FOREX ANALYSIS: Euro Forecast Clouded

ssi_eur-usd_body_Picture_6.png, FOREX ANALYSIS: Euro Forecast Clouded

Retail forex traders are once again net-long the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) versus the Euro, and the shift in sentiment gives us clear pause in our earlier calls for EURUSD weakness. We most often use our proprietary Speculative Sentiment Index as a contrarian indicator to price action; if the majority of retail traders are short EURUSD, we prefer to be long.

In fact, the number of traders short grew by 16 percent through the past week, while traders long fell by 4 percent. As a result we see that there are now 53% of traders in our sample are short EURUSD—the first time we’ve seen traders net-short in nearly two weeks.

Our technical forecast for the euro remains somewhat bearish. Yet we may need to wait for a noteworthy shift in retail FX trader sentiment before taking a strong stance in favor of EURUSD short positions.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

New to FX markets? Learn more in our video trading guide.

Contact David via

Twitter at https://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

Facebook at http://www.Facebook.com/DRodriguezFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

Loading...
 
Recent Quotes
Symbol Price Change % Chg 
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
 
Sign-in to view quotes in your portfolios.

Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.2503-0.0028-0.22%
    USDSGD=X
    1.7282-0.0029-0.17%
    EURSGD=X
    2.1002+0.0042+0.20%
    GBPSGD=X
    81.8400+0.5437+0.67%
    SGDJPY=X
    6.2021+0.0148+0.24%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.5930+0.0043+0.17%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,183.3604+58.3506+0.64%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.9753+0.0107+0.21%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.1733+0.0003+0.02%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,300.40+0.10+0.01%
    GCM14.CMX
    19.58+0.10+0.49%
    SIK14.CMX
    91.37-0.51-0.55%
    ^XAU
    3.03+0.04+1.32%
    HGK14.CMX
    103.63-0.12-0.12%
    CLK14.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.63+0.02
    ^FVX
    2.64+0.02
    ^TNX
    3.47+0.01
    ^TYX

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.117-0.006-4.88%
    B22.SI
    1.275+0.020+1.59%
    N21.SI
    2.190.0000.00%
    JS8.SI
    0.605+0.015+2.54%
    E5H.SI
    0.97+0.060+6.59%
    B20.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.445+0.055+14.10%
    5UL.SI
    0.20+0.020+11.11%
    567.SI
    0.174+0.013+8.07%
    540.SI
    0.67+0.050+8.06%
    5VT.SI
    0.425+0.030+7.59%
    5FD.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.096-0.011-10.28%
    S13.SI
    0.315-0.025-7.35%
    O08.SI
    0.139-0.010-6.71%
    5GB.SI
    0.30-0.020-6.25%
    502.SI
    0.132-0.008-5.71%
    5BM.SI