4 Ways a Harris 2024 Win Could Impact the Price of Travel
The average cost of a vacation in the United States per person is around $1,986 per week, but that could change after the election in November. On July 21, after more and more pressure to withdraw, President Biden announced his plans to drop out of the election. He has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place. Now, voters are wondering how many of Biden’s proposed plans Harris will carry on as her own.
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If President Biden had won reelection, that could have majorly shifted the costs of things like gas, airfare and hospitality. Here are experts’ takes on how a Biden win — and instead, a possible Harris presidency — could have changed the price of travel.
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Rising Fuel Costs
Over the past four years, the cost of gas in the United States has risen from $2.17 a gallon on average to $3.51 a gallon. There was also a time in the summer of 2022 when gas prices reached an all-time high at more than $5 a gallon.
Rod Skyles, author of the blog The Unconventional Economist, said that it’s highly likely oil and gas prices would have continued to rise if Biden won reelection. “The U.S. would be expected to continue to reduce oil and gas production, raising the price of gasoline at the pump as well as things like diesel and jet fuel costs, with corresponding cost increases for car, train and air travel.”
Chuck Warren, a political economist and host of the Breaking Battlegrounds Political Podcast, agreed. Warren said Biden’s green efforts come at a cost. “President Biden’s administration has been leading efforts aimed at combating climate change that sometimes comes with strict regulations regarding the emission of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels. The result is that it becomes more expensive to extract oil and gas hence may attract higher fuel costs.”
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Lower Airline Costs
“The travel industry is one that has felt the brunt of inflation, and it is difficult to envision a quick fix,” said Dr. Jim Ronan, a lecturer in the department of political science at Villanova University. “However, under a second Biden term, we would have expected more guidelines concerning the airline industry in particular, as that has been a key focus over the last three plus years.”
Ronan was referring to the legislation Biden signed off on in May. Among other regulations, the $105 billion measure prohibited airlines from charging fees for families to sit together. This can potentially lower a family’s airfare cost by hundreds.
“As air travel has become more nightmarish in recent years, the department has also focused on holding airlines accountable for the customer service troubles that have plagued them post-COVID,” said Brenton Harrison, a financial advisor and founder of New Money, New Problems. “Passengers are now entitled to a refund for an extensive list of interruptions, such as flights delayed more than three hours and significantly delayed return of baggage.”
Amanda Syrowatka, the director of Viceroy Bali, said since Biden is pushing for green initiatives, that could have had a big impact on air travel, as well. In terms of cost, it might have gotten worse before it got better, though, she cautioned.
“First, I believe that his administration would have continued focusing on sustainable travel initiatives,” she said. “So, this could have led to increased investments in green technologies for airlines and other transportation methods. Consequently, we might have seen an initial rise in travel costs due to these investments. However, over time, the focus on sustainability could have led to long-term savings and possibly even reduced costs due to improved efficiencies.”
Ronan said, with a new nominee on the ticket, we could see further change to the airline industry. “Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is being mentioned as a possible running mate for Vice President Harris. Thus, given Buttigieg’s focus on the airline industry, it would likely be highlighted by a potential Harris-Buttigieg ticket.”
Michael Montgomery, an intermittent lecturer in the department of health and human services at University of Michigan-Dearborn, agreed, saying Buttigieg on the ticket would be more good news for consumers. “Biden-Buttigieg consumer protection efforts aimed at greater transparency and the elimination of ‘junk fees’ in air travel are likely to be continued should any Democrat win the White House this fall, and consumers would benefit from that.”
Lower Costs To Travel Overseas
Jay Ternavan, founder of JayWay Travel, said that during his presidency, President Biden has strived to have good relationships with foreign leaders. Had he won a second term, Ternavan said that travelers could have benefited from these relationships.
“Biden’s foreign policy approach that sought to enhance friendly relations with other countries could have made it easier for the American people to travel when there were related challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. It might have resulted in better terms for the travel relations and less hindrances to the foreign traveler, perhaps implying cheaper travel.”
Syrowatka echoed these points, saying that Biden could have been responsible for much smoother travel abroad. “I think his administration might have fostered more stable relationships with other countries, which could have led to more favorable travel agreements and potentially lower international travel costs.”
Lower Costs for Commuters
“In a Biden administration, the ability to save on travel might depend on how you traveled,” Harrison said. Though “commuter rail” might not be what comes to mind when you think of a vacation, President Biden did have plans in the works to expand train systems so you could travel farther for less.
“Since 2020, Biden’s Department of Transportation has emphasized investing into projects that either increase the use of existing infrastructure or increase accountability for private companies in the travel space,” Harrison said. “Over $8 billion has been allocated for expanding existing commuter rail and establishing the first high speed rail in the U.S., which is a common form of transportation in other developed countries, such as Japan.”
As for what we can expect now that Biden is no longer on the Democratic ticket, Syrowatka said there could be some rapid fluctuations in price. “Now that he’s out of the race, there’s more uncertainty. I believe this might lead to more volatility in travel prices as businesses and travelers try to anticipate and adapt to different policy directions from the new candidates.”
Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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