There is no doubt that the big event risk for Monday’s trading is the end of the Italian elections, which will determine the next prime minister. Following two days of voting, ballots will close today at 14:00 GMT, and exit polls will be released immediately after closing.
Former Prime Minister Berlusconi is challenging incumbent premier Mario Monti, and should a right wing bloc win support and form a government behind Berlusconi, then the former PM may repeal Monti’s austerity measures. Therefore, a Berlusconi win may be perceived as Euro negative.
Besides for the Italian elections, there is little news out of the Euro-zone today. French Finance Minister Moscovici and his German counterpart Schaeuble welcomed the results of the Cyprus elections and expect an accord with the Cyprus government by the end of March.
After forming a technically neutral Doji star on Friday, EUR/USD has climbed its way back above 1.3200 in today’s Forex trading. Support may now be provided by the 1-month low set at 1.3144 on Friday. Resistance may be provided by the former 1.3284 resistance line.
The Pound has recovered about half of the losses since the Moody’s downgrade and is currently trading around 1.5150. BBA loans for house purchases were reported at 32,288 in January, worse than the expected 34,000 mortgage approvals and down from 33,440 in December (revised). The release had no significant impact on trading.
In Japan, the Yen weakened further as reports surfaced that PM Abe will nominate outspoken dove Kuroda as the BoJ Governor. Finance Minister Aso said Kuroda is the correct choice, and PM Advisor Hamada said Kuroda understands so-called Abenomics. The official nomination is expected by the end of this month.
EURUSD Daily: February 25, 2013
Chart created by Benjamin Spier using Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Benjamin Spier, DailyFX Research. Feedback can be sent to firstname.lastname@example.org .