Bristol-Myers (BMY) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 2, before market open.
The company’s shares have gained 14.3% in the past year against the industry's decline of 3.6%.
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Bristol-Myers beat earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 4.66%. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings by 8.74%.
Factors at Play
Bristol-Myers posted 5% growth in Total In-line Product Revenues in the last reported quarter. Demand is likely to have improved in the fourth quarter. The blood thinner drug, Eliquis, was one of the top revenue generators in the last reported quarter and posted revenue growth of 10% year over year. The solid performance of the drug is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter, but pricing pressure is expected to have impacted sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug is pegged at $2.8 billion, while our estimate is $3 billion.
Sales of key the immuno-oncology drug Opdivo grew 7% in the prior quarter and similar or higher levels of growth are expected for the to-be-reported quarter on consistent label expansions. In particular, higher demand across multiple indications, including Opdivo plus Yervoy-based combinations for non-small cell lung cancer, Opdivo plus Cabometyx for kidney cancer and Opdivo-based therapies for various gastric, bladder and esophageal cancers, has likely fueled sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug and our estimate both stand at $2.2 billion.
Pomalyst posted a decent performance in the third quarter, with sales growth of 4%, primarily driven by the demand for triplet-based regimens in earlier lines, extending the duration of treatment for patient and the trend is likely to have prevailed in the fourth quarter.
Arthritis drug Orencia posted a 1% rise in the previous quarter and the fourth quarter is likely to have witnessed similar levels of growth.
Melanoma drug Yervoy generated 2% growth in the previous quarter. The fourth quarter is likely to have experienced increased contributions from label expansions. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug and our estimate stand at $585 million and $599 million, respectively.
Among the new products, Reblozyl posted 19% growth in the last reported quarter and demand is likely to have been higher in the fourth quarter. Abecma and Breyanzi are likely to have seen increased uptake and sequential growth.
However, Revlimid’s revenues declined 28% in the third quarter on generic erosion across several countries and foreign exchange. The decline is likely to have accelerated in the fourth quarter.
Abraxane revenues also declined 33% on lower demand due to the entry of authorized generics. Revenues from this drug have most likely decreased in the fourth quarter too.
Opdualag has also been approved in Europe and the drug has most likely registered a sequential increase in the fourth quarter.
Operating expenses are likely to have increased in the fourth quarter due to costs associated with the broader portfolio.
Key Recent Developments
The FDA recently approved its experimental candidate deucravacitinib to treat adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis who are candidates for systemic therapy or phototherapy, under the brand name Sotyktu. The company has most likely generated some revenues in the fourth quarter from this drug.
The board of directors has declared a quarterly dividend of 57 cents per share, representing a 5.6% increase over last year’s quarterly dividend rate of 54 cents per share. The dividend is payable on Feb 1, 2023, to stockholders of record at the close of business on Jan 6, 2023.
What Our Model Predicts
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Bristol-Myers this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for BMY is -2.62% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pinned at $1.72 per share and the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $1.68 per share.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Bristol Myers Squibb Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Bristol Myers Squibb Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Bristol Myers Squibb Company Quote
Stocks to Consider
Here are some stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
Sanofi SNY has an Earnings ESP of +2.22% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Sanofi beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered an earnings surprise of 9.50%, on average.
Novartis NVS has an Earnings ESP of +1.03% and a Zacks Rank #3.
NVS beat earnings estimate in three of the last four quarters, the average earnings surprise being 0.64%.
Pfizer PFE has an Earnings ESP of +0.48% and a Zacks Rank #3.
PFE beat earnings estimate in three of the last four quarters, the average earnings surprise being 15.86%.
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