Housing, sporting goods, and department stores — What you need to know Tuesday

It’s all about retail on Tuesday.

The Census Bureau’s October sales report as well as earnings from Home Depot, TJX, and Dick’s Sporting Goods will dominate the news flow.

Also in focus, of course, will be the recent rout in the bond market.

Retail

In October, retail sales are expected to rise 0.6% over the prior year, according to Wall Street estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Inside this report investors will also focus on readings about the housing market, the restaurant sector, and non-store retailers, which capture sales from online sellers like Amazon (AMZN).

“Headline retail sales will be lifted by robust motor vehicle sales last month,” writes Deutsche Bank economist Joe LaVorgna.

“However, ex-auto sales should be slightly weaker, as should the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials and gasoline from retail sales. Our retail sales forecast is consistent with our expectation that real consumer spending will expand at roughly the same pace in the current quarter as it did in Q3.”

In corporate news, Home Depot (HD) earnings are set to cross the tape before the bell, as are earnings out of Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) and TJX Companies (TJX), which owns TJ Maxx, HomeGoods, and Marshalls.

Wall Street analysts expect Home Depot to report earnings per share of $1.58 on revenue of $23.0 billion. The company’s commentary on broader trends in the housing and home-improvement markets will also be closely watched by analysts and investors.

Bonds, Routed

A Reuters report out Monday noted that the recent spike in bond yields has cost investors more than $1 trillion.

Which is both true and not.

Reuters cites a recent 1.18% drop in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Index for the $1 trillion lost by investors. Which means that investors did not literally lose $1 trillion, but if marked to market, the value of these holdings declined by more than $1 trillion.

The same, by the way, is also true when any asset rises in value as indicted by market prices. Unless you sell something, your investment’s value hasn’t really changed.

Yahoo Finance’s editor-in-chief Andy Serwer calls these kinds of numbers “specious.” Which, definitionally, is true.

But I also think these reports — and, frankly, volatile times like we’ve seen in the last week — raise interesting questions about how we quantify the move in markets as it relates to actual dollars and cents.

As we wrote last week, the lesson the average investor learned during and after the election is that ultimately, it pays to be and stay invested.

Wall Street analysts have begun tweaking their forecasts to anticipate a Trump administration, and the news seems broadly good for stocks. Taxes seem likely to be cut, business confidence will likely rebound, and all this is good for corporate earnings.

But this doesn’t mean stock prices go higher. Only that they could. Which is always true, but never strictly.

Further Reading

Warren Buffett bought some airline stocks (Yahoo Finance)

Everything happening in markets, charted (ZeroHedge)

The Wall Street Journal argues the bond sell-off is overdone (WSJ)

‘Dr. Doom’ Henry Kaufman thinks the 30-year bond rally is over (FT)

Donald Trump talked to Vladimir Putin (WaPo)

Lawsuit alleges a dead rodent was sewn into a Zara dress (NY Post)

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Myles Udland is a writer at Yahoo Finance.

Read more from Myles here; follow him on Twitter @MylesUdland