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Forex: Dollar Tumbles and EUR/USD Closes 9 Month High
Dollar Tumbles and EUR/USD Closes 9 Month High
Euro Surges Higher after ECB Hold, Spain Bond Auction
Japanese Yen Crosses Revive Strongest Run Since 1989
Australian Dollar Closes 10-Month High, 1.0600 Up to Risk Trends
British Pound Ignores BoE Rate Decision, Runs on ECB Aftershocks
Canadian Dollar Stumbles Against Most Counterparts
Gold Advances on Dollar Weakness but 1680 Could Curb Bulls
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Dollar Tumbles and EUR/USD Closes 9 Month High
Against the backdrop of a five-year high for the S&P 500 and a remarkable climb for EURUSD, it wasn’t difficult to interpret the pain the US dollar was in Thursday. For the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar), the 57-point or 0.57 percent tumble was the steepest the benchmark has suffered since September 11 – notably the end of a three-month bear wave. While the Index was suffering a significant hit, it was the individual pairs that truly stood out. EURUSD’s 208-pip (1.6 percent) rally was the biggest since June 29, GBPUSD rallied 145 pips (a five-month record) and AUDUSD rose to close at its highest level since March. There are all impressive moves, but we have to ask whether this was the beginning of a lasting trend or a one-off swell spurred on by the right mix of event risk.
The difference between a lasting trend and a quick reversal for the majors (plunge or recovery for the dollar) is the source of Thursday’s move. There is tempting evidence in the performance across the market this past session that what was driving the swell in volatility was genuine risk appetite. If indeed the impetus for the move was a strong shift in the appetite riskier / higher-yielding assets and currencies, this may be just the first step in a lasting trend. Given the advance for US equity indexes, EURUSD and the yen crosses; it would seem that there was a common denominator to the drive that can unify these very different markets. However, there are a few serious concern that temper my optimism.
Correlations across these different markets are one of the best measures for underlying investor sentiment we have, but we can have a ‘false positive’ with the correct mix of individual events. For EURUSD, the strong rally was clearly sourced through a mixture of a better outcome for the ECB decision and strong showing for Spain (details on both below). Looking to the yen crosses, discussion of BoJ stimulus was made tangible by the announcement that a large stimulus program was approved (more on that below). And, from the S&P 500, though it managed a technical close at five-year highs, there was little momentum and the daily performance was tepid.
Noting these concerns is not to mean that there can’t be an element of risk trends develop or that the markets won’t continue without the affirmation. With another round of the proper event risk, we can see the dollar suffer – though that is difficult to manage. Heading into the final trading day of the week, top event risk is the pre-New York open Wells Fargo 4Q earnings report. The US corporate sector’s financial health is a big ticket item that can truly alter risk trends’ bearing. Otherwise, we wait until next week and updates like China’s 4Q GDP release.
Euro Surges Higher after ECB Hold, Spain Bond Auction
The EURUSD pairing wasn’t the only place that the euro was showing remarkable strength. In fact, the currency managed rallies against safe havens and high yield (Aussie and Kiwi dollars) alike. This wasn’t a structural fundamental support like risk trends, rather it was an inherent catalyst that generated one of the most overwhelming advances for the single currency in months. It is easy to assign the responsibility for this move to a single factor – the ECB rate decision – but that wouldn’t be grasping the full picture. For the central bank released its decision and Draghi spoke, we learned that Spain was considering dropping a seniority clause for its rescue program and a bond sale for the country (2, 5 and 13-year debt) had met strong demand. That eases pressure on one of the region’s greatest threats for revive crisis. Therefore, when the market was met with the otherwise mundane, ‘unanimous’ vote for no cuts and a loose outlook for recovered growth – bulls took over.
Japanese Yen Crosses Revive Strongest Run Since 1989We have seen the USDJPY and yen crosses swing from modest retracement to aggressive trend revival. There was a clear build in pressure to drive the yen lower and the crosses higher Thursday that was sourced in news yesterday morning that officials were looking to set an extra budget to pay for fresh stimulus. That stimulus – a 10.3 trillion yen boost – was announced this morning. Prime Minister Abe has all but written off fiscal reform. Meanwhile, the USDJPY is on pace to close its ninth consecutive bullish week – a record not seen since February 1989.
Australian Dollar Closes 10-Month High, 1.0600 Up to Risk Trends
Like the S&P 500, we have to look at AUDUSD with a level of doubt. Despite the drive behind EURUSD, this more risk-sensitive pair managed only a modest advance – even if it did close just off of 1.0600 and thereby technically end at a March high. A technical break alone means little if there is no follow through to the move. Chinese trade strength was a first step, but solid carry interest doesn’t seem to be a primary presence in the pair’s current position. This will be a good pair to gauge risk trends.
British Pound Ignores BoE Rate Decision, Runs on ECB Aftershocks
As expected, the market would completely overlook the Bank of England’s (BoE) rate decision Thursday. With no change to the benchmark or asset purchases, the central bank would remain silent on their expectations and evaluations. Instead, pound traders were looking to the euro, which surged forward. If that is a reflection of financial or economic health, the UK stands to benefit.
Canadian Dollar Stumbles Against Most Counterparts
Another unusual standout – the lesser yield of the Canadian dollar would subordinate it to the Aussie and Kiwi currencies and ensure the native strength of the European currencies would overwhelm it. There was housing data released this past session, but it barely changed and would not distract from bigger moves. The trade figure for November coming up could have more influence if we aren’t risk focused again.
Gold Advances on Dollar Weakness but 1680 Could Curb Bulls
We’ve seen gold rally over 1 percent in a single day only five times over the past three months. The metal performance this past session though thanks to the exceptional weakness of the dollar. In the meantime, the ECB’s decision to hold rates is something of a weight to the metal and the confirmation of the Japanese stimulus program did nothing to further gold beyond a serious trendline resistance.
ECONOMIC DATA
Next 24 Hours
GMT | Currency | Release | Survey | Previous | Comments |
1:30 | CNY | Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC) | 2.30% | 2.00% | Positive trade data, PMI’s could bolster prices throughout economy. |
1:30 | CNY | Producer Price Index (YoY) (DEC) | -1.80% | -2.20% | |
5:00 | JPY | Eco Watchers Survey: Current (DEC) | - | 40 | Recession should weigh heavily on sentiment. |
5:00 | JPY | Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (DEC) | - | 41.9 | |
8:15 | CHF | Consumer Price Index (MoM) (DEC) | -0.10% | -0.30% | Rallied from 6/2012 low at -1.1% on a yearly measure. |
8:15 | CHF | Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC) | -0.30% | -0.40% | |
8:15 | CHF | CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (DEC) | - | -0.50% | Rallied from 6/2012 low at -1.2% on a yearly measure. |
8:15 | CHF | CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (DEC) | - | -0.10% | |
9:30 | GBP | Manufacturing Production (MoM) (NOV) | 0.50% | -1.30% | In downtrend since 8/2010 high at +6.2% on yearly basis, but stabilized in 2012. |
9:30 | GBP | Manufacturing Production (YoY) (NOV) | -1.30% | -2.10% | |
9:30 | GBP | Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV) | 0.80% | -0.80% | In downtrend since 8/2010 high at +4.3 on yearly basis, but stabilized in 2012. |
9:30 | GBP | Industrial Production (YoY)(NOV) | -1.90% | -3.00% | |
13:30 | USD | Import Price Index (MoM) (DEC) | 0.10% | -0.90% | Appears to have resumed downtrend since 7/2011 high at +13.7% (Yearly measure). |
13:30 | USD | Import Price Index (YoY) (DEC) | -1.50% | -1.60% | |
13:30 | USD | Trade Balance (NOV) | -$41.3B | -$42.2B | Deficit began to narrow from 1/2012 low at -52.2%. |
13:30 | CAD | International Merchandise Trade (C$) (NOV) | -0.60B | -0.17B | Improved by 93.75% since 7/2012 low at -2.7B. |
15:00 | GBP | NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (DEC) | - | 0.10% | Averaged 0.0% throughout 2012. |
19:00 | USD | Monthly Budget Statement (DEC) | -$1.0B | -$86.0B | This data has big swings, but overall running deep deficits since 9/2008. |
GMT | Currency | Upcoming Events & Speeches |
1:00 | USD | Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Town Hall Meeting in Minneapolis |
7:00 | EUR | EU's Rehn Speaks at Brussels Think Tank |
11:00 | USD | US Earnings – Wells Fargo |
14:30 | USD | Fed’s Plosser Speaks on Economic Outlook |
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visitTechnical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit ourPivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT | SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT | |||||||||
Currency | USDMXN | USDTRY | USDZAR | USDHKD | USDSGD | Currency | USDSEK | USDDKK | USDNOK | |
Resist 2 | 15.5900 | 2.0000 | 9.2080 | 7.8165 | 1.3650 | Resist 2 | 7.5800 | 6.1875 | 6.1150 | |
Resist 1 | 15.0000 | 1.9000 | 9.1900 | 7.8075 | 1.3250 | Resist 1 | 6.8155 | 5.9190 | 5.8200 | |
Spot | 12.5984 | 1.7682 | 8.6870 | 7.7527 | 1.2231 | Spot | 6.4871 | 5.6252 | 5.5230 | |
Support 1 | 12.5000 | 1.6500 | 8.5650 | 7.7490 | 1.2000 | Support 1 | 6.0800 | 5.5840 | 5.6000 | |
Support 2 | 11.5200 | 1.5725 | 6.5575 | 7.7450 | 1.1800 | Support 2 | 5.8085 | 5.3350 | 5.3040 | |
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT
Currency | EUR/USD | GBP/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CHF | USD/CAD | AUD/USD | NZD/USD | EUR/JPY | GBP/JPY |
Resist. 3 | 1.3365 | 1.6253 | 90.08 | 0.9221 | 0.9891 | 1.0662 | 0.8503 | 119.71 | 145.66 |
Resist. 2 | 1.3340 | 1.6228 | 89.83 | 0.9204 | 0.9877 | 1.0642 | 0.8483 | 119.33 | 145.22 |
Resist. 1 | 1.3314 | 1.6203 | 89.59 | 0.9187 | 0.9863 | 1.0621 | 0.8463 | 118.95 | 144.78 |
Spot | 1.3264 | 1.6152 | 89.10 | 0.9153 | 0.9835 | 1.0581 | 0.8423 | 118.18 | 143.90 |
Support 1 | 1.3214 | 1.6101 | 88.61 | 0.9119 | 0.9807 | 1.0541 | 0.8383 | 117.41 | 143.02 |
Support 2 | 1.3188 | 1.6076 | 88.37 | 0.9102 | 0.9793 | 1.0520 | 0.8363 | 117.03 | 142.58 |
Support 3 | 1.3163 | 1.6051 | 88.12 | 0.9085 | 0.9779 | 1.0500 | 0.8343 | 116.65 | 142.14 |
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--- Written by: John Kicklighter, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter
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