Forex Analysis: Dollar Probes Higher, S&P 500 Waits for Follow-Through

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
^USDOLLAR11,998.79-7.18

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is probing cautiously higher but a well-supported rally will need matching follow-through on bearish cues emerging in S&P 500 technical positioning.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices put in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern above support at 9933, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, hinting a move higher is ahead. Initial resistance lines up at 9983, the underside of a rising channel set from mid-September (9980) reinforced by the 14.6% Fib (9986). A break above that targets the November 21 close at 10046. Alternatively, a drop below 9933 initially exposes the 38.2% level at 9848.

Forex_Analysis_Dollar_Probes_Higher_SP_500_Waits_for_Follow-Through_body_Picture_4.png, Forex Analysis: Dollar Probes Higher, S&P 500 Waits for Follow-Through

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern below resistance in the 1424.90-1430.90 area, hinting the upward correction witnessed since mid-September may be over and the dominant down trend ready to resume (although follow-through has yet to materialize). Initial support lines up at 1406.20, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that exposing the 23.6% mark at 1394.30. Alternatively, a push back above 1430.90 targets 1466.10.

Forex_Analysis_Dollar_Probes_Higher_SP_500_Waits_for_Follow-Through_body_Picture_3.png, Forex Analysis: Dollar Probes Higher, S&P 500 Waits for Follow-Through

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke lower after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, taking out support at a rising trend line set from late June. Sellers now aim to challenge the November 5 low at 1672.50. The trend line (now at 1711.06) has been recast as resistance, with a push back above that aiming to challenge 1752.55.

Forex_Analysis_Dollar_Probes_Higher_SP_500_Waits_for_Follow-Through_body_Picture_2.png, Forex Analysis: Dollar Probes Higher, S&P 500 Waits for Follow-Through

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

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CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick. A bearish continuation Flag chart pattern now appears to be in the works, with a break of support at 85.76 confirming the setup and initially exposing the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 84.04. Near-term, resistance is at 89.19. A push above that aims for the Flag top at 90.76.

Forex_Analysis_Dollar_Probes_Higher_SP_500_Waits_for_Follow-Through_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Analysis: Dollar Probes Higher, S&P 500 Waits for Follow-Through

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3650-0.0041-0.30%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5076-0.0112-0.74%
    EURSGD=X
    2.1289-0.0014-0.07%
    GBPSGD=X
    90.4945+0.4646+0.52%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.6783+0.0168+0.30%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.7892-0.0009-0.03%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,853.4824+8.3242+0.08%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.5485+0.0115+0.25%
    SGDCNY=X
    0.9989+0.0039+0.39%
    AUDSGD=X
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    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,094.40-2.00-0.18%
    GCQ15.CMX
    14.65+0.05+0.31%
    SIU15.CMX
    47.43+0.77+1.64%
    ^XAU
    2.40+0.05+1.95%
    HGU15.CMX
    47.51+0.12+0.25%
    CLU15.NYM
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    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.59+0.01
    ^FVX
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    ^TNX
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    ^TYX

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    E5H.SI
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    BS6.SI
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