Unless Congress raises or suspends the debt ceiling beforehand, the ‘X Date’ – the day on which the U.S. Treasury will be unable to meet all of its obligations – is expected to arrive between October 15 and November 4, according to the latest analysis from the Bipartisan Policy Center.
“No one can be certain of the X Date, but we know it’s coming within a matter of weeks,” Shai Akabas, BPC’s director of economic policy, said in a statement. “The U.S. government risks missing or delaying critical bills that will come due in mid- and late-October that millions of Americans rely on, from military paychecks and retirement benefits to advanced child tax credit payments.”
After the X Date, the Treasury would be unable to pay about 40% of its bills, BPC said, based on an analysis of daily cash flows. “Crossing the X Date would be unprecedented,” Akabas said. “At that point, Treasury would be left with an array of highly unattractive and risk-filled options.”
The BPC estimate aligns with the projections provided by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who warned earlier this month that the Treasury would run out of sufficient funds at some point in October if Congress fails to act.