The December survey comprises responses from GAPKI, the Indonesia Palm Oil

Board, the Indonesian Vegetable Oil Industry Association and the Indonesian Oil

Palm Research Institute.

Below is a table of the median responses to the Reuters CPO survey and GAPKI

palm and palm kernel oil export data for 2015/2016 (in million tonnes).

Month Output Exports Inventories GAPKI export

data

December 3.218 2.382 1.886 --

November 3.310 2.221 1.786 --

October 3.064 2.225 1.945 2.41

September 2.900 2.000 1.738 1.73

August 2.833 1.740 1.700 2.07

July 2.802 1.875 1.875 1.60

June 2.464 1.798 1.712 1.78

May 2.188 1.919 2.100 1.76

April 2.132 1.928 2.250 2.09

March 2.150 1.895 2.592 1.74

February 2.300 2.010 3.633 2.29

January 2.440 2.005 2.025 2.10

2015

December 2.457 2.675 2.425 2.51

November 2.800 2.093 2.950 2.39

October 3.010 2.213 3.025 2.61

September 3.100 2.235 3.050 2.34

August 3.198 1.885 3.392 2.10

July 2.856 1.920 3.200 2.09

June 2.800 2.400 3.046 2.27

May 2.774 2.150 2.540 2.22

April 2.662 2.046 2.602 2.25

March 2.397 1.800 2.667 2.03

February 2.049 1.750 2.425 1.79

January 2.056 1.658 2.413 1.81

(Reporting by Fransiska Nangoy and Bernadette Christina Munthe; Editing by

Joseph Radford)