Forex Analysis: Euro at Risk on PMI, Pound Eyes Chancellor Statement

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.1195-0.0089
GBPUSD=X1.3136-0.0051

The Euro may pull back as soft PMI data boosts ECB rate cut bets while the Pound may decline as Chancellor Osborne cuts the growth and budget outlook.

Talking Points

  • Euro May Pull Back as Soft PMI Data Boosts Dovish ECB Expectations
  • Pound at Risk if UK Chancellor Osborne Cuts Growth, Budget Outlook
  • Dollar May Rebound if US ADP, Services ISM Reports Underperforms

The final revision of November’s Eurozone PMI Composite reading is in focus on the economic calendar in European hours. A confirmation of flash estimates would put the reading at 45.8, a hair above the 40-month low at 45.7 recorded in October. The outcome may help shift traders’ attention away from Eurozone debt crisis and toward the deepening slump in regional economic growth, weighing on the Euro amid swelling expectations for a dovish turn in ECB rhetoric as the central bank delivers a policy announcement Thursday.

Meanwhile, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will make his Autumn Statement in the House of Commons, where he is expected to present updated economic and fiscal projections for the year head. Markets are expecting downgrades on both accounts, which may weigh on the British Pound. Separately, UK Services PMI is expected to show non-manufacturing sector activity narrowly improved in November after yielding the weakest expansion in close to two years in October.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to the US data docket, there November’s ADP Employment report and ISM Non-manufacturing Composite figure will be looked upon to set the tone for Friday’s much-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls print. Expectations call for relatively benign moderation on both fronts but the recent disappointing trend in US news-flow compared with economists’ forecasts warns the outcomes may underperform, weighing on risk appetite. This may boost the US Dollar as safe-haven capital flows buoy the benchmark currency anew. With that said, S&P 500 futures are pointing firmly higher, arguing for a risk-on bias heading into European hours

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Value of All Buildings SA (3Q)

9.6%

5.5%

1.5% (R+)

22:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Service Index (NOV)

47.1

-

42.8

0:01

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (NOV)

1.5%

-

1.5%

0:30

AUD

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q)

0.5%

0.6%

0.6%

0:30

AUD

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q)

3.1%

3.1%

3.8% (R+)

1:45

CNY

HSBC Services PMI (NOV)

52.1

-

53.5

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:45

EUR

Italian PMI Services (NOV)

46.0

46.0

Low

8:50

EUR

French PMI Services (NOV F)

46.1

46.1

Low

8:55

EUR

German PMI Services (NOV F)

48

48

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite (NOV F)

45.8

45.8

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Services (NOV F)

45.7

45.7

Medium

9:30

GBP

Official Reserves (Changes) (NOV)

-$512M

Low

9:30

GBP

PMI Services (NOV)

51.0

50.6

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-zone Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT)

-0.8%

-0.8%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-zone Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT)

-0.2%

-0.2%

Medium

12:30

GBP

UK’s Osborne: Autumn Statement in House of Commons

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3058

1.3145

GBPUSD

1.6082

1.6150

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

--

Get stories like this on the Yahoo app and discover more every day.
Download it now.
Loading...
  • US, Russia move closer to new Syria ceasefire after talks
    US, Russia move closer to new Syria ceasefire after talks AFP News - 1 hour 51 minutes ago

    Washington and Moscow made key steps towards agreeing a new ceasefire in Syria, but a final deal has not been reached, US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart said after talks Friday. Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei … More »

  • Business Highlights Associated Press - 1 hour 57 minutes ago

    ___ Yellen suggests rate hike is coming but offers no timetable Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Friday that the case for raising interest rates has strengthened in light of a solid job market and ... … More »

  • California governor signs bill banning coal-export funding Associated Press - 2 hours 17 minutes ago

    California Gov. Jerry Brown signed legislation Friday banning state transportation funding for new coal export terminals. The bill represents a victory for environmentalists as they campaign aggressively ... … More »

  • Stada shareholder AOC pushes through board reshuffle
    Stada shareholder AOC pushes through board reshuffle Reuters - 2 hours 19 minutes ago

    Stada (STAGn.DE) shareholder Active Ownership Capital (AOC) succeeded in convincing stock owners of the German drugmaker to vote off its supervisory board chairman in a voting marathon, but the activist investor fell short of its goal of replacing … More »

  • Dollar rises following Yellen remarks on rate hikes AFP - 3 hours ago

    The dollar rose Friday against the euro, the yen and the British pound following remarks from the US central bank favoring a near-term increase in interest rates. In a much-anticipated address, US Federal ... … More »

  • Global markets drift after Yellen speech
    Global markets drift after Yellen speech AFP News - 3 hours ago

    European and US equities markets were split on Friday after US Fed chief Janet Yellen suggested interest rates could rise in the near-term. In words carefully parsed by market watchers, Yellen said recent months had seen conditions in the US … More »

  • How the Dow Jones industrial average fared on Friday Associated Press - 4 hours ago

    Stocks ended on a weak note Friday after Federal Reserve officials said the case has strengthened for raising interest rates above the super-low levels that have helped fuel a seven-year bull market. Phone ... … More »

  • Stocks end mostly lower after Yellen speech
    Stocks end mostly lower after Yellen speech Associated Press - 4 hours ago

    Stocks ended mostly lower on Friday after Federal Reserve officials said the case has strengthened for raising interest rates above the super-low levels that have helped fuel a seven-year bull market. ... … More »

  • UN ready to help Colombia peace deal
    UN ready to help Colombia peace deal AFP News - 4 hours ago

    The UN Security Council on Friday warmly welcomed the historic peace deal reached between Colombia's government and FARC rebels, and pledged to help ensure the agreement takes hold. The council met behind closed doors two days after the Bogota … More »

  • Kerry, Lavrov hold marathon Syria talks
    Kerry, Lavrov hold marathon Syria talks AFP News - 4 hours ago

    US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held marathon talks in Geneva on Friday for an expected push towards resuming peace talks for war-ravaged Syria. Asked during a break how the meeting was proceeding, Lavrov … More »

  • US stocks mixed after Yellen says picture firming for rate hike AFP - 4 hours ago

    US stocks were mixed on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the case for a rate hike is strengthening, raising expectations of a move by year-end. Trade was fairly quiet as Yellen also ... … More »

  • Markets Right Now: Stocks end mostly lower on Wall Street Associated Press - 5 hours ago

    The latest on developments in global financial markets (all times local): 4:00 p.m. Stocks ended mostly lower on Wall Street, giving up a modest gain from earlier in the day after Fed Chair Janet Yellen ... … More »

  • Morales sees 'conspiracy' in Bolivia minister's murder
    Morales sees 'conspiracy' in Bolivia minister's murder AFP News - 5 hours ago

    Bolivian President Evo Morales said Friday that his government is the victim of a "political conspiracy" after protesting miners allegedly kidnapped and beat to death a minister who tried to negotiate with them. Defense Minister Reymi Ferreira … More »

  • New law makes insurance companies find, pay beneficiaries Associated Press - 5 hours ago

    Insurance companies will be required to locate beneficiaries of unclaimed life insurance policies in Illinois and pay them money they're owed under legislation that Gov. Bruce Rauner signed into law on ... … More »

  • Deals of the day-Mergers and acquisitions Reuters - 5 hours ago

    (Adds Alere, Fiat Chrysler; updates Rackspace) Aug 26 (Reuters) - The following bids, mergers, acquisitions and disposals were reported by 2000 GMT on Friday: ** Cloud services provider Rackspace Hosting ... … More »

  • Oil prices edge up but OPEC giants downplay output limits AFP - 5 hours ago

    Oil prices edged higher Friday but the market remained weak as OPEC's key producers cast doubt on the possibility of cutting output. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh on Friday said his country wanted ... … More »

  • Canada, hoping to boost profile, pledges peacekeepers to UN
    Canada, hoping to boost profile, pledges peacekeepers to UN AFP News - 5 hours ago

    Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government on Friday committed 600 troops and Can$450 million (US$350 million) over three years to United Nations peacekeeping operations around the world. Touted by the Liberal administration as a … More »

  • Grain lower, livestock mixed Associated Press - 5 hours ago

    Grain futures were lower Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade. Wheat for Sept. declined 17.75 cents at $3.8350 a bushel; Sept. corn lost 7.25 cents to 3.1625 a bushel; Sept. oats was fell 3.75 cents at ... … More »

  • Canada PM Trudeau to mount charm offensive in China: officials
    Canada PM Trudeau to mount charm offensive in China: officials AFP News - 5 hours ago

    Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will tour the Great Wall, shoot hoops with retired basketball star Yao Ming and meet with women entrepreneurs when he travels to China next week to bolster trade and diplomatic ties, his office said Friday. … More »

  • Oil steady in volatile session, down 2 percent for the week
    Oil steady in volatile session, down 2 percent for the week Reuters - 5 hours ago

    Oil prices were largely unchanged on Friday in a volatile session, as traders reacted to comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and reports of missile activity in Saudi Arabia. The market was taking its cues from the movement in the dollar, which has … More »

  • Dutch PM Mark Rutte announces third-term candidacy
    Dutch PM Mark Rutte announces third-term candidacy AFP News - 6 hours ago

    Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced Friday his candidacy to head the Dutch government for a third succesive term in office, as the countdown moves towards next year's parliamentary polls. "Rutte also informed his top party leadership about his … More »

  • Yellen's case for rate hike boosts dollar; stocks surrender gains
    Yellen's case for rate hike boosts dollar; stocks surrender gains Reuters - 7 hours ago

    U.S. equities gave up early gains on Friday, hurt by a surging U.S. dollar after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that the case for raising U.S. interest rates has strengthened in recent months. European stocks advanced, however, while oil … More »

  • 11 Turkish police killed in PKK suicide bombing
    11 Turkish police killed in PKK suicide bombing AFP News - 7 hours ago

    The outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) on Friday claimed a suicide truck bombing on a police building in Turkey's southeast that killed 11 officers and wounded dozens more. The blast came two days after the Turkish army launched an offensive … More »

  • British economy escapes Brexit blow, for now
    British economy escapes Brexit blow, for now Reuters - 8 hours ago

    Britain's high streets are heaving with shoppers despite June's shock vote to leave the European Union, big companies have reported few signs of distress and some tabloid newspapers are even talking about a post-Brexit economic boom. The … More »

  • RUBBER-Tokyo futures prices after evening session Aug 26 Reuters - 8 hours ago

    Following are prices for Tokyo rubber futures at the end of the Tokyo market's evening session on Aug 2016. Contract Day Volume Evening Volume * Aug 154.1 13 153.9 3 * Sep 155.6 41 156.5 66 * Oct 151.8 ... … More »

 
Recent Quotes
Symbol Price Change % Chg 
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
 
Sign-in to view quotes in your portfolios.

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.129+0.001+0.78%
    N21.SI
    1.855-0.040-2.11%
    MC0.SI
    2.84+0.02+0.71%
    C52.SI
    4.22-0.05-1.17%
    Z74.SI
    0.58-0.01-1.69%
    5TP.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.29+0.08+38.10%
    5VI.SI
    0.36+0.07+22.03%
    BPF.SI
    0.192+0.030+18.52%
    AYD.SI
    0.27+0.04+17.39%
    BLU.SI
    0.40+0.05+14.29%
    BFK.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.205-0.055-21.15%
    BTJ.SI
    0.34-0.06-15.00%
    BCD.SI
    0.39-0.06-13.33%
    AYB.SI
    0.31-0.04-11.43%
    5VP.SI
    0.24-0.02-9.43%
    BAZ.SI

Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3582+0.0051+0.38%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5196-0.0071-0.47%
    EURSGD=X
    1.7809-0.0034-0.19%
    GBPSGD=X
    74.6820+0.437+0.59%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.7047-0.0235-0.41%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.9663+0.0023+0.08%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,748.1885-70.3965-0.72%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.9062-0.0141-0.29%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0263-0.0043-0.42%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,324.00-0.60-0.05%
    GCZ16.CMX
    18.63+0.14+0.76%
    SIU16.CMX
    95.80-0.72-0.74%
    ^XAU
    2.080.00+0.10%
    HGU16.CMX
    47.29-0.04-0.08%
    CLV16.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.24+0.08
    ^FVX
    1.63+0.06
    ^TNX
    2.30+0.03
    ^TYX