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Forex Trading: Holding EUR/USD Shorts into Friday

Jamie Saettele, CMT

After a false break through the trendline that extends off of the September and October highs, the EURUSD is 100 pips off of the high. Many are expecting ‘just a dip’. I’m not so sure. Once again, the market responded to the close of the reversal day (in this case the September 17th high). Former resistance at 13008 is viewed as potential support but a drop below the first day of the month low at 12980 would warrant bearish consideration until at least 12880. I am short from this morning (via Twitter) at 13064. The stop is 13090 and I plan on holding this until further notice.

Sideways trade in the USDJPY since the high may compose a triangle. Triangles occur in waves 4, B, and X. The current pattern would probably compose a 4th as suggested by impulsive channeling. The implications from the 4th wave interpretation over the next day are for weakness towards 8200 before a terminal thrust higher through 8283. The idea fits nicely with NFP tomorrow.

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