Reuters / Rebecca Cook
- On Thursday night, Tesla unveiled its new electric semi truck and high-end Roadster model.
- Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino is still bearish on Tesla's stock at current levels due to continued production issues around the Model 3 sedan.
Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino is one of those skeptics, because he just can't get past the production bottleneck hanging over the Model 3 sedan. He says that the longer-term drag from Model 3 issues will more than offset the short-term gains being driven by the new product announcements.
"We expect shares to see some upward movement in trading as a result of Tesla’s new prototypes," Tamberrino wrote in a client note on Friday morning. "That said, our focus remains on near-term production constraints on the Model 3, where we continue to forecast a much lower production ramp than the company — driving our Sell rating."
Tamberrino sees Tesla's stock plunging roughly 34% to $205 per share over the next six months. And as he mentioned above, a big part of his bearish argument is that the Tesla's already-trimmed Model 3 forecasts still don't reflect just how much trouble the company will have meeting production targets. In late October, the company said that it was behind on its planned ramp-up for the Model 3, having only produced 260 sedans in the third quarter after targeting 1,500 for September alone.
Such a stock drop would certainly be welcome news for short sellers betting on a decline in Tesla's shares. While they've made almost $1 billion shorting the company in the fourth quarter, they're still down about $3.2 billion on a mark-to-market basis in 2017 as Tesla's stock has soared 46%, according to data compiled by financial-analytics firm S3 Partners.
Still, Tamberrino was impressed with some aspects of Tesla's new semi truck. Here's a summary of his thoughts on the vehicle:
- The semi's minimum range of 500 miles is "well above" previously reported figures, giving it potential for longer-haul capability.
- The total cost of ownership for the semi will be $1.26 per mile, which is lower than the $1.51 for diesel trucks.
- The vehicle's autonomous features could lower costs even further as incremental labor expenses are eliminated.
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