Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 11.09.2012

The prices of gold and silver changed direction again and bounced back on Thursday along with other commodities prices including crude oil and natural gas. Yesterday, U.S jobless claims update came out: number of jobless claims declined by 8k to reach 363k. This news may have contributed to the strengthening of the USD. The American trade balance deficit declined – exports of goods rose by a larger rate than imports had during September. This news was also a positive signs for the progress of the U.S economy and may have helped pull up commodities prices. In Europe MPC and ECB kept their respective short term rate unchanged. On today's agenda: UoM Consumer Sentiment, China Industrial Production, and China's Trade Balance.

On Thursday, Gold changed direction and rose by 0.7% to $1,726; Silver also increased by 1.8% to $32.24. During the month, gold increased by 0.4%; silver edged down by 0.24%.

On Today's Agenda

China Industrial Production: in the previous report about September the index rose to 9.2%; if the index will continue to rise, it could indicate the Chinese economic activity is expanding;

UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment report; this survey could offer another insight to recent developments in U.S consumers' sentiment regarding the economy; last time the sentiment index rose again to 83.1;

Currencies / Bullion Market – November Update

The Euro/ USD declined again on Thursday by 0.17% to 1.2749. As seen in the chart below, linear correlation between gold and Euro/USD is still mid-strong and robust: during October/November, the linear correlation between gold and Euro /USD reached 0.54 (daily percent changes); the linear correlation between the silver and AUD/USD was 0.48 (daily percent changes). Thus, if the Euro and other risk currencies will continue to fall against the USD, they are likely to curb the rally of gold and silver.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Silver_Outlook_November_9_2012_body_Correlation_2_November_9.png, Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 11.09.2012

Daily Outlook for November 9th

The prices of bullion changed direction again and bounced back on Thursday. The volatility of the precious metals prices seem to have settled after the sharp shifts during the beginning of the week. IN Europe there weren't any big changes as the ECB and MPC left their respective rate flat. The recent rally of the USD may have curbed the rally of bullion rates. The upcoming U.S financial report to be published today including UoM Consumer Sentiment could affect the direction of the USD, which could determine the path of gold and silver. Finally, the upcoming Chinese reports could also affect commodities prices. If the upcoming reports will show signs of progress, this could also pull up the prices of commodities.

For further reading: Does the Rise of Gold Help the Profitability of Gold Companies?

By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG

Would you like to see more third-party contributors on DailyFX? For questions and comments, please send them to research@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

Loading...
 
Recent Quotes
Symbol Price Change % Chg 
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
 
Sign-in to view quotes in your portfolios.

Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.2504-0.0027-0.21%
    USDSGD=X
    1.7295-0.0016-0.09%
    EURSGD=X
    2.1011+0.0051+0.24%
    GBPSGD=X
    81.7586+0.4622+0.57%
    SGDJPY=X
    6.2013+0.014+0.23%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.5928+0.0041+0.16%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,163.5059+38.4961+0.42%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.9772+0.0125+0.25%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.1709-0.0022-0.19%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,303.90+3.60+0.28%
    GCM14.CMX
    19.63+0.14+0.72%
    SIK14.CMX
    91.87
    ^XAU
    3.04+0.05+1.81%
    HGK14.CMX
    104.72+0.97+0.93%
    CLK14.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.63
    ^FVX
    2.65
    ^TNX
    3.48
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.117-0.006-4.88%
    B22.SI
    1.275+0.020+1.59%
    N21.SI
    2.190.0000.00%
    JS8.SI
    0.605+0.015+2.54%
    E5H.SI
    0.97+0.060+6.59%
    B20.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.445+0.055+14.10%
    5UL.SI
    0.20+0.020+11.11%
    567.SI
    0.174+0.013+8.07%
    540.SI
    0.67+0.050+8.06%
    5VT.SI
    0.425+0.030+7.59%
    5FD.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.096-0.011-10.28%
    S13.SI
    0.315-0.025-7.35%
    O08.SI
    0.139-0.010-6.71%
    5GB.SI
    0.30-0.020-6.25%
    502.SI
    0.132-0.008-5.71%
    5BM.SI