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Euro, Pound Eyeing CPI and GDP Data to Shape Jackson Hole Outlook
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Talking Points:
US Dollar Down Overnight, Swiss Franc Higher on Upbeat 2Q GDP Figures
Euro, Pound Eye German CPI and UK GDP Data to Shape Jackson Hole Bets
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The US Dollar corrected lower in overnight trade having rallied against most of the majors in the preceding 24 hours. The Dow Jones FXCM USD Index – a measure of the greenback’s average value against its top counterparts – gained 0.2 percent yesterday to hit a two-week high. The Swiss Franc outperformed after second-quarter GDP figures topped expectations, showing output unexpectedly grew 0.2 percent. Economists were penciling in a 0.1 percent contraction ahead of the release.
Looking ahead, revised UK GDP figures and a preliminary look at Augusts’ German CPI report headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The former is expected to confirm that output grew 0.7 percent in the second quarter. A cautious upward drift in UK economic news-flow relative to consensus forecasts may open the door for an upside surprise however.
Such a result could boost speculation that BOE Governor Mark Carney will strike a hawkish tone at this weekend’s central bankers’ summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This would be consistent with Carney’s dismissive rhetoric about recent turmoil in China earlier this month. Needless to say, such an outcome would bode well for the British Pound.
Meanwhile, Germany’s headline inflation rate is seen edging lower to 0.1 percent, the lowest in six months. This too is likely to be judged through the prism of what it could mean for ECB rhetoric to be unveiled at the Jackson Hole Symposium over the weekend, with Vitor Constancio set to speak.
The ECB Vice President and his Executive Board colleague Peter Praet both hinted the central bank could expand its QE effort if needed in separate speeches this week. A weak CPI print may fuel speculation of just such a development to be telegraphed in commentary over the weekend, weighing on the Euro.
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Asia Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
CNH | Leading Index (JUL) | - | - | 98.71 | |
23:05 | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence (AUG) | 7 | 4 | 4 |
23:30 | JPY | Jobless Rate (JUL) | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
23:30 | JPY | Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUL) | 1.21 | 1.19 | 1.19 |
23:30 | JPY | Overall Household Spending (YoY) (JUL) | -0.2% | 0.5% | -2.0% |
23:30 | JPY | Natl CPI (YoY) (JUL) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
23:30 | JPY | Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL) | 0.0% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
23:30 | JPY | Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL) | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI (YoY) (AUG) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG) | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG) | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade (YoY) (JUL) | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
23:50 | JPY | Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL) | 1.2% | 0.6% | -0.6% |
23:50 | JPY | Large Retailers' Sales (JUL) | 2.1% | 1.2% | -0.3% |
01:30 | CNH | Industrial Profits (YoY) (JUL) | -2.9% | - | -0.3% |
European Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP/ACT | PREV | IMPACT |
05:45 | CHF | GDP (QoQ) (2Q) | 0.2% (A) | -0.2% | Medium |
05:45 | CHF | GDP (YoY) (2Q) | 1.2% (A) | 1.1% | Medium |
08:30 | GBP | GDP (QoQ) (2Q P) | 0.7% | 0.7% | Medium |
08:30 | GBP | GDP (YoY) (2Q P) | 2.6% | 2.6% | Medium |
08:30 | GBP | Private Consumption (QoQ) (2Q P) | 0.7% | 0.9% | Low |
08:30 | GBP | Government Spending (QoQ) (2Q P) | 0.0% | 0.9% | Low |
08:30 | GBP | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (QoQ) (2Q P) | 0.5% | 2.0% | Low |
08:30 | GBP | Exports (QoQ) (2Q P) | 2.0% | 0.4% | Low |
08:30 | GBP | Imports (QoQ) (2Q P) | 0.6% | 2.3% | Low |
08:30 | GBP | Total Business Investment (QoQ) (2Q P) | 1.5% | 2.0% | Low |
08:30 | GBP | Total Business Investment (YoY) (2Q P) | 3.8% | 5.7% | Low |
08:30 | GBP | Index of Services (MoM) (JUN) | 0.4% | 0.3% | Low |
08:30 | GBP | Index of Services (3M/3M) (JUN) | 0.7% | 0.4% | Low |
08:30 | GBP | Lloyds Business Barometer (AUG) | - | 50 | Low |
09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Economic Confidence (AUG) | 103.8 | 104 | Low |
09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Business Climate Indicator (AUG) | 0.34 | 0.39 | Low |
09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Confidence (AUG) | -3.2 | -2.9 | Low |
09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services Confidence (AUG) | 8.8 | 8.9 | Low |
09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Consumer Confidence (AUG F) | - | -6.8 | Low |
12:00 | EUR | German CPI (MoM) (AUG P) | -0.1% | 0.2% | Medium |
12:00 | EUR | German CPI (YoY) (AUG P) | 0.1% | 0.2% | Medium |
12:00 | EUR | German CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (AUG P) | -0.1% | 0.3% | Medium |
12:00 | EUR | German CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (AUG P) | 0.1% | 0.1% | Medium |
Critical Levels
CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
EURUSD | 1.0949 | 1.1110 | 1.1178 | 1.1271 | 1.1339 | 1.1432 | 1.1593 |
GBPUSD | 1.5149 | 1.5288 | 1.5345 | 1.5427 | 1.5484 | 1.5566 | 1.5705 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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