Forex Analysis: Euro Looks to EU Budget Talks, PMI Data for Direction

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.11140.00

The Euro may be in for an active session as traders size up November’s set of flash PMI figures while EU leaders gather to hash out the region’s seven-year budget.

Talking Points

  • Euro May See Selling Pressure if PMI Data Boosts ECB Rate Cut Bets
  • EU Budget Deal May Prove Harder to Achieve Amid Euro Debt Crisis

The preliminary set of November’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations suggest the region-wide composite gauge will remain unchanged 45.7, showing manufacturing- and service-sector activity contracted at the fastest pace since June 2009 for a second consecutive month.

A print in line with expectations is unlikely to yield a strong reaction from the Euro in and of itself. Indeed, traders have had ample opportunity to price in the depth of the Eurozone recession as it stands at the moment. A disappointing outcome may weigh on the single currency however as compounding malaise boosts expectations of additional ECB easing.

Meanwhile, EU leaders will meet to hammer out the region’s seven-year budget. Familiar issues have resurfaced, with France arguing against proposed cuts to its cherished Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) that heavily subsidizes the country’s farmers while the UK threatens a veto if spending is not reduced to mirror austerity at the member-state level.

While this is a familiar battle that has emerged time and again in EU budget negotiations only to end in compromise, the backdrop of the Eurozone debt crisis may make for a more heated outing this time. EU coffers are a major source of cash for those “PIIGS” countries already running bailout programs.

A final deal is not due until tomorrow but traders will keep a close eye on sideline commentary to gauge the tone of the proceedings. Signs of deadlock may spark risk aversion, boosting the safe-haven US Dollar.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Net Migration s.a. (NOV 16)

260

-

140 (R+)

1:45

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (NOV)

50.4

-

49.5

5:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (OCT)

-4.0%

-

-2.0%

7:30

JPY

Bank of Japan Releases Monthly Report

-

-

-

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

-

EUR

EU Leaders Hold Summit on Seven-Year Budget

-

-

High

8:00

EUR

French PMI Services (NOV P)

45.0

44.6

Low

8:00

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (NOV P)

44.0

43.7

Low

8:30

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (NOV A)

46.0

46

High

8:30

EUR

German PMI Services (NOV A)

48.3

48.4

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite (NOV A)

45.7

45.7

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Services (NOV A)

46.0

46

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (NOV A)

45.6

45.4

High

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (NOV)

-20

-23

Medium

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (NOV)

7

7

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2766

1.2896

GBPUSD

1.5905

1.6003

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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Market Data

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    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
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    USDSGD=X
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    EURSGD=X
    2.0955-0.0004-0.02%
    GBPSGD=X
    91.3060+0.0616+0.07%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.7610+0.001+0.02%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.8150+0.0005+0.02%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,933.5156+1.8623+0.02%
    SGDIDR=X
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    SGDCNY=X
    1.0116-0.0002-0.02%
    AUDSGD=X
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    GCQ15.CMX
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    SIZ15.CMX
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    ^XAU
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    HGU15.CMX
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    CLQ15.NYM
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MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
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    5DN.SI
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    5WA.SI
    0.189+0.001+0.53%
    5MC.SI
    0.865+0.015+1.76%
    N03.SI
    0.4150.0000.00%
    E5H.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.55+0.09+20.88%
    BAJ.SI
    0.515+0.075+17.05%
    AWV.SI
    0.215+0.031+16.85%
    AZR.SI
    0.22+0.03+15.79%
    AZT.SI
    0.54+0.06+12.50%
    AWZ.SI
  • % Losers
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    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.06-0.06-50.00%
    5TW.SI
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    40R.SI
    0.31-0.09-22.50%
    AVW.SI
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    5I1.SI
    0.33-0.05-13.16%
    5UL.SI