Advertisement
Singapore markets closed
  • Straits Times Index

    3,224.01
    -27.70 (-0.85%)
     
  • Nikkei

    40,369.44
    +201.37 (+0.50%)
     
  • Hang Seng

    16,541.42
    +148.58 (+0.91%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    7,952.62
    +20.64 (+0.26%)
     
  • Bitcoin USD

    70,598.82
    -313.91 (-0.44%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    885.54
    0.00 (0.00%)
     
  • S&P 500

    5,254.35
    +5.86 (+0.11%)
     
  • Dow

    39,807.40
    +47.29 (+0.12%)
     
  • Nasdaq

    16,379.46
    -20.06 (-0.12%)
     
  • Gold

    2,254.80
    +16.40 (+0.73%)
     
  • Crude Oil

    83.11
    -0.06 (-0.07%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    4.2060
    +0.0100 (+0.24%)
     
  • FTSE Bursa Malaysia

    1,536.07
    +5.47 (+0.36%)
     
  • Jakarta Composite Index

    7,288.81
    -21.28 (-0.29%)
     
  • PSE Index

    6,903.53
    +5.36 (+0.08%)
     

How a Buy-Sell-Hold Strategy Works in a Bear Market

The phrase "putting your money to work" is a staple of financial services marketing. But right now, would your money do more for you if it took a nap?

Moving a large swath of your portfolio to cash is a defensive move that protects new and near-retirees from losses, argues one advisor and author. Accepting minimal returns in a money market account is better, he says, than watching hard-earned equity erode if the market's correction worsens.

Other advisors disagree, pointing to the long time horizon for investors in their 50s, 60s and 70s who need to stay in the market to capture returns that outrun inflation for their later retirements. Here's how the two sides square off.

Ken Moraif, author of "Buy, Hold, Sell" and an advisor with Money Matters in Plano, Texas, wants his clients to convert equities to cash, usually in the form of staid money market accounts and similar vehicles.

ADVERTISEMENT

His rationale: a stop-loss strategy for those approaching or in retirement. It's better to step out of a market that could undermine years of saving than to cross your fingers and hope your equities will somehow hold their value and will be there when you need income, he says.

"Nobody can time the market. I'm not advocating that," Moraif says. His larger point, though, is that those near or in retirement can't afford to wait at least seven years for the market to recover, if it drops as much as it did in the crashes of 2001 and 2008. That's especially critical for those on the brink of retirement, he says. "This is the most important 10-year period in your entire financial life," he says, because drawing down a shrunken portfolio early in retirement leaves nothing to reinvest when the market recovers.

"It's crucial to be thinking defensively, not offensively," Moraif says. "What you have to worry about is not losing money. Giving up returns is the least of your worries. You don't always have to be aggressive."

Still, individual investors have an aversion to letting their funds coast in a money market, short-term annuity or other highly secure account that yields perhaps 1 or 2 percent, if anything.

Moraif argues that parking funds in these minimally productive accounts is just a different take on preserving equity. "I'd prefer to make 4 percent, but having zero percent is better than losing money," he says.

And, he adds, choosing cash equivalent accounts that have short terms, no fees or both means investors can respond quickly when market opportunities arise.

It's a controversial strategy. Other advisors instead recommend that the newly and nearly retired continue to have about half of their portfolios in equities, as their expected lifespan of at least 20 more years offers enough time for stocks to recover and to regain growth.

John Gajkowski, co-founder of Money Managers Financial Group in Oakbrook, Illinois, says asset allocations should be based on age, time horizon and financial goals, not on the market of the moment. "No matter what your age, you need some money in equities to be positioned for growth for the long term," he says. He recommends that clients about to retire or in retirement channel 55 percent to 60 percent of their assets into "safe, secure investments" such as high-quality bonds, and the remainder to equities, with a small slice in cash.

That assumes the equities and bonds are high-quality and not speculative. "If you've got half of your portfolio in 'safe and secure,' when the market goes down 10 percent, your whole portfolio isn't down 10 percent," Gajkowski says.

Such a strategy contains the effect of market gyrations, Gajkowski says. "Yes, you could go 100 percent cash, but then when would you get back in?" he asks.

Jon Yankee, CEO of FJY Financial in Reston, Virginia, says today's 60-year-olds have a 30-year time horizon. An 80-year-old might be better served with a higher allocation of cash, but new retirees likely have time to recover from a drop in the market.

The real danger that the current, anticipated market correction poses to individual investors is the urge to make decisions based on personal forecasting, or to make decisions based on what would have worked, retroactively, in the last downturn, he says.

As you progress to and through retirement, you need more cash, but that's a factor of life stage, time horizon and risk tolerance, Yankee says, not a reaction to momentary market madness. "You need to only sell when the thing you're holding is a bigger part of your allocation than it should be," he says. "None of us can predict the future, and those who say they can just got lucky."



More From US News & World Report