2 Simple Predictions for EUR/USD, USD/JPY

Despite any fundamental and technical forces impacting the currency pairs, quite simply, it’s only a matter of time before EURUSD collapses and tests 1.29 and USDJPY breaks the key 100-level resistance.

The 1.30 level in EURUSD and 100 level in USDJPY are proving to be rock-solid support/resistance levels. While the euro is currently trading below 1.30, the selloff has been unconvincing, and the EURUSD pair has quickly magnetized back above this level on each occasion. USDJPY, on the other hand, has yet to break 100, and the high for each attempt has been lower than the one before it.

The resilience of the euro has been remarkable. Between the lower German IFO, PMI, and ZEW surveys, the European Central Bank (ECB) now has every reason to cut interest rates and could do so early as next week. The ECB also reported this morning that loan demand declined in the first quarter because of economic uncertainty, which is yet another reason why the Bank should ease.

Regardless, EURUSD has been unfazed thanks to the rise in US and European equities, expectations for Japanese purchases of European bonds, and political progress in Italy. Italian President GiorgioNapolitano has tasked Democratic Party Deputy Enrico Letta to form a new government and serve as Prime Minister. The next step is to see whether Letta will be confirmed by the divided Italian Parliament.

See also: Great Euro News Many Have Overlooked

We think it is only a matter of time before 1.30 finally breaks and the EURUSD sees 1.29, and that could happen before next week’s ECB meeting. Of the 35 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, 22 expect a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next meeting. This is only a small majority, but given how much Eurozone data has deteriorated, the best-case scenario for next week's ECB meeting is dovish comments from the central bank, which in and of itself is bad for the euro.

If the ECB doesn't ease in May, the Bank will at least set expectations for a rate cut in June. While there are no major Eurozone economic reports between now and the ECB meeting next Thursday, the euro could start selling off at the beginning of next week—if not sooner—on the mere expectation for more stimulus.

Simply stated, we don't think EURUSD will be able to hold 1.30 for much longer. A number of ECB policymakers will be speaking today and tomorrow, so keep an eye out for further discussions about a rate cut upcoming.

The Event that Could Push USD/JPY Past 100 This Week

Meanwhile, USDJPY is itching for a breakout, but weaker economic data continues to prevent the currency pair from doing so. US durable goods orders plunged 5.7% in the month of March after rising a downwardly revised 4.3% in February. Excluding transportation orders, durable goods fell for the second month in a row by 1.4%. While this data confirms that March was a difficult month for the US economy, a break of 100 this week won't be triggered by US data.

Instead, the main catalyst will be the Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy meeting and semi-annual report on the economy. If USDJPY doesn't break 100 after tomorrow night's event risks, then it should continue to hold below this key level until next week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision and non-farm payrolls (NFP) report.

By Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

--

Get stories like this on the Yahoo app and discover more every day.
Download it now.
Loading...
  • China economy seen growing 6.6 percent in fourth quarter - government think tank Reuters - 13 minutes ago

    China's economy is expected to grow at an annual 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter and post overall growth of 6.7 percent for the full year, the China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) said. The predictions by CASS, a top think-tank that advises … More »

  • Cisco plans $4 billion worth of expansion in Mexico - government
    Cisco plans $4 billion worth of expansion in Mexico - government Reuters - 18 minutes ago

    U.S. networking equipment maker Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO.O) plans more than $4 billion worth of expansion in Mexico between 2016 and 2018, the Mexican government said on Tuesday. Cisco's Chief Executive Officer Chuck Robbins made the announcement … More »

  • Need to address non-tariff barriers within Asean Business Times - 27 minutes ago

    ADDRESSING non-tariff barriers (NTB) in Asean still has a long way to go, and member countries must first work on key people-centric focus groups in order to start progressing, said Asean Business Advisory Council Malaysia chairman Tan Sri Dr Mohd … More »

  • Satellite Pipeline inks technical deal with AWS Schäfer Business Times - 28 minutes ago

    BERLIN: Satellite Pipeline Sdn Bhd has tied up with German pipe machine leader AWS Schäfer Technologie GmbH to start a steel and pipe heat induction bending workshop in Pahang. The long-term technical joint-venture agreement marks the first of … More »

  • Citizens, govt and businesses play role in city's transformation Business Times - 28 minutes ago

    MAKING a city a liveable space involves the citizens, the government and businesses and requires small and multiple meaningful projects for the transformation, said Think City Sdn Bhd executive director Hamdan Abdul Majeed.   “Cities can … More »

  • 'No changes to GST in near term' Business Times - 28 minutes ago

    THERE will be no changes to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in the near term as the government aims to embed the tax system into entire consumer spending system, said Finance Minister II Datuk Johari Abdul Ghani. “GST and the subsidy … More »

  • German firm eyes Silterra Business Times - 29 minutes ago

    BERLIN: German wafer fab giant X-Fab Silicon Foundaries is looking at Khazanah Nasional Bhd’s wafer fab company Silterra Malaysia Sdn Bhd in Kulim as a possible acquisition target. “We are looking at acquisitions around the world and Silterra is … More »

  • Malaysia on track to be high-income economy Business Times - 29 minutes ago

    Tabung Haji deputy chief executive officer Datuk Badlisyah Abdul Ghani said Malaysia made the wise decision early to reduce its dependency on the oil and gas sector, a strategy that many Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries — who are … More »

  • Toshiba revises up first-half forecast on solid memory chip sales
    Toshiba revises up first-half forecast on solid memory chip sales Reuters - 29 minutes ago

    TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Toshiba Corp said on Wednesday it is expecting to report a bigger first-half profit than previously forecast as prices for memory chips have climbed on an increase in demand for ... … More »

  • Canada approves US$27 bn LNG project, eyes Asia Business Times - 33 minutes ago

    MONTREAL: Canada approved Tuesday a Can$36 billion (US$27 billion USD) project by Malaysia’s Petronas to build a liquid natural gas pipeline along its Pacific Northwest coast, a massive project targeting Asian markets. The liquefied natural gas … More »

  • Dutch-led team to release initial MH17 criminal probe
    Dutch-led team to release initial MH17 criminal probe AFP News - 34 minutes ago

    A Dutch-led international team of criminal investigators on Wednesday will release initial findings into the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 amid growing frustration among relatives over the probe's pace. The preliminary findings are … More »

  • Wells Fargo CEO forfeits millions as board orders review
    Wells Fargo CEO forfeits millions as board orders review Reuters - 35 minutes ago

    Carrie Tolstedt, the former head of the retail division at the centre of a burgeoning sales scandal, has left the company ahead of her planned Dec. 31 retirement date, will get no severance and has forfeited unvested equity awards worth about $19 … More »

  • Asia stocks edge down on Europe bank woes, lower oil
    Asia stocks edge down on Europe bank woes, lower oil Reuters - 40 minutes ago

    Asian stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday, with European banking sector concerns and lower crude oil prices dulling investors' appetite for riskier assets. Equities in Asia had gained the previous day on a perceived win by Democrat Hillary … More »

  • Tokyo shares drop by break on dividend payments AFP - 41 minutes ago

    Tokyo shares eased off the previous day's rally Wednesday morning as more than half the firms on the Topix index traded without the right to a September dividend payment. The Nikkei 225 index fell 1.54 ... … More »

  • Oil prices climb after industry data shows U.S. stocks draw
    Oil prices climb after industry data shows U.S. stocks draw Reuters - 46 minutes ago

    Oil prices rose early on Wednesday, after sharp losses in the previous session, as industry data showed a surprise draw in U.S. crude stocks, although worries over a lack of agreement among producers to curb output kept a lid on gains. Crude … More »

  • Asia stocks inch up after Wall Street's gains, oil prices slide
    Asia stocks inch up after Wall Street's gains, oil prices slide Reuters - 46 minutes ago

    Asian stocks edged up early on Wednesday following an overnight rise for U.S. stocks, while reduced hopes that a meeting of major producers would reduce a oversupply weighed heavily on crude oil prices. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares … More »

  • Canadian government approves Petronas LNG project Business Times - 48 minutes ago

    RICHMOND: The Canadian government on Tuesday approved a proposed Petronas-led liquefied natural gas plant in northern British Columbia, ending a three-year wait for a decision and drawing condemnation from environmentalists. Prime Minister Justin … More »

  • Postal Bank Makes Tepid Debut Amid Report Soros Fund Invested Bloomberg - 49 minutes ago

    (Bloomberg) -- Postal Savings Bank of China Co. made a tepid share market debut in Hong Kong as a Chinese business magazine reported that a fund connected with billionaire George Soros was among investors. … More »

  • ECB's Lane says up to supervisors to mitigate risks of low rates
    ECB's Lane says up to supervisors to mitigate risks of low rates Reuters - 1 hour 14 minutes ago

    Ultra-low European Central Bank interest rates could lead to excessive risk-taking but it is up to supervisors to mitigate these risks as ECB policy is clearly doing the job intended, Governing Council member Philip Lane said on Tuesday. Lane, the … More »

  • China's PSBC begins trading in Hong Kong
    China's PSBC begins trading in Hong Kong AFP News - 1 hour 22 minutes ago

    PSBC raised $7.4 billion with the listing, which is the biggest since Chinese internet giant Alibaba floated in New York in 2014, raising $25 billion. Bank chairman Li Guohua described the launch as an "important milestone" for the company. … More »

  • Japan PM Abe says to work with BOJ to defeat deflation Reuters - 1 hour 27 minutes ago

    TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Wednesday that the government would continue to work closely with the Bank of Japan, using all policy tools, to defeat deflation and boost growth. ... … More »

  • Condos in a Garden City
    Condos in a Garden City The Edge Property - 1 hour 29 minutes ago

    Singapore’s Garden City journey began in 1963, when then Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew launched the campaign. The most recent transaction was in September where an 829 sq ft two-bedroom unit fetched $1,060,000 or $1,279 psf. … More »

  • Meituan-Dianping moves to second-half era with payment startup acquisition
    Meituan-Dianping moves to second-half era with payment startup acquisition e27 - 1 hour 35 minutes ago

    Meituan-Dianping is now able to run financial services ranging from mobile payment, bankcard payment to prepaid cards Meituan-Dianping, China’s largest group deals site, confirmed Monday that it has fully acquired Qiandai, a third-party payment … More »

  • Top Analyst Sees No Easy Win for Yuan Bears as Calm Endures (1) Bloomberg - 1 hour 38 minutes ago

    The exchange rate has barely budged against the dollar this quarter after slumping in the previous three months by the most since the nation unified official and market rates at the start of 1994. Some strategists have revised down their bearish … More »

  • Renault, Suzuki Said to on Proton’s Shortlist for Stake Sale (1) Bloomberg - 1 hour 42 minutes ago

    The carmaker has also chosen proposals from companies including Renault SA and Peugeot parent PSA Group, said two of the people, who asked not to be identified as discussions are private. A stake of as much as 51 percent will be sold in Proton, … More »

 
Recent Quotes
Symbol Price Change % Chg 
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
 
Sign-in to view quotes in your portfolios.

MARKET MOVERS

  • Most Actives
    Most Actives
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.142+0.001+0.71%
    N21.SI
    0.143+0.001+0.70%
    5DM.SI
    0.320.00+1.59%
    5OT.SI
    0.21+0.02+11.11%
    I07.SI
    0.60+0.01+1.69%
    42R.SI
  • % Gainers
    % Gainers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.24+0.03+14.29%
    BQN.SI
    0.21+0.02+11.11%
    I07.SI
    0.495+0.045+10.00%
    T55.SI
    0.199+0.009+4.74%
    S9B.SI
    0.295+0.010+3.51%
    P9J.SI
  • % Losers
    % Losers
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    0.225-0.035-13.46%
    40D.SI
    0.285-0.025-8.06%
    AYV.SI
    0.38-0.02-5.00%
    AWE.SI
    0.98-0.04-3.92%
    BCY.SI
    0.305-0.010-3.17%
    BDX.SI

Market Data

  • Currencies
    Currencies
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1.3594-0.0001-0.01%
    USDSGD=X
    1.5238-0.0011-0.07%
    EURSGD=X
    1.7674-0.0028-0.16%
    GBPSGD=X
    73.9860+0.13+0.18%
    SGDJPY=X
    5.7027+0.0004+0.01%
    SGDHKD=X
    3.0436+0.0046+0.15%
    SGDMYR=X
    9,511.0781-17.375-0.18%
    SGDIDR=X
    4.9066+0.0011+0.02%
    SGDCNY=X
    1.0428+0.0006+0.06%
    AUDSGD=X
  • Commodities
    Commodities
    NamePriceChange% Chg
    1,328.50-1.90-0.14%
    GCZ16.CMX
    19.13-0.04-0.18%
    SIZ16.CMX
    92.98-1.47-1.55%
    ^XAU
    2.170.00+0.16%
    HGZ16.CMX
    43.85+0.41+0.94%
    CLV16.NYM
  • Bonds
    Bonds
    TreasuryYield (%)Yield Change
    1.11-0.02
    ^FVX
    1.56-0.03
    ^TNX
    2.28-0.05
    ^TYX