Forex Analysis: Euro Looks to EU Budget Talks, PMI Data for Direction

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.1008+0.0078

The Euro may be in for an active session as traders size up November’s set of flash PMI figures while EU leaders gather to hash out the region’s seven-year budget.

Talking Points

  • Euro May See Selling Pressure if PMI Data Boosts ECB Rate Cut Bets
  • EU Budget Deal May Prove Harder to Achieve Amid Euro Debt Crisis

The preliminary set of November’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations suggest the region-wide composite gauge will remain unchanged 45.7, showing manufacturing- and service-sector activity contracted at the fastest pace since June 2009 for a second consecutive month.

A print in line with expectations is unlikely to yield a strong reaction from the Euro in and of itself. Indeed, traders have had ample opportunity to price in the depth of the Eurozone recession as it stands at the moment. A disappointing outcome may weigh on the single currency however as compounding malaise boosts expectations of additional ECB easing.

Meanwhile, EU leaders will meet to hammer out the region’s seven-year budget. Familiar issues have resurfaced, with France arguing against proposed cuts to its cherished Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) that heavily subsidizes the country’s farmers while the UK threatens a veto if spending is not reduced to mirror austerity at the member-state level.

While this is a familiar battle that has emerged time and again in EU budget negotiations only to end in compromise, the backdrop of the Eurozone debt crisis may make for a more heated outing this time. EU coffers are a major source of cash for those “PIIGS” countries already running bailout programs.

A final deal is not due until tomorrow but traders will keep a close eye on sideline commentary to gauge the tone of the proceedings. Signs of deadlock may spark risk aversion, boosting the safe-haven US Dollar.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Net Migration s.a. (NOV 16)

260

-

140 (R+)

1:45

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (NOV)

50.4

-

49.5

5:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (OCT)

-4.0%

-

-2.0%

7:30

JPY

Bank of Japan Releases Monthly Report

-

-

-

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

-

EUR

EU Leaders Hold Summit on Seven-Year Budget

-

-

High

8:00

EUR

French PMI Services (NOV P)

45.0

44.6

Low

8:00

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (NOV P)

44.0

43.7

Low

8:30

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (NOV A)

46.0

46

High

8:30

EUR

German PMI Services (NOV A)

48.3

48.4

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite (NOV A)

45.7

45.7

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Services (NOV A)

46.0

46

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (NOV A)

45.6

45.4

High

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (NOV)

-20

-23

Medium

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (NOV)

7

7

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2766

1.2896

GBPUSD

1.5905

1.6003

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3714-0.0043-0.31%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5097+0.0061+0.40%
    EURSGD=X
    2.1436-0.0023-0.11%
    GBPSGD=X
    90.3605+0.0829+0.09%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.6530+0.0167+0.30%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.7820-0.002-0.07%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,833.0557+7.502+0.08%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.5274+0.0142+0.31%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0037+0.0007+0.07%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,093.80+5.10+0.47%
    GCZ15.CMX
    14.72+0.02+0.16%
    SIU15.CMX
    47.35+0.71+1.52%
    ^XAU
    2.36-0.02-0.69%
    HGU15.CMX
    48.03-0.88-1.80%
    CLV15.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.55-0.07
    ^FVX
    2.21-0.06
    ^TNX
    2.92-0.04
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.455-0.065-12.50%
    N21.SI
    2.30-0.20-8.00%
    MC0.SI
    0.315-0.005-1.56%
    E5H.SI
    0.315+0.005+1.61%
    5WA.SI
    0.134-0.005-3.60%
    5DN.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.148+0.020+15.62%
    T77.SI
    0.18+0.02+12.50%
    AVX.SI
    0.365+0.035+10.61%
    5DS.SI
    0.194+0.015+8.38%
    Y08.SI
    0.37+0.03+7.25%
    P9D.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.20-0.08-27.27%
    5UO.SI
    0.325-0.065-16.67%
    5I3.SI
    0.205-0.040-16.33%
    5GD.SI
    0.17-0.03-15.00%
    D79.SI
    0.315-0.055-14.86%
    Y35.SI