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British Pound May Fall as PMI Data Undercuts BOE Rate Hike Bets
DailyFX.com -
Talking Points:
British Pound May Fall as June PMIs Undercut BOE Tightening Speculation
Australian Dollar Drops as Soft Retail Sales Data Inspires RBA Rate Cut Bets
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The final set of June’s UK PMI data figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The composite index is expected to show the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth rebounding after sliding to a five-month low in May. UK news-flow has tended to underperform relative to consensus forecasts recently, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may push back BOE rate hike expectations, weighing on the British Pound.
The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.9 percent on average against its top counterparts. The decline followed a disappointing Retail Sales report. Receipts grew 0.3 percent in May, falling short of forecasts calling for a 0.5 percent increase. April’s reading was also revised downward to reveal a 0.1 percent contraction. The Aussie’s drop tracked a slide in front-end bond yields, suggesting soft news-flow inspired RBA rate cut speculation.
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Asia Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
23:30 | AUD | AiG Perf of Services Index (JUN) | 51.2 | - | 49.6 |
01:30 | AUD | Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) | 0.3% | 0.5% | -0.1% |
01:35 | JPY | Nikkei Japan PMI Services (JUN) | 51.8 | - | 51.5 |
01:35 | JPY | Nikkei Japan PMI Composite (JUN) | 51.5 | - | 51.6 |
01:45 | CNY | HSBC China Composite PMI (JUN) | 50.6 | - | 51.2 |
01:45 | CNY | HSBC China Services PMI (JUN) | 51.8 | - | 53.5 |
European Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
07:45 | EUR | Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI (JUN) | 52.3 | 52.5 | Low |
07:45 | EUR | Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI (JUN) | 53.3 | 53.7 | Low |
07:50 | EUR | Markit France Services PMI (JUN F) | 54.1 | 54.1 | Low |
07:50 | EUR | Markit France Composite PMI (JUN F) | 53.4 | 53.4 | Low |
07:55 | EUR | Markit Germany Services PMI (JUN F) | 54.2 | 54.2 | Medium |
07:55 | EUR | Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (JUN F) | 54.0 | 54.0 | Medium |
08:00 | EUR | Markit Eurozone Services PMI (JUN F) | 54.4 | 54.4 | Medium |
08:00 | EUR | Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (JUN F) | 54.1 | 54.1 | Medium |
08:30 | GBP | Official Reserves Changes (JUN) | - | -$324M | Low |
08:30 | GBP | Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (JUN) | 57.5 | 56.5 | High |
08:30 | GBP | Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (JUN) | 56.7 | 55.8 | High |
09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) | 0.1% | 0.7% | Medium |
09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAY) | 2.3% | 2.2% | Medium |
Critical Levels
CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
EURUSD | 1.0901 | 1.099 | 1.1037 | 1.1079 | 1.1126 | 1.1168 | 1.1257 |
GBPUSD | 1.5455 | 1.553 | 1.5569 | 1.5605 | 1.5644 | 1.5680 | 1.5755 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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