Forex Analysis: US Dollar Waits for Sentiment Cues as S&P 500 Stalls

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SymbolPriceChange
^USDOLLAR11,917.86-0.43

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is waiting for directional cues from risk sentiment trends as the S&P 500 stalls after hitting a four-month high.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices turned lower from resistance at the top of a rising channel set from mid-September, taking out near-term support at smaller channel bottom to expose the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 10038. A further push below that aims for the 61.8% level at 10009. Near-term resistance is at 10066, the 23.6% retracement, followed by the channel bottom at 10091.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Waits_for_Sentiment_Cues_as_SP_500_Stalls_body_Picture_4.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Waits for Sentiment Cues as S&P 500 Stalls

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing resistance at 1474.90, the September 14 high. A break upward targets the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 1459.70. Near-term support is at 1470.40, the 76.4% expansion, with a turn back below that targeting the 61.8% level at 1454.50.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Waits_for_Sentiment_Cues_as_SP_500_Stalls_body_Picture_3.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Waits for Sentiment Cues as S&P 500 Stalls

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are wedged between a major rising trend line set from mid-May 2012 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1674.78. Resistance is reinforced by a falling trend line established from the November 23 2012 high. A break higher exposes the 50% Fib at 1689.95. Alternatively, a push below the trend line (now at 1645.95) targets the channel bottom at 1616.31.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Waits_for_Sentiment_Cues_as_SP_500_Stalls_body_Picture_2.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Waits for Sentiment Cues as S&P 500 Stalls

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

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CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices took out trend line resistance set from late February, initially exposing support-turned-resistance at 94.61. A break above that targets a rising channel top at 96.01. The trend line (now at 92.84) has been recast as support, with a drop back below that aiming for the 92.00 figure.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Waits_for_Sentiment_Cues_as_SP_500_Stalls_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Waits for Sentiment Cues as S&P 500 Stalls

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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