Stocks tend to be most volatile around earnings season, when a good or bad report can make or break it. However, a good or even great earnings report doesn't necessarily translate into a huge pop for a stock.
During earnings season, BullMarket.com publishes a comprehensive 20- to 30-page Earnings Preview report for the week ahead each Friday.
Over the past year, BullMarket.com used the data it has collected to correctly predict investor reactions for approximately two-third of the stocks it's previewed.
In its latest earnings preview, BullMarket.com looks at several popular stocks, including Monster Beverage (MNST), Stec (STEC), CVS Caremark (CVS), Cree (CREE), SodaStream (SODA), Nuance (NUAN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Nordstrom (JWN), Fusion-io (FIO), and J.C. Penney (JCP).
Here is just a tiny sample of what BullMarket.com wrote about CVS:
CVS has topped the analyst EPS consensus six of the past eight quarters, missing the consensus once and meeting it once. During that period, the stock has risen six of eight quarters. Seasonally, the stock has risen once in the last four years.
Last quarter, the company reported a profit of $776 million, or 59 cents per share, for the three months that ended March 31st. It earned $713 million, or 52 cents per share, in the first quarter of 2011. Sales grew by 20%, or $5.1 billion, to $30.8 billion.
Earnings adjusted for the impact of one-time and non-cash items totaled 65 cents per share, which was three cents per share better than the analyst consensus estimate. Wall Street was looking for $30.3 billion in sales.
Looking at the retail business, sales grew by 10% to $16.0 billion. CVS is the second-largest retail pharmacy operator behind Walgreen (WAG) and its consolidated sales on a same-store basis jumped by 8.4% during the quarter, propelled by a 9.8% increase in pharmacy same-store sales.
Revenues in the Pharmacy Services segment, which is the Caremark PBM business, grew by 32% to $18.3 billion. The growth came mostly from new activity that resulted from CVS's acquisition of the Medicare prescription drug plan of Universal American Corp. (UAM) in Q2 2011; new clients acquired during the 2012 selling season; and drug cost inflation. ...
Outside of earnings, CVS has benefited the last seven months from the dispute between rival Walgreen and pharmacy benefits manager Express Scripts (ESRX), which forced Express Scripts patients to CVS and other pharmacies. While the dispute has been resolved, pharmacy customers are some of the hardest to win back, thus much of the damage has been done, and CVS' prediction that it will retain half of the Walgreen customers it gained as a result of the dispute seems low.
In addition, if Walgreen had to succumb to Express Scripts' term, then that likely will benefit CVS' PBM, Caremark, in any future negotiations with Walgreen and other drug stores. CVS management has always maintained that PBMs holding the line on drug stores was more important than the gains it would see from additional customers it gained from Walgreen because of the dispute. ...
The full BullMarket.com earnings analysis includes a look at historical earnings data and EPS trends for the companies above and more; examines past investor reactions to earnings in various contexts; gives options activity analysis; reviews previous-quarter earnings; and gives an opinion on both what earnings will look like and how investors will react based on the aforementioned data points.
Just a few of the recent correct calls BullMarket.com made for Q2 were:
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