Yahoo Finance 
Euro to Look Past Inflation Data, US Dollar May Fall on Soft ISM Print
DailyFX.com -
Talking Points:
Euro to Look Past CPI Data as Markets Await Launch of ECB QE Program
US Dollar May Decline if Soft ISM Data Undermines Fed Rate Hike Outlook
Canadian Dollar Gains, Aussie Drops Before BOC and RBA Policy Meetings
Eurozone flash CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to remain in negative territory, showing a 0.5 percent drawdown in February following a 0.6 percent decline in the prior month. The outcome is unlikely to trigger a meaningful response the Euro considering its limited implications for near-term ECB policy outlook as the central bank prepares to launch QE this month.
Later in the day, the spotlight turns to February’sISM Manufacturingfigures. The report is expected to show that factory-sector activity growth slowed for a fourth consecutive month. US news-flow has tended to underperform relative to forecasts in recent months, warning of a larger mark-down in the cards. Such a result may trim Fed interest rate hike expectations and weigh on the US Dollar.
The Canadian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move may have reflected pre-positioning ahead of this week’s Bank of Canada monetary policy announcement. Expectations call for officials to hold rates unchanged at 0.75 percent after a surprise 25bps cut at last month’s sit-down. A similarly preemptive logic may have been at play as the Australian Dollar faced selling pressure, with the RBA expected to expand stimulus this week.
New to FX? START HERE!
Asia Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
1:00 | CNY | Mfg PMI (FEB) | 49.9 | 49.7 | 49.8 |
1:00 | CNY | Non-Mfg PMI (FEB) | 53.9 | - | 53.7 |
21:45 | NZD | Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (4Q) | -1.9% | -3.0% | -4.5% |
22:00 | AUD | AiG Perf of Mfg Index (FEB) | 45.4 | - | 49 |
23:00 | AUD | CoreLogic RP Data House Px (MoM) (FEB) | 0.3% | - | 1.3% |
23:30 | AUD | TD Securities Inflation (MoM)(FEB) | 0.0% | - | 0.1% |
23:30 | AUD | TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (FEB) | 1.3% | - | 1.5% |
23:50 | JPY | Capital Spending (YoY) (4Q) | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% |
23:50 | JPY | Capital Spending Ex Software (4Q) | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% |
23:50 | JPY | Company Profits (4Q) | 11.6% | - | 7.6% |
23:50 | JPY | Company Sales (4Q) | 2.4% | - | 2.9% |
0:00 | AUD | HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JAN) | 1.8% | - | -1.9% |
0:30 | AUD | Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (4Q) | -0.2% | 0.5% | -0.4% |
0:30 | AUD | Inventories SA (QoQ) (4Q) | -0.8% | 0.1% | 1.2% |
1:35 | JPY | Markit/JMMA Japan Mfg PMI (FEB F) | 51.6 | - | 51.5 |
1:45 | CNY | HSBC China Mfg PMI (FEB F) | 50.7 | 50.1 | 50.1 |
5:00 | JPY | Vehicle Sales (YoY) (FEB) | - | -18.9% | |
5:30 | AUD | Commodity Index (FEB) | - | 87.3 | |
5:30 | AUD | Commodity Index (YoY) (FEB) | - | -20.4% |
European Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
7:00 | GBP | Nationwide House Price (MoM) (FEB) | 0.3% | 0.3% | Low |
7:00 | GBP | Nationwide House Price NSA (YoY) (FEB) | 6.2% | 6.8% | Low |
8:00 | CHF | SNB Sight Deposits | - | - | Low |
8:30 | CHF | procure.ch PMI Mfg (FEB) | 47.3 | 48.2 | Medium |
8:45 | EUR | Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (FEB) | 47.3 | 48.2 | Low |
8:50 | EUR | Markit France Mfg PMI (FEB F) | 50.1 | 49.9 | Low |
8:55 | EUR | Markit/BME Germany Manfg PMI (FEB F) | 47.7 | 47.7 | Low |
9:00 | EUR | Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (FEB F) | 50.9 | 50.9 | Low |
9:00 | EUR | Italy Unemployment Rate (JAN P) | 12.9% | 12.9% | Low |
9:00 | EUR | Italy Unemployment Rate (4Q) | 12.9% | 12.8% | Low |
9:30 | GBP | Net Consumer Credit (JAN) | 0.9B | 0.6B | Low |
9:30 | GBP | Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JAN) | 1.7B | 1.6B | Low |
9:30 | GBP | Mortgage Approvals (JAN) | 61.0K | 60.3K | Medium |
9:30 | GBP | M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JAN) | - | 0.1% | Low |
9:30 | GBP | M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JAN) | - | -1.1% | Low |
9:30 | GBP | M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JAN) | - | 5.0% | Low |
9:30 | GBP | Markit UK PMI Mfg SA (FEB) | 53.3 | 53 | Medium |
10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate (JAN) | 11.4% | 11.4% | Medium |
10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (FEB) | -0.5% | -0.6% | High |
10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (FEB A) | 0.6% | 0.6% | High |
10:00 | EUR | Italy GDP Annual (YoY) (2014) | -0.4% | -1.9% | Low |
10:00 | EUR | Italy Deficit to GDP (2014) | - | 2.8% | Low |
Critical Levels
CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
EURUSD | 1.1068 | 1.1137 | 1.1166 | 1.1206 | 1.1235 | 1.1275 | 1.1344 |
GBPUSD | 1.5277 | 1.5352 | 1.5395 | 1.5427 | 1.5470 | 1.5502 | 1.5577 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.
