Forex: EURUSD Scalps Ahead of ECB- RBA to Test Key AUDUSD Levels



EURUSD Daily Chart

Forex_EURUSD_Scalps_Ahead_of_ECB-_RBA_to_Test_Key_AUDUSD_Levels_body_Picture_4.png, Forex: EURUSD Scalps Ahead of ECB- RBA to Test Key AUDUSD Levels

The euro broke above long standing channel resistance dating back to the 2011 highs today exposing key resistance at the confluence of the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci extensions just above 1.3090. This level also coincides with trendline resistance extending off the September high and will serve as our topside limit. A close above this mark offers further conviction on long scalps with such a scenario eyeing topside objectives at the October high at 1.3138 and the September highs at 1.3170. Note that daily RSI has continued to hold above the 60-threshold with a breach above 70 likely to provide the pair with enough momentum for a test of the 100% extension taken off the November lows at 1.3227. Only a break below the 1.30-handle alleviates further dollar losses.

EURUSD Scalp Chart

Forex_EURUSD_Scalps_Ahead_of_ECB-_RBA_to_Test_Key_AUDUSD_Levels_body_Picture_3.png, Forex: EURUSD Scalps Ahead of ECB- RBA to Test Key AUDUSD Levels

The 30min scalp charts shows the euro holding just below soft resistance at 1.3070 (10/5 high) with the pair continuing to respect trendline resistance dating back to the 11/23 high. A breach above this mark targets our topside limit at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the November 13th and 28th troughs at 1.3094. Should this level be compromised, look for further advances with subsequent resistance targets seen at 1.3130, 1.3150, the 1.32-handle and the 100% extension at 1.3227.

Minor RSI divergence warns of a possible near-term correction with a break below interim support at 1.3050 targeting 1.3022. A break below our bottom limit at the 38.2% Fibonacci extension at 1.3012 shifts our focus lower with subsequent floors seen at 1.2975, the 61.8% retracement off the October decline at 1.2952, 1.2925 and the 50% retracement 1.2896. A quarter of the daily ATR yields profit targets of 20-22 pips per scalp depending on entry. Should ATRto pullback dramatically, adjust profit targets as need to ensure more feasible scalps.

*We will remain flexible with our bias with a break below1.30 eyeing subsequent support targets. It’s extremely important in these market conditions to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid: EURUSD

Entry/Exit Targets




Resistance Target 1



Soft Res - 10/5 High

Topside Limit



61.8% Fib Extension

Break Target 1



October High

Break Target 2



78.6% Fib Extension

Break Target 3



Psychological Barrier

Break Target 4



100% Fib Extension

Support Target 1



50% Fib Extension

Support Target 2



76.4% Retracement

Bottom Limit



38.2% Fib Extension

Break Target 1



Soft Support

Break Target 2



61.8% Retracement

Break Target 3



Soft Support

Break Target 4



50% Retracement

Average True Range



Profit Targets 20-22pips

GBPUSD Daily Chart Update

Forex_EURUSD_Scalps_Ahead_of_ECB-_RBA_to_Test_Key_AUDUSD_Levels_body_Picture_2.png, Forex: EURUSD Scalps Ahead of ECB- RBA to Test Key AUDUSD Levels

The 1.6040 barrier noted in our last GBPUSD Scalp Report has now been compromised with the move triggering profit targets at the near confluence of the 61.8% extension off the November lows and the 78.6% retracement taken from the November decline just shy of the 1.61-handle. Note that daily RSI is now testing the 60-threshold with a breach above this mark likely to offer the pair with enough momentum for a test of key resistance in the region between the November highs and the 100% extension at 1.6175/95. Though we are flat here, we maintain our broader bullish bias so long as price action remains above the 38.2% retracement taken from the November decline at 1.5957. Scalp targets noted in the report.

Other Prospects:


Forex_EURUSD_Scalps_Ahead_of_ECB-_RBA_to_Test_Key_AUDUSD_Levels_body_Picture_1.png, Forex: EURUSD Scalps Ahead of ECB- RBA to Test Key AUDUSD Levels

With the RBA on tap tonight, expect some volatility in the aussie with a simple retracement taken off the November 16th advance serving as our scalp setup. As noted in today's Analyst Pick, Credit Suisse overnight swaps are factoring in a 92% chance of a 25bps cut with twelve month expectations calling for an additional 71bps in cuts. As such we believe that the risk is now weighted to the upside if the RBA fails to deliver with the accompanying policy statement likely to offer further clarity on future monetary policy.

We noted in last week's scalp report, “It's difficult to justify aggressive short-scalps unless the 1.0415-threshold is compromised (on a close basis) as the level has served as a clear pivot in price action over the past few months. Note that RSI has continued to hold below the 60-mark suggesting that the recent rally remains within confines of a broader consolidation pattern off the February highs. "A close below this mark puts our primary objective in focus at 1.0335. Also note that the 23.6% retracement at 1.0440/45 coincides with the 61.8% retracement taken from the September decline and has served as a pivot over the past few months. A topside break above this mark warrants action in my opinion with such a scenario eyeing targets at 1.0470, last month's high at 1.0488 and the 1.05-handle.

For updates on these setups and more follow me on Twitter @MBForex

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To contact Michael email or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael on Tuesday morning for a Live Scalping Webinar on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive for Live Clients) at 1530 GMT (10:30ET)

Introduction to Scalping Strategies Webinar

Beginner Fibonacci Expo Presentation

New to FX Trading? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.


Get stories like this on the Yahoo app and discover more every day.
Download it now.
  • Wall Street opens lower as investors await Yellen
    Wall Street opens lower as investors await Yellen Reuters - 5 minutes ago

    REUTERS - U.S. stocks opened lower on Thursday as investors nervously awaited Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's take on interest rate hikes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 26.6 points, or ... … More »

  • European, US equities dip awaiting Fed
    European, US equities dip awaiting Fed AFP News - 17 minutes ago

    European stocks slid Thursday in choppy trade as investors eyed poor German data and recent oil price falls, on the eve of a speech by Federal Reserve boss Janet Yellen. Mid-afternoon, Frankfurt had shed 0.9 percent, London lost 0.3 percent and … More »

  • Stocks waver between small gains and losses in midday trade
    Stocks waver between small gains and losses in midday trade Associated Press - 22 minutes ago

    Stocks are wavering between gains and losses in midday trading Thursday as investors sift through a handful of earnings reports. Drug company Mylan rose, but Signet Jewelers and Dollar General fell after ... … More »

  • TABLE-INDONESIA KPB NUSANTARA PALM OIL PRICES - Aug 25 Reuters - 26 minutes ago

    Aug 25 (Reuters) - Following are Indonesian prices for crude palm oil (CPO) quoted at an auction by PT KPB Nusantara (formerly known as the state marketing centre) on Monday. Buyer Volume Price Terms (tonnes) ... … More »

  • RUBBER-Tokyo futures prices after evening session Aug 25 Reuters - 27 minutes ago

    Following are prices for Tokyo rubber futures at the end of the Tokyo market's evening session on Aug 2016. Contract Day Volume Evening Volume * Aug 161.3 5 155.0 5 * Sep 156.2 45 156.5 12 * Oct 155.3 ... … More »

  • Japan's ANA finds problem with Boeing 787 Rolls-Royce engines, cancels some flights Reuters - 34 minutes ago

    TOKYO/LONDON (Reuters) - Japanese carrier ANA Holdings needs to replace damaged compressor blades in the Rolls-Royce engines powering its Boeing 787s, it said on Thursday, forcing it to cancel some Dreamliner flights over the coming weeks. The … More »

  • German prosecutors review stolen Bosch data for VW dieselgate clues Reuters - 37 minutes ago

    Prosectors in Stuttgart, Germany are examining a trove of stolen Bosch data to see whether it contains clues about how Volkswagen cheated diesel emissions tests. "We are reviewing it to see if it is relevant," a spokesman for the Stuttgart … More »

  • Turkey sends more tanks to Syria, warns Kurdish militia
    Turkey sends more tanks to Syria, warns Kurdish militia AFP News - 41 minutes ago

    Turkey sent more tanks into Syria on Thursday and sternly warned a Kurdish militia to withdraw from frontline positions, a day after pro-Ankara Syrian opposition fighters captured a key border town from jihadists. The tanks joined those which … More »

  • In euro zone first, Finland could sell syndicated bond with negative yield Reuters - 42 minutes ago

    Finland could launch a new bond as early as next week, three banking sources said on Thursday, a deal that could mark the first euro zone sovereign syndication with a negative yield. The country is believed to be considering whether to issue a … More »

  • Markets Right Now: Stocks waver in late morning trade Associated Press - 43 minutes ago

    The latest on developments in global financial markets (all times local): 11:45 a.m. U.S. stock indexes are wavering between small gains and losses as a late summer lull on Wall Street continues. Several ... … More »

  • Asia’s Biggest Container Shipper Posts Loss After China Merger Bloomberg - 45 minutes ago

    China last year merged China Ocean Shipping Group and China Shipping Group to form China Cosco Shipping Corp. as part of the government’s efforts to shrink industries plagued by overcapacity while creating globally competitive businesses. China … More »

  • Russia to work with US on response to Syria gas attacks probe
    Russia to work with US on response to Syria gas attacks probe AFP News - 58 minutes ago

    Russia will work with the United States on a response after UN investigators found that the Syrian regime had carried out chemical attacks, Moscow's UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said Thursday. An investigative panel set up by the UN Security … More »

  • Hedge Funds Are Suddenly Winning on China’s Most Dangerous Short Bloomberg - 59 minutes ago

    After suffering through a 953 percent rally in shares of Yirendai Ltd. since mid-February, hedge funds and other bearish speculators were rewarded over the past four days as the Chinese peer-to-peer lender sank 35 percent in U.S. trading. Holding … More »

  • FTSE retreats as pharma stocks fall
    FTSE retreats as pharma stocks fall Reuters - 1 hour 0 minutes ago

    UK shares fell on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session as healthcare stocks dropped, though CRH rose after well-received results. The blue-chip FTSE 100 index was down 0.3 percent at 6,816.90 points by the close. Healthcare stocks … More »

  • Biden warns Europe against Russian energy reliance
    Biden warns Europe against Russian energy reliance Associated Press - 1 hour 39 minutes ago

    U.S. Vice President Joe Biden says a new natural gas pipeline planned to stretch from Russia to Germany "looks like a fairly bad deal" for Europe because it increases its energy dependency on ... … More »

  • Average US 30-year mortgage rate unchanged at 3.43 percent Associated Press - 1 hour 44 minutes ago

    Long-term U.S. mortgage rates didn't budge this week, remaining at historically low levels that continue to lure prospective home buyers. Mortgage giant Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average for the ... … More »

  • Oil prices up nearly 1 percent on soft dollar, OPEC speculation
    Oil prices up nearly 1 percent on soft dollar, OPEC speculation Reuters - 1 hour 47 minutes ago

    Oil prices rose nearly 1 percent on Thursday, bouncing back from a selloff in the previous session, on expectations the dollar would weaken ahead of a key speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Friday. Crude futures also saw support … More »

  • Obama administration pushing state-run retirement plans Associated Press - 1 hour 49 minutes ago

    The Obama administration has finalized a new rule intended to encourage states to set up their own retirement plans. The Department of Labor rule is designed to clarify how voluntary, state-run retirement ... … More »

  • Spain revises Q2 growth estimate upward to 0.8 percent Associated Press - 1 hour 52 minutes ago

    Officials have revised Spain's quarterly economic growth figure for the April-June period upward, from 0.7 percent to 0.8 percent, welcome news for a country in its eighth month without a fully functioning ... … More »

  • Grain mixed, livestock mixed Associated Press - 2 hours 1 minute ago

    Grain futures were mixed Thursday in early trading on the Chicago Board of Trade. Wheat for Sept. delivery was .50 cent higher at $4.0460 a bushel; Sept. corn was .50 cent lower at $3.27 bushel; Sept. ... … More »

  • Iran will join OPEC meet in Algeria: minister AFP - 2 hours 17 minutes ago

    Iran will take part in an informal meeting of OPEC countries in Algeria next month, state media reported on Thursday. "I will take part in this session," Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh told the ... … More »

  • Deals of the day- Mergers and acquisitions Reuters - 2 hours 29 minutes ago

    ** British broadcaster ITV said on Thursday it would not bid for Entertainment One after failing to persuade the owner of the children's TV character Peppa Pig to enter into a formal process. ** Berry Plastics Group Inc said it would buy AEP … More »

  • Chinese military will train Syrian troops: govt
    Chinese military will train Syrian troops: govt AFP News - 2 hours 40 minutes ago

    China's military will provide training for Syrian armed forces, a spokesman for Beijing's defence ministry said Thursday, adding it would take place on Chinese soil. Beijing is a longstanding backer of the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad, … More »

  • Gold edges off 4-week low, awaits clues on Fed policy
    Gold edges off 4-week low, awaits clues on Fed policy Reuters - 2 hours 47 minutes ago

    Gold edged off the previous day's four-week low on Thursday as the dollar retreated, but prices were rangebound ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen this week which will be watched for clues on monetary policy. Investors are … More »

  • Oil prices fall as production freeze expectation fades
    Oil prices fall as production freeze expectation fades Reuters - 2 hours 48 minutes ago

    Oil prices slipped on Thursday as the market focused on oversupply and fading expectation of a production freeze. U.S. light crude oil was down 15 cents at $46.62 a barrel, after dropping 2.8 percent on Wednesday. Oil prices rose more than 20 … More »

Recent Quotes
Symbol Price Change % Chg 
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
to view quotes in your portfolios.


  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg

Market Data

  • Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
  • Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
  • Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change