Yahoo Finance 
Euro Awaits News on Greece Deal Progress as EU Leaders Meet
DailyFX.com -
Talking Points:
Aussie Dollar Drops, Yen Outperforms on Risk Aversion in Asian Trade
Kiwi Dollar Seesaws on RBNZ Rhetoric, Upbeat Trade Balance Report
Euro Waiting on Greece-Linked News-Flow from EU Leaders’ Summit
The sentiment-linked Australian Dollar traded lower while the safety-geared Japanese Yen outperformed as risk aversion swept markets in overnight trade. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index fell 0.9 percent, following negative cues from Wall Street. Newswires attributed the dour mood to the absence of a funding deal between Greece and its creditors at an emergency meeting of Eurozone finance ministers.
The New Zealand Dollar saw sharp see-saw volatility. The currency fell after the RBNZ reiterated that the exchange rate remains unjustifiably high in its Statement of Intent. This seemed to fuel fears that policymakers may intervene to beat down the Kiwi once again. The bank also pledged to explore “macro-prudential policy options” for reigning in the real estate market, hinting house price inflation won’t hold back on-coming interest rate cuts. An upbeat set of Trade Balance figures served to trim losses however.
Another quiet day on the European data front is likely to keep Greece-related news-flow in the spotlight. Leaders of EU member states are set to continue a two-day summit in Brussels and traders will keenly monitor rhetoric coming out of the event for signs of a breakthrough or a final collapse of negotiations without further room to maneuver.
Markets fear that failure to overcome the impasse may lead to a Greek default and push the country out of the Eurozone, triggering as-yet unknown consequences for the currency bloc and the world economy at large. Hopes were running high early in the week after Athens submitted an updated set of proposed reforms meant to unlock a tranche of bailout funding. Traction has failed to materialize thus far however.
Signs of progressahead of another emergency Eurogroup meeting over the weekend may lift the Euro amid ebbing uncertainty risk. Sentiment may likewise firm, boosting higher-yielding currencies (notably in the commodity FX complex) while weighing on the Yen. Follow-though might be limited however considering the markets’ priced-in outlook seems to favor an eventual agreement. Continued deadlock may not fuel volatility however, with investors unlikely to give up hope until June’s €1.6 billion IMF repayment comes due and the bailout program expires at month-end.
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Asia Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
22:45 | NZD | Trade Balance (NZ$) (MAY) | 350M | -100M | 183M |
22:45 | NZD | Exports (NZ$) (MAY) | 4.36B | 4.30B | 4.13B |
22:45 | NZD | Imports (NZ$) (MAY) | 4.01B | 4.30B | 3.95B |
22:45 | NZD | Trade Balance YTD (NZ$) (MAY) | -2570M | -2835M | -2656M |
23:30 | JPY | Jobless Rate (MAY) | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
23:30 | JPY | Job-To-Applicant Ratio (MAY) | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.17 |
23:30 | JPY | Overall Household Spending (YoY) (MAY) | 4.8% | 3.6% | -1.3% |
23:30 | JPY | Natl CPI (YoY) (MAY) | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
23:30 | JPY | Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (MAY) | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
23:30 | JPY | Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY) | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI (YoY) (JUN) | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (MAY) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY) | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
European Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
06:00 | EUR | German Import Price Index (MoM) (MAY) | 0.2% | 0.6% | Low |
06:00 | EUR | German Import Price Index (YoY) (MAY) | -0.4% | -0.6% | Low |
08:00 | EUR | Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (MAY) | 5.4% | 5.3% | Low |
08:00 | EUR | Eurozone M3 Money Supply 3M Avg (MAY) | 5.1% | 4.7% | Low |
Critical Levels
CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
EURUSD | 1.1048 | 1.1122 | 1.1163 | 1.1196 | 1.1237 | 1.1270 | 1.1344 |
GBPUSD | 1.5545 | 1.5638 | 1.5692 | 1.5731 | 1.5785 | 1.5824 | 1.5917 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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