Forex Analysis: Euro Looks to EU Budget Talks, PMI Data for Direction

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.1200+0.0003

The Euro may be in for an active session as traders size up November’s set of flash PMI figures while EU leaders gather to hash out the region’s seven-year budget.

Talking Points

  • Euro May See Selling Pressure if PMI Data Boosts ECB Rate Cut Bets
  • EU Budget Deal May Prove Harder to Achieve Amid Euro Debt Crisis

The preliminary set of November’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations suggest the region-wide composite gauge will remain unchanged 45.7, showing manufacturing- and service-sector activity contracted at the fastest pace since June 2009 for a second consecutive month.

A print in line with expectations is unlikely to yield a strong reaction from the Euro in and of itself. Indeed, traders have had ample opportunity to price in the depth of the Eurozone recession as it stands at the moment. A disappointing outcome may weigh on the single currency however as compounding malaise boosts expectations of additional ECB easing.

Meanwhile, EU leaders will meet to hammer out the region’s seven-year budget. Familiar issues have resurfaced, with France arguing against proposed cuts to its cherished Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) that heavily subsidizes the country’s farmers while the UK threatens a veto if spending is not reduced to mirror austerity at the member-state level.

While this is a familiar battle that has emerged time and again in EU budget negotiations only to end in compromise, the backdrop of the Eurozone debt crisis may make for a more heated outing this time. EU coffers are a major source of cash for those “PIIGS” countries already running bailout programs.

A final deal is not due until tomorrow but traders will keep a close eye on sideline commentary to gauge the tone of the proceedings. Signs of deadlock may spark risk aversion, boosting the safe-haven US Dollar.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Net Migration s.a. (NOV 16)

260

-

140 (R+)

1:45

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (NOV)

50.4

-

49.5

5:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (OCT)

-4.0%

-

-2.0%

7:30

JPY

Bank of Japan Releases Monthly Report

-

-

-

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

-

EUR

EU Leaders Hold Summit on Seven-Year Budget

-

-

High

8:00

EUR

French PMI Services (NOV P)

45.0

44.6

Low

8:00

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (NOV P)

44.0

43.7

Low

8:30

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (NOV A)

46.0

46

High

8:30

EUR

German PMI Services (NOV A)

48.3

48.4

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite (NOV A)

45.7

45.7

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Services (NOV A)

46.0

46

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (NOV A)

45.6

45.4

High

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (NOV)

-20

-23

Medium

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (NOV)

7

7

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2766

1.2896

GBPUSD

1.5905

1.6003

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.4060-0.0003-0.02%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5746+0.00010.00%
    EURSGD=X
    2.0290+0.0003+0.02%
    GBPSGD=X
    82.1428-0.0581-0.07%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.5427+0.0019+0.03%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.9791+0.0006+0.02%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,751.3467+2.0068+0.02%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.6767+0.0017+0.04%
    SGDCNY=X
    0.9944-0.0014-0.14%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,192.80-5.10-0.43%
    GCJ16.CMX
    15.40-0.03-0.17%
    SIH16.CMX
    56.78+1.47+2.66%
    ^XAU
    2.090.00+0.10%
    HGH16.CMX
    30.12-0.77-2.49%
    CLH16.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.15-0.10
    ^FVX
    1.74-0.11
    ^TNX
    2.56-0.12
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.33+0.02+4.76%
    N21.SI
    3.70+0.22+6.32%
    Z74.SI
    1.68+0.05+3.07%
    MC0.SI
    0.385+0.010+2.67%
    E5H.SI
    0.705+0.025+3.68%
    G13.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.405+0.065+19.12%
    T4B.SI
    0.475+0.075+18.75%
    Y06.SI
    0.23+0.03+15.00%
    S9B.SI
    0.40+0.05+14.29%
    BJE.SI
    0.144+0.014+10.77%
    AWS.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.34-0.05-12.82%
    MN5.SI
    0.118-0.012-9.23%
    AWO.SI
    0.205-0.020-8.89%
    AYL.SI
    0.505-0.045-8.18%
    A05.SI
    0.193-0.017-8.10%
    S71.SI