Earnings Update: Here's Why Analysts Just Lifted Their Rieter Holding AG (VTX:RIEN) Price Target To CHF140
Shareholders might have noticed that Rieter Holding AG (VTX:RIEN) filed its interim result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.4% to CHF109 in the past week. Revenues came in 2.4% below expectations, at CHF421m. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of CHF16.47 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Rieter Holding
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the six analysts covering Rieter Holding, is for revenues of CHF1.01b in 2024. This implies a measurable 6.5% reduction in Rieter Holding's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 69% to CHF4.30 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CHF1.02b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF4.55 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 11% to CHF140, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Rieter Holding analyst has a price target of CHF180 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CHF96.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 13% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 17% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.7% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Rieter Holding is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Rieter Holding. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Rieter Holding going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for Rieter Holding (1 is a bit concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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