Forex Analysis: Euro Up on Greece Hopes, Aussie Sold Before RBA Meet
The Euro gained on hopes Greece was closer to firmly securing bailout cash as Athens initiated a debt buyback. The Aussie fell on RBA rate cut bets.
Talking Points
Australian Dollar Sinks on Swelling RBA Rate Cut Expectations
Euro Outperforms as EZ FinMins Meet, Greece Begins Buyback
UK, Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs in Focus on the Data Docket
The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade as forex traders looked ahead to tomorrow’s RBA interest rate decision. Priced-in expectations point to a 92 percent probability of a 25bps rate cut. The Euro proved strongest at the start of the trading week as Eurozone finance ministers prepared to gather in Brussels once again. The spotlight is on a Greek debt buyback, the successful outcome of which is critical securing the continued flow of bailout funds. For its part, the Athens offered to repurchase €10 billion of its outstanding debt today.
On the economic data front, the final revision of November’s Eurozone Manufacturing PMI reading is expected to confirm a print at 46.2, showing factor-sector activity shank for a 16th consecutive month (albeit at a slower pace than in October). A significant downward revision may undermine Euro buoyancy as traders reconsider the possibility of a dovish turn at this week’s ECB policy meeting. UK Manufacturing PMI is also on tap, with forecast calling for a slight nudge higher to 48.0 in November from 47.5 in the prior month. Absent an unexpected push lower, the result is unlikely to yield a lasting impact on price action given its limited scope to nudge BOE policy expectations ahead of this week’s MPC sit-down.
Asia Session: What Happened
GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
21:45 | NZD | Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (3Q) | -3.2% | -1.5% | -2.6% (R-) |
22:30 | AUD | AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (NOV) | 43.6 | - | 45.2 |
23:30 | AUD | TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (NOV) | -0.1% | - | 0.1% |
23:30 | AUD | TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (NOV) | 2.5% | - | 2.4% |
23:30 | AUD | RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (NOV) | 0.0% | - | -1.0% |
23:50 | JPY | Capital Spending (3Q) | 2.2% | 4.4% | 7.7% |
23:50 | JPY | Capital Spending excl Software(3Q) | 2.4% | 1.0% | 6.6% |
23:50 | JPY | Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (OCT) | 0.26% | - | 0.25% |
0:01 | GBP | Lloyds Business Barometer (NOV) | 17 | - | 17 |
0:01 | GBP | Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (NOV) | -0.1% | - | -0.1% |
0:01 | GBP | Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (NOV) | -0.3% | - | -0.4% |
0:30 | AUD | Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (3Q) | -2.9% | -3.0% | -0.3% (R+) |
0:30 | AUD | Inventories (3Q) | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% (R-) |
0:30 | AUD | Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (OCT) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
0:30 | AUD | ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (NOV) | -2.9% | - | -4.6% |
1:00 | CNY | Non-manufacturing PMI (NOV) | 55.6 | - | 55.5 |
1:45 | CNY | HSBC Manufacturing PMI (NOV) | 50.5 | 50.4 | 49.5 |
5:00 | JPY | Vehicle Sales (YoY) (NOV) | -3.3% | - | -9.0% |
5:30 | AUD | RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (NOV) | -11.6% | - | -16.2% (R-) |
5:30 | AUD | RBA Commodity Price Index (NOV) | 87.0 | - | 87.2 (R-) |
Euro Session: What to Expect
GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
8:15 | CHF | Retail Sales – Real (YoY) (OCT) | 3.8% | 5.4% | Medium |
8:30 | CHF | SVME Manufacturing PMI (NOV) | 47 | 46.1 | Medium |
8:45 | EUR | Italian PMI Manufacturing (NOV) | 46.0 | 45.5 | Low |
8:50 | EUR | French PMI Manufacturing (NOV F) | 44.7 | 44.7 | Low |
8:55 | EUR | German PMI Manufacturing (NOV F) | 46.8 | 46.8 | Medium |
9:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (NOV F) | 46.2 | 46.2 | Medium |
9:30 | GBP | PMI Manufacturing (NOV) | 48.0 | 47.5 | Medium |
16:00 | EUR | Italian Budget Balance (NOV) | - | -13.1B | Low |
16:00 | EUR | Italian Budget Balance YTD (NOV) | - | -58.5B | Low |
16:00 | EUR | Eurozone Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels | - | - | High |
17:00 | EUR | Italian New Car Registrations (YoY) (NOV) | - | -12.39% | Low |
Critical Levels **
CCY | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
EURUSD | 1.2960 | 1.3114 |
GBPUSD | 1.5980 | 1.6096 |
** Intraday support and resistance levels are derived from Pivot Points
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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