Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Weakness, S&P 500 Hits Monthly Low

THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar technical positioning warns of continued weakness while the S&P 500 has dropped below the 1500 figure to hit the lowest level in a month.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices pulled back from resistance at the top of a rising channel set from early February to test 14.6% Fibonacci retracement support at 10367. This barrier is reinforced by the channel bottom. Negative RSI divergence warns of weakness ahead, with a break downward initially exposing the 23.6% level at 10320. Channel top resistance is now at 10459.

Forex_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Weakness_SP_500_Hits_Monthly_Low_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Weakness, S&P 500 Hits Monthly Low

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S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continued lower after taking out rising trend line support set from early January and completing a Bearish Engulfing candlestick formation. Sellers have now overcome the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement 1497.40, exposing the 38.2% level at 1476.90. A further drop below that targets the 50% Fib at 1460.30. The 1497.40 level has been recast as near-term resistance, with a reversal back above that eyeing the trend line (now at 1528.50) anew.

Forex_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Weakness_SP_500_Hits_Monthly_Low_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Weakness, S&P 500 Hits Monthly Low

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke above resistance at 1588.61, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 38.2% level at 1609.40. A further push above that aims for the 50% Fib at 1626.20. The 1588.61 mark has been recast as near-term support, with a reversal back beneath that eyeing the February 21 low at 1555.00.

Forex_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Weakness_SP_500_Hits_Monthly_Low_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Weakness, S&P 500 Hits Monthly Low

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CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices broke below support at 92.80, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 50.0% level at 91.13. A further break beneath that aims for the 61.8% Fib at 89.45. The 92.80 mark has been recast as near-term resistance, with a turn back above that eyeing the 23.6% retracement at 94.87.

Forex_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Weakness_SP_500_Hits_Monthly_Low_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Weakness, S&P 500 Hits Monthly Low

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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