Grainger's (LON:GRI) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's
Grainger plc (LON:GRI) will increase its dividend from last year's comparable payment on the 14th of February to £0.0437. Although the dividend is now higher, the yield is only 2.5%, which is below the industry average.
Check out our latest analysis for Grainger
Grainger's Dividend Is Well Covered By Earnings
While yield is important, another factor to consider about a company's dividend is whether the current payout levels are feasible. Prior to this announcement, the company was paying out 192% of what it was earning, however the dividend was quite comfortably covered by free cash flows at a cash payout ratio of only 28%. Given that the dividend is a cash outflow, we think that cash is more important than accounting measures of profit when assessing the dividend, so this is a mitigating factor.
Looking forward, earnings per share is forecast to rise exponentially over the next year. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate that the payout ratio could reach 27%, which is in a comfortable range for us.
Grainger Has A Solid Track Record
Even over a long history of paying dividends, the company's distributions have been remarkably stable. Since 2013, the annual payment back then was £0.0195, compared to the most recent full-year payment of £0.0665. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13% a year over that time. So, dividends have been growing pretty quickly, and even more impressively, they haven't experienced any notable falls during this period.
The Dividend Has Limited Growth Potential
The company's investors will be pleased to have been receiving dividend income for some time. Unfortunately things aren't as good as they seem. Grainger's EPS has fallen by approximately 30% per year during the past five years. Such rapid declines definitely have the potential to constrain dividend payments if the trend continues into the future. Over the next year, however, earnings are actually predicted to rise, but we would still be cautious until a track record of earnings growth can be built.
Our Thoughts On Grainger's Dividend
In summary, while it's always good to see the dividend being raised, we don't think Grainger's payments are rock solid. The company is generating plenty of cash, but we still think the dividend is a bit high for comfort. We would probably look elsewhere for an income investment.
Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. However, there are other things to consider for investors when analysing stock performance. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Grainger (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about. Looking for more high-yielding dividend ideas? Try our collection of strong dividend payers.
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