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Analysts Are Updating Their Aperam S.A. (AMS:APAM) Estimates After Its First-Quarter Results

Aperam S.A. (AMS:APAM) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.1% to €26.32 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues came in 4.7% below expectations, at €1.7b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of €2.79 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Aperam

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earnings-and-revenue-growth

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Aperam's eight analysts is for revenues of €6.90b in 2024. This would reflect a solid 8.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 52% to €1.10. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €6.94b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.68 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

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The consensus price target held steady at €29.99, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aperam at €42.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €24.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Aperam's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Aperam's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 1.6% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Aperam is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Aperam going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Aperam has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.