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Factor Setting the Tone for Weyerhaeuser's (WY) Q4 Earnings

Weyerhaeuser Company WY is slated to report fourth-quarter 2022 results on Jan 26, after the closing bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings and net sales surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.4 % and 0.3%, respectively. Quarterly adjusted earnings and net sales, however, decreased 30% and 2.9% year over year, respectively.

Weyerhaeuser’s earnings beat the consensus mark in all the last four quarters, the average surprise being 5.8%.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings has decreased to 18 cents from 19 cents per share over the past 30 days. The estimate figure indicates a decrease of 63.3% from the year-ago reported level. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.88 billion, suggesting a 14.6% year-over-year decline.

Weyerhaeuser Company Price and EPS Surprise

 

Weyerhaeuser Company Price and EPS Surprise
Weyerhaeuser Company Price and EPS Surprise

Weyerhaeuser Company price-eps-surprise | Weyerhaeuser Company Quote

Factors to Note

Slow construction activities are expected to have weighed on Weyerhaeuser’s fourth-quarter 2022 performance. In late December 2022, the company updated guidance for the fourth quarter, reflecting the downside in Wood Products, partly offset by the upside in Timberland. Also, the company highlighted that its forestry operations recovered quickly post end of work stoppages.

The company expects adjusted EBITDA for Wood Products to be $75 million lower than that reported in the third quarter of 2022, excluding the effect of changes in average sales realizations for lumber and oriented strand board (OSB). WY had earlier expected Wood Products adjusted EBITDA to be lower than that reported in third-quarter 2022.

WY expects Timberland’s adjusted EBITDA to be $25 million lower sequentially. It previously expected Timberlands adjusted EBITDA to be significantly lower sequentially (approximately $50 million lower).

Meanwhile, WY has retained the guidance for its Real Estate, Energy & Natural Resources businesses. Weyerhaeuser’s earnings and adjusted EBITDA are expected to be lower than those reported in the third quarter of 2022.

Overall, lower lumber and OSB prices are expected to have weighed on Weyerhaeuser’s fourth-quarter 2022 performance despite operational excellence improvements and disciplined capital allocation moves of the company.

Meanwhile, transportation and resin shortages have been a headwind for the Wood business. Higher raw material costs for OSB web stock, resin and veneer are anticipated to have also been concerning.

Other Projections

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Wood Products segment revenues (contributing approximately 78% to revenues) is pegged at $1,536 million, implying a decrease from $1,718 million reported in the year-ago period and $1,767 million in the third quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Timberland segment revenues (contributing approximately 26% to revenues) is pegged at $349 million, implying a decrease from $565 million reported in the year-ago period and $574 million in the third quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources segment revenues is pegged at $52 million, implying a decline from $59 million reported a year ago.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Weyerhaeuser this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Currently, WY has an Earnings ESP of -15.73% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some companies in the Zacks Construction sector, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.

Boise Cascade Company BCC currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.90% and a Zacks Rank #3.

BCC’s earnings topped the consensus mark in all the last four quarters, the average surprise being 30.9%.

United Rentals, Inc. URI has an Earnings ESP of +7.91% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

Earnings of URI beat the consensus mark in all the last four quarters, the average surprise being 9.5%. Earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to grow 35.9% year over year.

Fluor Corporation FLR currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.48% and a Zacks Rank #2.

FLR’s earnings topped the consensus mark in one of the last four quarters but missed on three occasions, the average negative surprise being 38.2%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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Boise Cascade, L.L.C. (BCC) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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