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Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA) Hit a 52 Week High, Can the Run Continue?

Zacks Equity Research
·4-min read

Have you been paying attention to shares of Copa Holdings (CPA)? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 19.4% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $107.19 in the previous session. Copa Holdings has gained 27.1% since the start of the year compared to the 3.6% move for the Zacks Transportation sector and the 6.1% return for the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has an impressive record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on May 10, 2023, Copa Holdings reported EPS of $3.99 versus consensus estimate of $3.34 while it beat the consensus revenue estimate by 3.36%.

For the current fiscal year, Copa Holdings is expected to post earnings of $12.26 per share on $3.37 billion in revenues. This represents a 48.43% change in EPS on a 13.55% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $12.66 per share on $3.48 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 3.22% and 3.24%, respectively.

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Valuation Metrics

Copa Holdings may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as these give investors a variety of ways to comb through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. Investors should consider the style scores a valuable tool that can help you to pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

Copa Holdings has a Value Score of B. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are A and C, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of A.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 8.6X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is not in-line with the peer industry average of 9.9X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 6.9X versus its peer group's average of 8.2X. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to consider the stock's Zacks Rank, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Copa Holdings currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Copa Holdings fits the bill. Thus, it seems as though Copa Holdings shares could have potential in the weeks and months to come.

How Does CPA Stack Up to the Competition?

Shares of CPA have been soaring, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? One industry peer that looks good is United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL). UAL has a Zacks Rank of # 1 (Strong Buy) and a Value Score of A, a Growth Score of A, and a Momentum Score of D.

Earnings were strong last quarter. United Airlines Holdings Inc beat our consensus estimate by 13.70%, and for the current fiscal year, UAL is expected to post earnings of $9.07 per share on revenue of $53.03 billion.

Shares of United Airlines Holdings Inc have gained 7.4% over the past month, and currently trade at a forward P/E of 4.97X and a P/CF of 4.28X.

The Transportation - Airline industry is in the top 15% of all the industries we have in our universe, so it looks like there are some nice tailwinds for CPA and UAL, even beyond their own solid fundamental situation.

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Zacks Investment Research