Stocks tend to be most volatile around earnings season, when a good or bad report can make or break it. However, a good or even great earnings report doesn't necessarily translate into a huge pop for a stock.
During earnings season, BullMarket.com publishes a comprehensive 20- to 30-page Earnings Preview report for the week ahead each Friday.
Over the past year, BullMarket.com used the data it has collected to correctly predict investor reactions for approximately two-third of the stocks it's previewed.
In its latest earnings preview, BullMarket.com looks at several popular stocks, including Baidu (BIDU), Amazon.com (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Whole Foods (WFM), Caterpillar (CAT), Starbucks (SBUX), Facebook (FB), Deckers Outdoors (DECK), and Apple (AAPL).
Here is just a tiny sample of what BullMarket.com wrote about Netflix:
Netflix has topped the analyst EPS consensus seven of the past eight quarters, missing the consensus once. During that period, the stock has risen three of eight quarters. Seasonally, the stock has risen once in the last four years.
Last quarter, Netflix posted revenue of $870 million, which was up 21% from a year earlier. The company reported a net loss of -$4.6 million, or -8 cents per share, compared with a net profit of $60.2 million a year earlier.
Analysts had expected a loss of -27 cents per share.
Breaking down the segments, the domestic streaming business generated $507 million in sales and contributed $67 million in segment profit, for a margin of 13.2%. That was up from $476 million in sales and $52 million in contribution to profit in Q4 at a margin of 10.9%.
The domestic DVD business generated $320 million in sales and $146 million in profit, down from $370 million in sales and $194 million in profit in Q4. Margin declined to 45.6% from 52.4%.
International streaming generated $43 million in sales, up from $29 million sequentially, but the segment loss widened to -$103 million from -$60 million in Q4. ...
Outside of earnings, Netflix has basically thrown in the towel on profitability this year to expand internationally and beef up its content. The company upset customers last year when it split its business in two between DVD mail order and streaming and upped prices, leading to customer defections. Subscriber growth returned the past two quarters but does appear to be slowing.
As we've long said, Netflix doesn't have a wide moat around its business. The content providers certainly have no particular reason to show fidelity to Netflix. The company faces considerable potential competition from deep-pocketed players like Amazon.com, Google (GOOG), Apple, and a host of others. What a full-fledged Apple TV could mean for Netflix is also worth considering. ...
The full BullMarket.com earnings analysis includes a look at historical earnings data and EPS trends for the companies above and more; examines past investor reactions to earnings in various contexts; gives options activity analysis; reviews previous-quarter earnings; and gives an opinion on both what earnings will look like and how investors will react based on the aforementioned data points.
Just a few of the recent correct calls BullMarket.com made for Q2 were:
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