'Asian Nato' calls, Taiwan moves: should Beijing worry as Japan's Ishiba gets going?

Beijing must watch out for the strategies of new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba as he seeks to recast Japan's military partnership with the US, and also for whether he reaches out to Taiwan, according to observers.

Past weeks have seen headline-grabbing security proposals from Ishiba, who took office on Tuesday after being elected leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

These have included a call to form "an Asian version of Nato" - aimed at deterring Beijing and preventing regional conflict, such as over Taiwan. "Today's Ukraine could be tomorrow's East Asia," Ishiba warned on Friday in his first policy speech.

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The former defence chief has also suggested stationing Japanese troops on the US base in Guam, through revising the bilateral Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) and what he says is an "asymmetrical" Japan-US Security Treaty, and urged a rethink of the US nuclear posture in the region to ensure deterrence.

In an opinion piece for Washington think tank the Hudson Institute ahead of the LDP vote late last month, Ishiba said his proposed Nato-like alliance must also "consider America's sharing of nuclear weapons or the introduction of nuclear weapons into the region".

While bold, the strategies have so far met with a lukewarm reaction on both sides of the Pacific. Daniel Kritenbrink, the US assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific, said it was "too early to talk" about an Asian Nato, while Ishiba's newly appointed foreign minister said mutual defence obligations in Asia was "only an idea for the future".

According to Yoichiro Sato, a professor of Asia-Pacific studies at Japan's Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University, Ishiba's proposals did not offer a "comprehensive strategic direction nor a coherent policy package".

The deployment of Japanese armed forces to Guam would merely represent a symbolic show of mutuality without exploring implications on the extent of collective defence, he said.

"The only direction these proposals collectively point to is Japan's willingness to proactively shape a regional strategic environment other than that of a bipolar confrontation between the US and China, while continuing to centre its security strategy around the bilateral alliance with the US," Sato added.

Kei Koga, an associate professor of public policy and global affairs at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, said the stationing of Japanese troops in Guam, while aimed at making the relationship with the US more equal, might not materialise as the US did not have any incentives to do so.

"The existing SOFA grants certain extraterritorial privileges to US soldiers. Ishiba wants to address this issue," he noted.

The concept of an Asian Nato has been met with scepticism in the region as well, with the Indian foreign minister dismissing the idea, and it is also viewed as likely to upend attempts to reset Japan-China ties.

Shizuka Takada, a research associate of the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, said: "Pushing the Asia Nato idea would not help Tokyo achieve its goal of restoring a more productive relationship with Beijing."

Koga said Ishiba's security proposals would only be feasible with concrete policies, without which they would only sow confusion in the region and also among Japan's allies and partners.

"If the Ishiba administration still intends to push them forward, Japan may no longer be seen as a reliable partner by its ally and partners and could be regarded as a precarious state or even enemy by those with whom it already has tensions, such as China," he said.

As for US nuclear weapons sharing, Takada noted that Ishiba's predecessor, Fumio Kishida, had said nuclear-sharing was not an option and Japan should stick to its three non-nuclear principles.

Japan, the only country to have faced an atomic attack, adheres to the principles of never possessing, producing, or permitting atomic weapons on its territory.

Zhang Yun, an associate professor of international relations at Japan's Niigata University, drew attention to Ishiba's goal to position Japan as an additional "hub" in the regional security architecture after the US.

"This shift towards a dual-hub security dynamic represents a significant structural change that deserves Beijing's close attention," he said.

"Tokyo's fundamental objective is to achieve more strategic autonomy from Washington without ruining the [military] alliance. However, it is likely to use the threats imposed by Beijing as an excuse."

Ishiba's stance on Taiwan might be another issue causing friction with Beijing. Visiting Taipei in August, Ishiba told Taiwanese leader Lai Ching-te that the democratic community constituted a deterrent power that was crucial for regional peace, though he did not specifically mention Beijing.

But asked what Japan's response would be if Taiwan were attacked, Ishiba refrained from the explicit support shown by his predecessors like Shinzo Abe and Taro Aso, saying only that the focus should be on "how to prevent such an attack".

Zhang said Beijing should watch out for Ishiba's moves relating to Taiwan.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Japan and the US, like most countries, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons for defence.

Sato from Ritsumeikan said that Ishiba was likely to continue Kishida's "dual approach" towards China - that is, seeking to repair ties through economic engagement and enhanced security cooperation to balance against it.

Ishiba has also displayed interest in improving ties with Beijing. In his inaugural policy speech on Friday, he sought to foster a "strategic, mutually beneficial relationship" with China, emphasising the need to enhance dialogue at all levels to establish "stable and constructive" relations.

According to Zhang, Ishiba's political record reveals a pragmatic and cautious approach to sensitive historical matters, and his conservative, yet non-radical stance could create the groundwork for dialogue with China.

He said a promising development for bilateral ties under Ishiba has been the appointment of Hiroshi Moriyama as the new LDP secretary general.

Moriyama, who ranks second in the party hierarchy, is known for his commitment to fostering China-Japan friendship and has visited China twice this year.

"Within the senior ranks of the LDP, there are robust channels for dialogue with China, marking a positive indicator for the future of the bilateral relationship," Zhang said.

Appearing in a TV programme on September 29, Ishiba also emphasised the significance of dialogue and communication between the two leaderships, indicating a moderate and pragmatic approach to engaging Beijing.

Ishiba would seek to stabilise ties with China, Zhang said, as it was the only country that Japan could improve relations within the region, beyond its rapprochement with South Korea.

"If ties with China further simmer, Japan will be put in a very passive situation in terms of neighbourhood diplomacy," Zhang said. "Relations with Russia have irreversibly deteriorated while the issue of North Korean abductions of Japanese nationals remains unresolved in the short term."

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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