Forex Analysis: Euro Looks to EU Budget Talks, PMI Data for Direction

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.3838+0.0022

The Euro may be in for an active session as traders size up November’s set of flash PMI figures while EU leaders gather to hash out the region’s seven-year budget.

Talking Points

  • Euro May See Selling Pressure if PMI Data Boosts ECB Rate Cut Bets
  • EU Budget Deal May Prove Harder to Achieve Amid Euro Debt Crisis

The preliminary set of November’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations suggest the region-wide composite gauge will remain unchanged 45.7, showing manufacturing- and service-sector activity contracted at the fastest pace since June 2009 for a second consecutive month.

A print in line with expectations is unlikely to yield a strong reaction from the Euro in and of itself. Indeed, traders have had ample opportunity to price in the depth of the Eurozone recession as it stands at the moment. A disappointing outcome may weigh on the single currency however as compounding malaise boosts expectations of additional ECB easing.

Meanwhile, EU leaders will meet to hammer out the region’s seven-year budget. Familiar issues have resurfaced, with France arguing against proposed cuts to its cherished Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) that heavily subsidizes the country’s farmers while the UK threatens a veto if spending is not reduced to mirror austerity at the member-state level.

While this is a familiar battle that has emerged time and again in EU budget negotiations only to end in compromise, the backdrop of the Eurozone debt crisis may make for a more heated outing this time. EU coffers are a major source of cash for those “PIIGS” countries already running bailout programs.

A final deal is not due until tomorrow but traders will keep a close eye on sideline commentary to gauge the tone of the proceedings. Signs of deadlock may spark risk aversion, boosting the safe-haven US Dollar.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Net Migration s.a. (NOV 16)

260

-

140 (R+)

1:45

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (NOV)

50.4

-

49.5

5:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (OCT)

-4.0%

-

-2.0%

7:30

JPY

Bank of Japan Releases Monthly Report

-

-

-

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

-

EUR

EU Leaders Hold Summit on Seven-Year Budget

-

-

High

8:00

EUR

French PMI Services (NOV P)

45.0

44.6

Low

8:00

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (NOV P)

44.0

43.7

Low

8:30

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (NOV A)

46.0

46

High

8:30

EUR

German PMI Services (NOV A)

48.3

48.4

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite (NOV A)

45.7

45.7

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Services (NOV A)

46.0

46

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (NOV A)

45.6

45.4

High

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (NOV)

-20

-23

Medium

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (NOV)

7

7

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2766

1.2896

GBPUSD

1.5905

1.6003

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.2498-0.0011-0.09%
    USDSGD=X
    1.7295+0.0013+0.07%
    EURSGD=X
    2.1036+0.0023+0.11%
    GBPSGD=X
    81.6545-0.0818-0.10%
    SGDJPY=X
    6.2045+0.0057+0.09%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.5907-0.0011-0.04%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,151.9443+8.9268+0.10%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.9781+0.0051+0.10%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.1713-0.0006-0.05%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,302.10-1.40-0.11%
    GCM14.CMX
    19.58-0.05-0.28%
    SIK14.CMX
    90.83-1.04-1.14%
    ^XAU
    3.04+0.01+0.38%
    HGK14.CMX
    104.12+0.36+0.35%
    CLK14.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.65+0.04
    ^FVX
    2.64+0.01
    ^TNX
    3.45-0.01
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.116-0.001-0.85%
    B22.SI
    2.27+0.090+4.13%
    5ME.SI
    0.48+0.020+4.35%
    5GJ.SI
    2.20+0.010+0.46%
    JS8.SI
    0.1120.0000.00%
    A78.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.17+0.010+6.25%
    T16.SI
    0.138+0.006+4.55%
    5BM.SI
    0.235+0.010+4.44%
    5G9.SI
    0.235+0.010+4.44%
    5G1.SI
    0.48+0.020+4.35%
    5GJ.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.255-0.015-5.56%
    5AM.SI
    0.58-0.030-4.92%
    544.SI
    0.275-0.005-1.79%
    M1Z.SI
    0.2850.0000.00%
    A50.SI
    0.295-0.005-1.67%
    GG7.SI