Yahoo Finance 3 clues this coming holiday season will be epic for retailers
Santa is poised to be very kind to retailers this holiday season.
From record low unemployment to a resurgent stock market post midterm elections, U.S. consumers are in prime position to spend aggressively on gifts for the holidays. This season total retail sales in the U.S. may increase 5.8% to $1.002 trillion, according to eMarketer – that would be the first time holiday sales eclipse the $1 trillion mark.
“The state of the consumer is really solid, consumer confidence is at an 18-year high in the U.S., retail sales in the last quarter were solid,” Clorox chairman and CEO Benno Dorer tells Yahoo Finance. “It’s never perfect, but the state of the consumer is as solid as it can be.”
Already, consumer companies are rolling out the red carpet to entice shoppers to buy more than one gift this year. Target and Amazon have dropped the minimum requirement for free shipping on online orders. GoPro founder and CEO Nick Woodman told Yahoo Finance (watch below) that the action camera maker will have more deals on certain products compared with last year, mostly because big retailers asked for them.
Here are a few more clues this holiday season will be a banner one for retailers.
The high savings rate
Judging by the current U.S. savings rate, consumers have a good bit of money socked away for the holiday season. The personal savings rate stands at a hearty 6.2%, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It has steadily dropped from a peak of 7.4% in March as more confident consumers have loosened their purse strings.
Consumers already spending strongly
The spending momentum is running in the favor of retailers in the lead-up to the crucial holiday season. Retail sales through the first nine months of the year increased a strong 6% from the prior year, per Census Bureau data. Some of the strongest gains this year have come from discretionary spending categories such as apparel, furniture, online and restaurants.
Credit for the strength goes to the labor market. The U.S. economy has added 2.1 million jobs so far this year. Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate has trended lower to 3.7% in October from 4.1% at the start of the year.
Despite the recent stock market’s swoon, consumer confidence hit an 18-year high in October.
“Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions remains quite positive, primarily due to strong employment growth,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board.
Rocking retail stocks
If one believes that share prices today reflect what will happen six months down the line, then some high-profile retail stocks suggest a strong holiday quarter.
The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) has surged 14% over the past six months, outperforming single-digit percentage gains for the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite. Individual retail stock performance over the past six months has been positive, too.
Per six-month performance Yahoo Finance data:
Lululemon: +45%
Nordstrom: +37%
Target: +25%
Macy’s: +24%
Walmart: +22%
Dick’s Sporting Goods: +20%
Nike: +14%
Tiffany & Co: +14%
American Eagle Outfitters: +14%
Express: +13%
—
Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @BrianSozzi
Read more:
Coca-Cola CEO: Why we aren’t getting into the alcohol business
Hershey CEO: We are having a game-changing year
Panera Bread CEO: Here’s how you will order your food in the future
PepsiCo CFO: There are no plans to break up the company
Former Cisco CEO John Chambers on tech’s biggest problem
Burger King’s CEO shrugs off Wall Street’s worries
Roku Founder: The golden age of TV is just beginning
Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, LinkedIn, and reddit.
