By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin and most major cryptocurrencies are weaker after Chicago Mercantile Exchange, a proxy for institutional activity, denied reports of listing futures tied to XRP and SOL. Traditional markets are also holding their breath for the expected Bank of Japan interest-rate increase on Friday.
Despite BTC's continued range play above $100,000, retail demand remains robust. Glassnode's shrimp-Crab cohort, which includes addresses holding up to 10 BTC, have absorbed 1.9 times the newly mined supply last month, totaling over 25,600 BTC. Meanwhile, long-term holders have slowed their spending and profit-taking activities, indicating a cautious, but firm, commitment to their investments.
Still, dropping below $100,000 might prove costly. According to Wintermute's OTC trader Jake Ostrovskis, that would "frame Monday's inauguration as a sell-the-news event and the narrative could switch pretty quickly."
Reports suggest the number of whale wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP has surged to an all-time high of 2,083, signaling increased accumulation and confidence in its future performance.
In the world of innovation, chatter around Bitcoin Synths is gaining traction on X. These synthetic assets allow users to benefit from bitcoin’s price movements without actually owning the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Synths can be traded or used as collateral in lending protocols, avoiding the complexities associated with wrapped tokens and specialized bridges.
Ethereum layer-2 protocols are also making headlines with record transaction volumes, even as concerns about their capacity nearing limits persist.
On the macroeconomic front, recent data from the Labor Department shows that the "all tenant rent" index, an indicator of shelter inflation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose at a slower pace last quarter. The data suggest that recent worries about inflation may be overdone and the Fed could pivot away from its hawkish forecast, which would be a positive sign for risk assets. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto
Jan. 23: First deadline for SEC decision on NYSE Arca's proposal to list and trade shares of Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL), a closed-end trust, as an ETF.
Morpho DAO is discussing reducing incentives by 30% across all networks and assets.
Yearn DAO is discussing funding and endorsing a subDAO called Bearn to focus on building and launching products on Berachain.
Frax DAO is discussing a $5 million investment in World Liberty Financial (WLFI), the crypto project backed by the family of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Jan. 23: Livepeer (LPT) is hosting a Core Dev call.
Jan. 24: Arbitrum BoLD's activation vote deadline. BoLD allows anyone to participate in validation and defend against malicious claims to an Arbitrum chain's state.
Jan. 24: Hedera (HBAR) is hosting a community call at 11 a.m.
Unlocks
Jan. 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 2.32% of circulating supply worth $52.9 million.
Jan. 31: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 41.5% of circulating supply worth $626 million.
Token Launches
Jan. 23: Sky (SKY) is being listed on Bitget.
Jan. 23: Animecoin (ANIME) is launching, with claims starting at 8 a.m. The token will be listed on multiple exchanges including Binance, OKX and KuCoin.
Azuki, a non-fungible token (NFT) collection, is introducing its Animecoin (ANIME) today on Ethereum and Arbitrum. The token was announced on Jan. 13.
An airdrop will encompass Azuki NFT holders, Hyperliquid HYPE stakes, some Arbitrum ecosystem participants and Kaito yappers.
It will also include certain anime communities and BNB token holders who, between Jan. 17 and Jan. 20, subscribed to Simple Earn with their tokens on Binance.
The debut builds on a growing trend of NFT collections launching their own tokens, a trend that started in 2021 when Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) launched ApeCoin.
Other examples include DeGods' DUST and Pudgy Penguins' PENGU tokens, which have a $1.6 billion market capitalization.
Other signs indicate the NFT market is heating up, with Nansen recently pointing out that a Crypto Punk was sold for 170 ETH (around $540,000) while an Azuki was sold for 165 ETH. The Azuki NFT had been bought a month before for 105 ETH.
Derivatives Positioning
The cumulative volume delta indicator reveals that major cryptocurrencies, with the exception of TON, have experienced net selling pressure in the perpetual futures markets over the past 24 hours.
Block flows on Deribit and Paradigm featured long positions in short-dated BTC puts at $100K, $95K and $70K. An entity bought ETH put at $2.9K.
Front-end BTC and ETH calls now traded at par with puts.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 4.1 % from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday to $102,020 (24hrs: -2.71%)
ETH is down 3.85% at $3,206.18 (24hrs: -2.83%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 3.61% to 3,799.21 (24hrs: -3.58%)
CESR Composite Ether Staking Rate is down 15 bps to 3.15%
BTC funding rate is at -0.0019% (-2.08% annualized) on OKX
DXY is unchanged at 108.25
Gold is down 0.35% at $2,761.10/oz
Silver is down 0.73% to $30.57/oz
Nikkei 225 closed up 0.79% at 39,958.87
Hang Seng closed down 0.4% at 19,700.56
FTSE is unchanged at 8,538.7
Euro Stoxx 50 is unchangedat 5203.6
DJIA closed +0.3% to 44,156.73
S&P 500 closed +0.61% at 6,086.37
Nasdaq closed +1.28% at 20,009.34
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.12% at 25,311.5
S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.21% at 2,297.32
U.S. 10-year Treasury is up 3 bps at 4.59%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.19% to 6,109.00
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.56% to 21,876.75
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchaged at 44,384.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 58.59
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.031
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 781 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $58.9
Total Fees: 8.5 BTC/ $876,410
CME Futures Open Interest: 188,396 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 37.1 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 10.56%
Technical Analysis
BTC's retreat from Monday's high is teasing a formation of a double top bearish reversal pattern.
A move below the horizontal line would confirm the pattern, potentially bringing more chart-led sellers to the market.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $377.31 (-3.03%), down 1.89% at $370.19 in pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $295.85 (+0.56%), down 2.59% at $288.18 in pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$32.81 (+4.99%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.69 (+0.66%), down 2.54% at $19.19 in pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.14 (+3.14%), down 1.75% at $12.91 in pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.97 (+4.58%%), down 1.63% at $15.71 in pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.14 (+1.64%), down 2.51% at $10.86 in pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $25.53 (+2.24%), up 2.58% at $28.27 in pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $62.11 (-4.36%), up 2% at $64.90 in pre-market.
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $41.00 (+2.5%), down 2.07% at $40.15 in pre-market.
Bitwise Registers Delaware Entity for Potential Dogecoin ETF (Decrypt): Bitwise Asset Management has registered a statutory trust in Delaware named “Bitwise Dogecoin ETF,” a preparatory step toward potentially filing a Form S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
China Ramps Up Support for Its Stock Markets (The Wall Street Journal): Chinese regulators said state-owned insurers and mutual funds would invest at least 100 billion yuan ($13.7 billion) into the A-shares market. The central bank also pledged to support the stock market.
Davos Hits ‘Peak Pessimism’ on Europe as U.S. Exuberance Rises (Financial Times): U.S. executives at Davos expressed optimism over Donald Trump’s “America First” policies, while their European counterparts voiced pessimism about the potential harm to struggling EU economies from tariffs and regulatory changes.
