China's scientific sea voyages might rile India, but will they lead to clash?
Three Chinese research vessels have been operating in the Indian Ocean this week, according to open-source data, in the latest sign Beijing aims to expand its scientific excursions at sea.
While Beijing has insisted the voyages are for scientific research purposes, observers warned that regional powers such as India could become increasingly concerned about the blurred boundaries between China's military and civilian technology, though they say open confrontation is unlikely.
According to the latest data by tracking website MarineTraffic, research ship Zhongshan Daxue approached the eastern edge of the Indian Ocean near the Indonesian island of Sumatra on Wednesday, while the Xiang Yang Hong 03 sailed near the Bay of Bengal.
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The Yuan Wang 7, a member of China's space support fleet, was seen heading towards Africa's eastern coast on Wednesday. The ship is outfitted with advanced sensors and communication equipment.
Notably, it was the first time that the Zhongshan Daxue, the country's largest and most advanced oceanographic research vessel, was spotted patrolling in the region. With a displacement of 6,800 tonnes, the ship was commissioned in 2021 and made its maiden voyage in the South China Sea last year.
China has built one of the world's largest fleets of civilian research vessels, with 64 now in use, according to a recent report by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.
China has vastly increased its presence in the Indian Ocean in recent decades, largely through economic activities and scientific research, which India has seen as a threat.
While India has not publicly commented on the latest expeditions, it has repeatedly accused Chinese research ships of "spying" on its military, adding tensions to ties between the neighbours, which have been locked in an intense stand-off along their Himalayan border since 2020.
Zhang Jiadong, director of the Centre for South Asian Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said China's scientific research in the Indian Ocean was under intense scrutiny because of the potential "dual-use" of the data it collected, but added that this ambiguity over how data would be used was not limited to China.
"China's scientific expedition is following international law, and there is no guarantee by any nation that their research will not be used for military purposes," he said. "Marine science around the world has always been controversial."
"If anyone wants to criticise China about its [scientific] research being used for military purposes, there is no way for China to object to that possibility; however, it is the case with all countries' oceanographic expeditions," he added.
Zhang noted that behind the "controversy" surrounding China's research activities was the growing competition "between global maritime powers and littoral countries, and it will not be limited to China and India, or China and the US".
The Yuan Wang 7, a member of China's space support fleet, has been spotted northeast of Madagascar in the western Indian Ocean this week. Photo: Sina alt=The Yuan Wang 7, a member of China's space support fleet, has been spotted northeast of Madagascar in the western Indian Ocean this week. Photo: Sina>
Observers said the link between the survey activities and the Chinese military - including ties with the People's Liberation Army - would also deepen suspicions about Beijing expanding its power in the Indian Ocean.
Most of China's marine research organisations, including the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the State Oceanic Administration, have cooperated with the PLA.
The Xiang Yang Hong class of ships, for instance, was originally built for China's military but was later transferred to its civilian fleet.
Amit Ranjan, a research fellow with the National University of Singapore's Institute of South Asian Studies, said India was unlikely to openly confront China over the latter's research activities at sea as long they did not threaten what New Delhi saw as its sphere of influence.
"Once [the survey vessel] crosses into the Indian radar - that is, in the Bay of Bengal - that will concern India. If it's not, India may not be very vocal," he said.
He added that Delhi would probably also be unnerved if Chinese research vessels were to travel close to or dock in Sri Lanka or the Maldives - two strategically important island nations that India considers to be within its sphere of influence.
In February, Sri Lanka refused to allow the Xiang Yang Hong 03 to dock at its port, reportedly under pressure from India.
Later that month, the Chinese vessel stopped in the Maldives with the permission of the country's Beijing-friendly government, which in June stopped allowing India to conduct hydrographic surveys in its waters.
Amid an intensifying power rivalry between China and the US in the Indo-Pacific, China's expanding presence in the Indian Ocean has drawn scrutiny from Washington and its allies in the region.
Following a foreign ministers' meeting in Tokyo last month, the members of the Quad security dialogue - the US, Japan, Australia and India - agreed to expand a maritime domain awareness initiative to the Indian Ocean to bolster security and counter illegal activities, a move made with China in mind.
"Given the growing strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific region in the eyes of the US and other major Quad members, they have risen against China," Ranjan said.
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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