Forex Analysis: Euro at Risk on ECB Rates Outlook, Pound May Rise

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.1229+0.0012
GBPUSD=X1.3025+0.0008

The Euro may fall as the ECB hints at rate cuts ahead amid deepening recession while the British Pound finds support as the BOE opts not to expand QE.

Talking Points

  • Pound Follow-Through May be Limited as BOE Withholds QE Expansion
  • Euro Vulnerable if ECB Hints Rate Cuts Ahead Amid Deepening Recession
  • NZ Dollar Sold as Unemployment Rate Hits 13-Yr High in Third Quarter

Interest rate decisions from the Bank of England (BOE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) headline the calendar in European hours. June’s expansion of BOE asset purchases runs its course this month and investors expect the central bank will opt not to top-up the program this time around. A backdrop of improving economic data since October’s sit-down – particularly the sharp upside surprise on third-quarter GDP figures – seems to reinforce the likelihood of such a scenario. This may offer near-term support for the British Pound, although follow-though may be limited considering traders appear to have priced in a status-quo decision already (according to data compiled by Credit Suisse).

Meanwhile, the abysmal run of Eurozone PMI data over recent months will have markets pining for growth-supportive measures from the ECB. Traders’ priced-in expectations as well as economists’ baseline forecasts point away from action this time around however. That will shift the spotlight to commentary from ECB President Mario Draghi at a press conference following the meeting. Clues about forthcoming stimulus measures are likely to weigh on the Euro, whereas their absence may prove supportive. Needless to say, a surprise rate cut this time around will likely prove particularly detrimental for the single currency.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade after a disappointing set of third-quarter Employment figures. The report showed the economy unexpectedly lost jobs in the three months through September, with overall employment down 0.4 percent from the prior quarter. The jobless rate shot higher to 7.3 percent, the highest in over 13 years. Forex traders took the outcome mean the RBNZ may be more likely to cut interest rates, eroding yield-based support for the Kiwi and sending the currency lower.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Unemployment Rate (3Q)

7.3%

6.7%

6.8%

21:45

NZD

Employment Change (QoQ) (3Q)

-0.4%

0.3%

-0.1%

21:45

NZD

Employment Change (YoY) (3Q)

0.0%

0.8%

0.6%

21:45

NZD

Participation Rate (QoQ) (3Q)

68.4%

68.4%

68.4%

23:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (OCT)

5.7%

-

5.3%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (MoM) (SEP)

-4.3%

-2.1%

-3.3%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY) (SEP)

-7.8%

-4.9%

-6.1%

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (¥) (SEP)

503.6B

761.3B

454.7B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (SEP)

-142.0B

206.2B

722.3B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance – BOP Basis (¥) (SEP)

-471.3B

-413.9B

-644.5B

23:50

JPY

Current Account Balance (YoY) (SEP)

-68.7%

-52.7%

4.2%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (OCT)

1.1%

1.1%

1.2%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (OCT)

0.9%

-

0.9%

0:30

AUD

Employment Change (OCT)

10.7K

0.5K

15.5K (R+)

0:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate (OCT)

5.4%

5.5%

5.4%

0:30

AUD

Full Time Employment Change (OCT)

18.7K

-

34.5K

0:30

AUD

Part Time Employment Change (OCT)

-8.0K

-

-19.0K (R-)

0:30

AUD

Participation Rate (OCT)

65.1%

65.2%

65.2%

2:00

JPY

Tokyo Average Office Vacancies (%)(OCT)

8.74

-

8.9

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (OCT)

6.0%

-

-7.0%

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (OCT)

39.0

40.5

41.2

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (OCT)

41.7

42.7

43.5

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (OCT)

2.9% (A)

2.8%

Medium

6:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate s.a. (OCT)

3.0% (A)

2.9%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Exports s.a. (MoM) (SEP)

-2.5% (A)

2.5%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Imports s.a. (MoM) (SEP)

-1.6% (A)

0.4%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Current Account (€) (SEP)

16.3B (A)

11.1B

Low

7:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (€) (SEP)

16.9B (A)

16.3B

Low

7:45

EUR

French Trade Balance (€) (SEP)

-5033M (A)

-5286M

Low

12:00

GBP

BOE Asset Purchase Target (NOV)

375B

375B

High

12:00

GBP

Bank of England Rate Decision (NOV 8)

0.50%

0.50%

High

12:45

ECB

Deposit Facility Rate (NOV 8)

0.00%

0.00%

High

12:45

EUR

European Central Bank Rate Decision (NOV 8)

0.75%

0.75%

High

13:30

EUR

ECB President Draghi Holds Press Conference

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2713

1.2852

GBPUSD

1.5946

1.6034

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

o be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

--

Get stories like this on the Yahoo app and discover more every day.
Download it now.
Loading...
  • Energy shares lead Asian stocks higher on OPEC output deal
    Energy shares lead Asian stocks higher on OPEC output deal Associated Press - 6 minutes ago

    Energy companies led a rally in Asian stock markets Thursday as investors welcomed news that OPEC nations planned to cut oil production for the first time in eight years in an effort to reduce a global ... … More »

  • Carmaker expects to break even in 3 years Business Times - 18 minutes ago

    SHAH ALAM: Proton Holdings Bhd expects to break even in three years by selling 5,000 units of its all-new Proton Saga a month. If we can sell 5,000 units a month, we can break even in three years,” said chief executive officer Datuk Ahmad Fuaad … More »

  • DRB-HICOM looking at 5 proposals for Proton partnership Business Times - 19 minutes ago

    SHAH ALAM: DRB-HICOM Bhd has short-listed five global carmakers to be its subsidiary Proton Holdings Bhd’s strategic partner. Group managing director Datuk Seri Syed Faisal Albar said the strategic partner would also own a stake in the national … More »

  • Petronas to review Canada project Business Times - 19 minutes ago

    KUALA LUMPUR: Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) will review a proposed C$36 billion (RM112.4 billion) liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Canada that was approved by Ottawa after a three-year wait. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s … More »

  • How You Can Get These 9 Irresistible Discounts Just By Being A Healthy Malaysian
    How You Can Get These 9 Irresistible Discounts Just By Being A Healthy Malaysian Vulcan Post - 22 minutes ago

    If you practise a healthy lifestyle, you’re probably aware of the benefits such as a lowered risk of disease, feeling better about your appearance and reduced stress levels. However, thanks to a unique insurance and health programme, you can now … … More »

  • If history holds, U.S. interest rates will start rising soon
    If history holds, U.S. interest rates will start rising soon Truewealth Publishing - 29 minutes ago

    Based on the relationship between U.S. presidential elections and interest rates, U.S. interest rates should be heading higher soon. As shown below, after 9 of the last 15 U.S. elections (since 1956), U.S. interest rates have gone up within the … More »

  • Oil prices surge after OPEC's surprise output cut deal
    Oil prices surge after OPEC's surprise output cut deal AFP News - 34 minutes ago

    Oil prices surged Thursday after the OPEC producers' group surprised the market with a deal to slash output. At the end of six hours of negotiations and weeks of horse trading, OPEC announced the plan to cut production to a level of 32.5-33 million … More »

  • Britain must explain Brexit strategy to limit uncertainty - think tank Reuters - 35 minutes ago

    Britain needs to begin explaining its Brexit strategy to avoid prolonged uncertainty for businesses and negotiating partners, a London-based think tank said on Thursday, warning that internal squabbling risked undermining the government's position. … More »

  • Tokyo shares up by break on oil deal AFP - 40 minutes ago

    Tokyo stocks rallied on Thursday, following upturns in US and European markets on a surprise deal by OPEC to cut oil production. Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei 225 index climbed 1.42 percent, or 233.78 points, ... … More »

  • The underground pipeline shaping North Korea's new capitalists Reuters - 42 minutes ago

    As the United States and other nations grasp for new ways to sanction Pyongyang in response to its latest nuclear test, some North Korean defectors see investment in its rudimentary market economy as a way to foment gradual change from within. Last … More »

  • Hong Kong Stocks Rise for Third Day as Oil Boosts Energy Shares Bloomberg - 44 minutes ago

    The Hang Seng Index climbed 0.5 percent at 10:30 a.m. local time, extending a quarterly rally. Cnooc Ltd. and China Shenhua Energy Co. advanced more than 4 percent, while China Oilfield Services Ltd. jumped the most since June, after U.S. crude … More »

  • JUST SOLD: The Orchard Residences unit for $14.7 mil
    JUST SOLD: The Orchard Residences unit for $14.7 mil The Edge Property - 45 minutes ago

    At The Orchard Residences, a 4,532 sq ft, four-bedroom unit was sold for $14.7 million, or $3,244 psf on September 15. This is the priciest transaction among non-landed homes in district 9 this year. On the second spot is the transaction of a 3,767 … More »

  • Oil prices, stocks up on surprise OPEC deal though gains seen fizzling
    Oil prices, stocks up on surprise OPEC deal though gains seen fizzling Reuters - 50 minutes ago

    Oil prices extended gains in Asia on Thursday, boosting stock markets, after OPEC members agreed to curb output in a surprise deal, though investors were wary of chasing markets higher as the U.S. presidential election nears. MSCI's broadest index … More »

  • Better oil prices lift ringgit higher against US dollar Business Times - 1 hour 5 minutes ago

    KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit rebounded from three days of losses to open higher against the US dollar this morning, lifted by stronger oil prices, dealers said. At 9 am, the ringgit traded at 4.1120/1170 to the US dollar from 4.1360/1410 on Wednesday. … More »

  • 10 Ways to Maximise Your Closet Space
    10 Ways to Maximise Your Closet Space The Edge Property - 1 hour 19 minutes ago

    Source Weekday mornings usually find us scampering across our room and raiding our closets until we find the outfit we want for the day. For the organised one, this shouldn’t be a problem—clothes are neatly lined up and folded immaculately that it’s … More »

  • Oil prices climb on OPEC deal, lack of detail caps gains
    Oil prices climb on OPEC deal, lack of detail caps gains Reuters - 1 hour 21 minutes ago

    Oil futures extended gains on Thursday after rising nearly 6 percent the day before on a surprise move by OPEC to curb crude output. "The decision really took market by surprise - prices took a big leap, now there's pause for reflection," said Ben … More »

  • China’s Big Ball of Money Isn’t Going Anywhere Near Stocks (1) Bloomberg - 1 hour 24 minutes ago

    The Shanghai Composite Index will end the year at 3,075, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg poll of 10 strategists and fund managers. That implies a 13 percent drop over the 12-month period, the steepest in five years, and a gain of 2.9 … More »

  • Yuan Derivatives Trade Dries Up as Drop Swells Hedging Costs (1) Bloomberg - 1 hour 37 minutes ago

    Daily trading in yuan derivatives, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the total for the currency, slumped 30 percent from three years earlier, data from the Bank for International Settlements show. While central banks will need to buy the … More »

  • Asian Stocks Gain With Oil on OPEC Deal, Energy Shares Advance Bloomberg - 1 hour 40 minutes ago

    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.7 percent to 141.82 as of 10:31 a.m. in Tokyo, set for its best quarter since the first three months of 2012. OPEC agreed to drop production to a range of 32.5 million to 33 million barrels per day following a … More »

  • Overseas Investors Offload Most Japan Bonds Since at Least 2014 Bloomberg - 1 hour 44 minutes ago

    It was the third consecutive week that non-Japanese investors, who hold about 5 percent of the nation’s government bonds, pared their holdings. “Government bond redemptions on Sept. 20 played a major role in overseas investors’ net selling last … More »

  • Global fintech startup Trunomi sets sights on Asia with US$3M seed funding
    Global fintech startup Trunomi sets sights on Asia with US$3M seed funding e27 - 1 hour 45 minutes ago

    One of the investors is Singapore-based fintech VC firm Fintonia Group Global fintech startup Trunomi announced that it has raised a US$3 million seed funding round led by Singapore-based fintech venture capital (VC) firm Fintonia Group and US-based … More »

  • Why Singapore savings bonds should be a part of your portfolio
    Why Singapore savings bonds should be a part of your portfolio ZUU online - 1 hour 54 minutes ago

    The second half of 2015 saw the Monetary Authority of Singapore introduce the Singapore Savings B... … More »

  • Tokyo shares rally after surprise oil deal AFP - 2 hours 2 minutes ago

    Tokyo stocks opened higher on Thursday after US and European markets rallied on a surprise deal by OPEC to cut oil production. Officials from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, meeting ... … More »

  • Six blue-chip stocks for investors to buy in Singapore
    Six blue-chip stocks for investors to buy in Singapore ZUU online - 2 hours 10 minutes ago

    So, perhaps you’ve seen the movie Wall Street and walked away in total awe of Gordon Gekko. You’r... … More »

  • 4 Office Etiquettes Your Annoying Colleague Needs To Learn ASAP
    4 Office Etiquettes Your Annoying Colleague Needs To Learn ASAP GET.com - 2 hours 16 minutes ago

    Have you ever had an annoying colleague, Singaporean or not, who never fails to make practically... … More »

 
Recent Quotes
Symbol Price Change % Chg 
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
 
Sign-in to view quotes in your portfolios.

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.157+0.006+3.97%
    N21.SI
    0.114+0.005+4.59%
    40E.SI
    0.295+0.020+7.27%
    5ME.SI
    0.127+0.005+4.10%
    A50.SI
    0.158+0.002+1.28%
    AFC.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.35+0.05+16.67%
    AYV.SI
    0.119+0.015+14.42%
    A7S.SI
    0.33+0.04+12.63%
    BJE.SI
    0.27+0.03+12.50%
    AWI.SI
    0.255+0.025+10.87%
    BJD.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.09-0.01-14.29%
    42D.SI
    0.25-0.03-10.71%
    F86.SI
    0.151-0.016-9.58%
    5WJ.SI
    0.525-0.035-6.25%
    AWZ.SI
    0.16-0.01-5.88%
    5G1.SI

Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3610+0.0021+0.15%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5282+0.0043+0.28%
    EURSGD=X
    1.7726+0.0043+0.24%
    GBPSGD=X
    74.4420+0.33+0.45%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.6956-0.0085-0.15%
    SGDHKD=X
    3.0209-0.0107-0.35%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,515.6426-45.96-0.48%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.9022-0.008-0.16%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0473+0.0027+0.26%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,328.90+5.20+0.39%
    GCZ16.CMX
    19.33+0.21+1.12%
    SIZ16.CMX
    95.67+2.69+2.89%
    ^XAU
    2.20+0.02+0.73%
    HGZ16.CMX
    43.85+0.41+0.94%
    CLV16.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.13+0.02
    ^FVX
    1.57+0.01
    ^TNX
    2.29+0.01
    ^TYX