Atlas Air (AAWW) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run?

Shares of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings (AAWW) have been strong performers lately, with the stock up 19.6% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $77 in the previous session. Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings has gained 40.5% since the start of the year compared to the 9.4% move for the Zacks Transportation sector and the 12.2% return for the Zacks Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has an impressive record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on August 5, 2021, Atlas Air reported EPS of $4.1 versus consensus estimate of $3.15 while it beat the consensus revenue estimate by 4.6%.

For the current fiscal year, Atlas Air is expected to post earnings of $15.06 per share on $3.86 billion in revenues. This represents a 10.17% change in EPS on a 20.34% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $11 per share on $3.72 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of -26.98% and -3.61%, respectively.

Valuation Metrics

Atlas Air may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as they provide investors with an additional way to sort through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

Atlas Air has a Value Score of A. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are C and A, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of A.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 5.1X current fiscal year EPS estimates. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 3X versus its peer group's average of 7.3X. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to look at the Zacks Rank for the stock, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Atlas Air currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Atlas Air meets the list of requirements. Thus, it seems as though Atlas Air shares could have potential in the weeks and months to come.

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