Forex Analysis: US Dollar, S&P 500 Stuck as Risk Trends Lack Direction

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar and S&P 500 are drifting near familiar technical levels as risk sentiment trends struggle to find a clear-cut directional bias.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices after turning lower from resistance at the top of a rising channel set from mid-September, taking out near-term support at smaller channel bottom to expose the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 10038. A further push below that aims for the 61.8% level at 10009. Near-term resistance is at 10066, the 38.2% retracement, followed by the channel bottom at 10101.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_SP_500_Stuck_as_Risk_Trends_Lack_Direction_body_Picture_4.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar, S&P 500 Stuck as Risk Trends Lack Direction

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to stall below resistance at 1474.90, the September 14 high. A break upward targets the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 1459.70. Near-term support is at 1470.40, the 76.4% expansion, with a turn back below that targeting the 61.8% level at 1454.50.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_SP_500_Stuck_as_Risk_Trends_Lack_Direction_body_Picture_3.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar, S&P 500 Stuck as Risk Trends Lack Direction

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices took out resistance at 1674.78, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, a barrier reinforced by a falling trend line set from the November 23 high. Buyers now aim to challenge the 50% Fib at 1689.95, with a push above that targeting the 61.8% level at 1705.11. The 1674.78 level has been recast as support. A turn back below that eyes the November trend line (now at 1669.05) anew.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_SP_500_Stuck_as_Risk_Trends_Lack_Direction_body_Picture_2.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar, S&P 500 Stuck as Risk Trends Lack Direction

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

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CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below support-turned-resistance at 94.61, hinting a move lower is ahead. Support is clustered in the 92.06-93.15 area, with a break below that broadly targeting the 90.00 figure. Alternatively, a break above 94.61 targets a rising channel top at 96.35.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_SP_500_Stuck_as_Risk_Trends_Lack_Direction_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar, S&P 500 Stuck as Risk Trends Lack Direction

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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