FOREX Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Focus is on 12880 ahead of NFP

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EURUSD=X1.0543-0.0118

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FOREX_Technical_Analysis_EURUSD_Focus_is_on_12880_ahead_of_NFP___body_eurusd.png, FOREX Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Focus is on 12880 ahead of NFP

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

FOREXAnalysis: The much anticipated EURUSD reversal materialized after price slightly exceeded the September reversal day close of 13115. Bigger picture, the decline from 13171 is in 3 waves and the rally from 12659 is in 5 waves. The implications are for weakness from 13126 to prove corrective (if it doesn’t then there the rally from November was likely a truncated C wave; either way, price is probably headed lower in December). 12878/92 (former 4th wave and 50% retracement) is a level that probably provides support for what is probably wave A of a 3 wave decline. Getting ahead of ourselves, a B wave rally would be expected upon completion of wave A. Perhaps such a rally culminates in fiscal cliff or QE ‘news’ but is then completely retraced at the end of December in illiquid markets in wave C. 12837 (61.8%) and perhaps 12800 would come into focus later in the month. In any case, the EURUSD should offer opportunities this month.

FOREX Trading Strategy: I’m a seller from 12990 to 13008 and a buyer (if reached tomorrow or Monday) at 12880.

LEVELS: 12837 12880 12947 12990 13008 13040

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