How the Yield Spread Changed the Outlook for the Economy
An inverted yield curve, in which short-term yields (SHY) are higher than long-term yields (TLT), is considered as a warning sign for a future recession. The LEI’s economic model uses the yield spread between the ten-year Treasury bond (IEF) and the federal funds rate (TBF) as one of the components. The May LEI report indicated that this yield spread increased from ~1.2 in April to ~1.3 in May. The use of the term “symmetric” along with the inflation target in the May FOMC meeting minutes led to the increase of yield spreads in May.