Forex Analysis: Dollar Forecast to Strengthen on Fiscal Cliff, Israel Conflict

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
^USDOLLAR11,956.01+63.77
AUDUSD=X0.7560-0.0055
EURUSD=X1.1195-0.0089
GBPUSD=X1.3136-0.0051

Dollar_Forecast_to_Strengthen_on_Fiscal_Cliff_Israel_Conflict_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Analysis: Dollar Forecast to Strengthen on Fiscal Cliff, Israel Conflict

Fundamental Forecast for US Dollar: Bullish

The US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) matched its largest single-week advance since July as financial market uncertainty and a 2 percent drop in the US S&P 500 boosted demand for the safe-haven currency.

A disappointing week for risky assets sets the stage for further US Dollar strength—especially as we see uncertainty surrounding the so-called Fiscal Cliff negotiations and renewed arm conflict in Israel and the Gaza Strip weigh on sentiment. Earlier hints that the US Federal Reserve would enact further Quantitative Easing initially sent the Greenback lower. Yet even the prospect of further monetary policy easing was not enough to offset a renewed wave of pessimism as the S&P finished near multi-month lows.

A holiday-shortened trading week ahead offers relatively little in terms of foreseeable economic event risk, but that doesn’t rule out Dollar volatility through the days ahead. We’ll pay particularly close attention to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Tuesday address at the Economic Club in New York—that which will give further clues on the Fed’s next steps for monetary policy.

The recently-released minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s October decision made it fairly clear that officials were likely to enact further easing at next month’s meeting. The expiration of “Operation Twist” comes at a time when FOMC officials likely believe they should be doing more—not less—to boost the sagging labor market and broader economy. Indeed, officials showed little fear over price pressures despite open-ended Quantitative Easing measures and a slightly above-forecast Consumer Price Index inflation number for October.

Yet markets proved ultimately unimpressed at the prospect of further QE, and the combination of worries over the US Fiscal Cliff and escalating violence in Israel and the Gaza strip pushed US stock markets to their lowest levels in months. Now past the highly-anticipated US Presidential elections, politicians once again take center-stage as the threat of sizeable tax increases and spending cuts threatens to pull the US back into recession through early 2013.

The facts remain clear: if nothing is done, the combination of tax increases and spending cuts could cost the United States up to 4 percentage points in GDP growth in the New Year. Given that the damage would essentially be self-inflicted, one would assume that the US Congress and President would seek a resolution as quickly as possible.

Yet the Democratic party controls the presidency and Senate while the Republicans control the house; there must be compromise between parties to get a deal done. Early rhetoric from Republican and Democratic leaders suggests this round could be different than the last. But it may take nothing short of a miracle for a breakthrough to occur before the soft deadline of January, 2013.

Expect to hear the term “Fiscal Cliff” frequently in the next two months as financial markets grapple with this fairly significant risk to the global economy. And though we won’t get clarity on a potential deal for some time, be mindful of volatility when President Obama or House of Representatives Speaker Boehner speak on the status of negotiations.

We could be in for more uncertainty and dour sentiment across the S&P 500 and broader risky asset classes. Clear deterioration in armed conflict between Israel and the Gaza Strip could likewise keep a lid on optimism and further benefit the safe-haven US Dollar. - DR

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

--

Get stories like this on the Yahoo app and discover more every day.
Download it now.
Loading...
  • Most Read on Bloomberg: Good-But-Busted ETFs, Drifting Stocks Bloomberg - 25 minutes ago

    (Bloomberg) -- The most-read Bloomberg News reports from the past week are listed below. The rankings are based on daily statistics through Aug. 27. … More »

  • China July industrial profits rise, buoyed by increased sales, falling costs Reuters - 2 hours 12 minutes ago

    Profits earned by China's industrial firms grew at their fastest pace in four months in July, aided by a pick-up in sales and reduced costs, the statistics bureau said on Saturday. Profits in July rose 11.0 percent to 523.01 billion yuan, the … More »

  • 4 Lessons I Learned After Marrying My Foreigner Wife DollarsAndSense.sg - 2 hours 43 minutes ago

    Discuss your past. Discuss your future. The post 4 Lessons I Learned After Marrying My Foreigner Wife appeared first on DollarsAndSense.sg. … More »

  • US, Russia move closer to new Syria ceasefire after talks
    US, Russia move closer to new Syria ceasefire after talks AFP News - 5 hours ago

    Washington and Moscow made key steps towards agreeing a new ceasefire in Syria, but a final deal has not been reached, US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart said after talks Friday. Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei … More »

  • Business Highlights Associated Press - 5 hours ago

    ___ Yellen suggests rate hike is coming but offers no timetable Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Friday that the case for raising interest rates has strengthened in light of a solid job market and ... … More »

  • California governor signs bill banning coal-export funding Associated Press - 5 hours ago

    California Gov. Jerry Brown signed legislation Friday banning state transportation funding for new coal export terminals. The bill represents a victory for environmentalists as they campaign aggressively ... … More »

  • Stada shareholder AOC pushes through board reshuffle
    Stada shareholder AOC pushes through board reshuffle Reuters - 5 hours ago

    Stada (STAGn.DE) shareholder Active Ownership Capital (AOC) succeeded in convincing stock owners of the German drugmaker to vote off its supervisory board chairman in a voting marathon, but the activist investor fell short of its goal of replacing … More »

  • Dollar rises following Yellen remarks on rate hikes AFP - 6 hours ago

    The dollar rose Friday against the euro, the yen and the British pound following remarks from the US central bank favoring a near-term increase in interest rates. In a much-anticipated address, US Federal ... … More »

  • Global markets drift after Yellen speech
    Global markets drift after Yellen speech AFP News - 7 hours ago

    European and US equities markets were split on Friday after US Fed chief Janet Yellen suggested interest rates could rise in the near-term. In words carefully parsed by market watchers, Yellen said recent months had seen conditions in the US … More »

  • How the Dow Jones industrial average fared on Friday Associated Press - 7 hours ago

    Stocks ended on a weak note Friday after Federal Reserve officials said the case has strengthened for raising interest rates above the super-low levels that have helped fuel a seven-year bull market. Phone ... … More »

  • Stocks end mostly lower after Yellen speech
    Stocks end mostly lower after Yellen speech Associated Press - 7 hours ago

    Stocks ended mostly lower on Friday after Federal Reserve officials said the case has strengthened for raising interest rates above the super-low levels that have helped fuel a seven-year bull market. ... … More »

  • UN ready to help Colombia peace deal
    UN ready to help Colombia peace deal AFP News - 7 hours ago

    The UN Security Council on Friday warmly welcomed the historic peace deal reached between Colombia's government and FARC rebels, and pledged to help ensure the agreement takes hold. The council met behind closed doors two days after the Bogota … More »

  • Kerry, Lavrov hold marathon Syria talks
    Kerry, Lavrov hold marathon Syria talks AFP News - 8 hours ago

    US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held marathon talks in Geneva on Friday for an expected push towards resuming peace talks for war-ravaged Syria. Asked during a break how the meeting was proceeding, Lavrov … More »

  • US stocks mixed after Yellen says picture firming for rate hike AFP - 8 hours ago

    US stocks were mixed on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the case for a rate hike is strengthening, raising expectations of a move by year-end. Trade was fairly quiet as Yellen also ... … More »

  • Markets Right Now: Stocks end mostly lower on Wall Street Associated Press - 8 hours ago

    The latest on developments in global financial markets (all times local): 4:00 p.m. Stocks ended mostly lower on Wall Street, giving up a modest gain from earlier in the day after Fed Chair Janet Yellen ... … More »

  • Morales sees 'conspiracy' in Bolivia minister's murder
    Morales sees 'conspiracy' in Bolivia minister's murder AFP News - 8 hours ago

    Bolivian President Evo Morales said Friday that his government is the victim of a "political conspiracy" after protesting miners allegedly kidnapped and beat to death a minister who tried to negotiate with them. Defense Minister Reymi Ferreira … More »

  • New law makes insurance companies find, pay beneficiaries Associated Press - 8 hours ago

    Insurance companies will be required to locate beneficiaries of unclaimed life insurance policies in Illinois and pay them money they're owed under legislation that Gov. Bruce Rauner signed into law on ... … More »

  • Deals of the day-Mergers and acquisitions Reuters - 8 hours ago

    (Adds Alere, Fiat Chrysler; updates Rackspace) Aug 26 (Reuters) - The following bids, mergers, acquisitions and disposals were reported by 2000 GMT on Friday: ** Cloud services provider Rackspace Hosting ... … More »

  • Oil prices edge up but OPEC giants downplay output limits AFP - 8 hours ago

    Oil prices edged higher Friday but the market remained weak as OPEC's key producers cast doubt on the possibility of cutting output. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh on Friday said his country wanted ... … More »

  • Canada, hoping to boost profile, pledges peacekeepers to UN
    Canada, hoping to boost profile, pledges peacekeepers to UN AFP News - 9 hours ago

    Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government on Friday committed 600 troops and Can$450 million (US$350 million) over three years to United Nations peacekeeping operations around the world. Touted by the Liberal administration as a … More »

  • Grain lower, livestock mixed Associated Press - 9 hours ago

    Grain futures were lower Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade. Wheat for Sept. declined 17.75 cents at $3.8350 a bushel; Sept. corn lost 7.25 cents to 3.1625 a bushel; Sept. oats was fell 3.75 cents at ... … More »

  • Canada PM Trudeau to mount charm offensive in China: officials
    Canada PM Trudeau to mount charm offensive in China: officials AFP News - 9 hours ago

    Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will tour the Great Wall, shoot hoops with retired basketball star Yao Ming and meet with women entrepreneurs when he travels to China next week to bolster trade and diplomatic ties, his office said Friday. … More »

  • Oil steady in volatile session, down 2 percent for the week
    Oil steady in volatile session, down 2 percent for the week Reuters - 9 hours ago

    Oil prices were largely unchanged on Friday in a volatile session, as traders reacted to comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and reports of missile activity in Saudi Arabia. The market was taking its cues from the movement in the dollar, which has … More »

  • Dutch PM Mark Rutte announces third-term candidacy
    Dutch PM Mark Rutte announces third-term candidacy AFP News - 10 hours ago

    Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced Friday his candidacy to head the Dutch government for a third succesive term in office, as the countdown moves towards next year's parliamentary polls. "Rutte also informed his top party leadership about his … More »

  • Yellen's case for rate hike boosts dollar; stocks surrender gains
    Yellen's case for rate hike boosts dollar; stocks surrender gains Reuters - 11 hours ago

    U.S. equities gave up early gains on Friday, hurt by a surging U.S. dollar after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that the case for raising U.S. interest rates has strengthened in recent months. European stocks advanced, however, while oil … More »

 
Recent Quotes
Symbol Price Change % Chg 
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
 
Sign-in to view quotes in your portfolios.

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.129+0.001+0.78%
    N21.SI
    1.855-0.040-2.11%
    MC0.SI
    2.84+0.02+0.71%
    C52.SI
    4.22-0.05-1.17%
    Z74.SI
    0.58-0.01-1.69%
    5TP.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.29+0.08+38.10%
    5VI.SI
    0.36+0.07+22.03%
    BPF.SI
    0.192+0.030+18.52%
    AYD.SI
    0.27+0.04+17.39%
    BLU.SI
    0.40+0.05+14.29%
    BFK.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.205-0.055-21.15%
    BTJ.SI
    0.34-0.06-15.00%
    BCD.SI
    0.39-0.06-13.33%
    AYB.SI
    0.31-0.04-11.43%
    5VP.SI
    0.24-0.02-9.43%
    BAZ.SI

Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3582+0.0051+0.38%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5196-0.0071-0.47%
    EURSGD=X
    1.7809-0.0034-0.19%
    GBPSGD=X
    74.6820+0.437+0.59%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.7047-0.0235-0.41%
    SGDHKD=X
    2.9663+0.0023+0.08%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,748.1885-70.3965-0.72%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.9062-0.0141-0.29%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0263-0.0043-0.42%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,324.00-0.60-0.05%
    GCZ16.CMX
    18.63+0.14+0.76%
    SIU16.CMX
    95.80-0.72-0.74%
    ^XAU
    2.080.00+0.10%
    HGU16.CMX
    47.29-0.04-0.08%
    CLV16.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.24+0.08
    ^FVX
    1.63+0.06
    ^TNX
    2.30+0.03
    ^TYX