Mon, May 21, 2012, 12:12 PM SGT - Singapore Markets close in 4 hrs 48 mins

Oil Prices Rise: What Happens Next?

Analysts are divided on the immediate future for oil prices after recent rises, but caution that emerging markets and energy stocks could be affected.

Prices have been driven higher because of renewed concerns about Iran's political situation and sanctions imposed on Iran oil by Western governments.

At the same time, concerns about the Western economies - particularly Europe - could dampen the cost of oil. (Intercontinental Exchange Europe: lcocv1)

"Even if everyone loves each other, oil prices have very little downside potential. The market doesn't have enough supply and we are running quite tight," Johannes Benigni, Managing Director, JBC Energy, told CNBC.

"Right now, we could afford (to be without Iranian oil) - in the third or fourth quarter we can't afford it without Iranian oil," he said.

He believes that the amount Iran produces will decline independently from the sanctions as the country loses production capacity.

Oil-poor emerging market countries tend to suffer most from high oil prices, as the costs of the oil they need to fuel economic expansion rises.

While energy stocks often get a boost from rising oil prices, this is unlikely to happen this time round, according to Jens Zimmerman, Equity Analyst, ABN AMRO Private Banking.

"Because of the risk of high price volatility with Iran on the upside and Greece on the downside this is not an environment where the energy sector overall could outperform the broader market. As soon as oil price volatility increases, the earnings visibility decreases, and then investors get concerned and exit," he told CNBC.

He added that the risk-on environment since the start of the year, which should be favorable for energy stocks, had not been great for those stocks, a clear indication that investors are not comfortable getting back in.

"We tell our clients to stay defensive. We still prefer integrated oils, because as soon as risk aversion returns they will be the favourites," he added.



More From CNBC

 
  • Tsy  •  Salt Lake City, United States  •  2 months ago
    every penny increase costs that economy $1.4 billion - game over
    • Betty Jo Complete 2 months ago
      lol, right cause the oil guys take the money out back and burn it.
    • Gabe 2 months ago
      No they just keep it in their bank until they die so their children inherit it. So it's pretty much the same as burning it.
    • Fifth Green 2 months ago
      big oil is part of the economy,,, so its really a zero sum game.. We just need to remove subsidies and tax these guys..
  • Tom  •  Fresno, United States  •  2 months ago
    WHAT HAPPENS NEXT ? ? ? ? HIGHER PRICES FOR EVERYTHING ELSE !dufus
    • David 2 months ago
      Of course, no more season tickets to the Ball Games, you wasteful fools. We have Record profits at $0.02 per gal, because of world consumption being up. Should have thought of that UAW before you priced your selves out of a job and drove jobs overseas. We export oil because our old ancient refineries will not refine it. We then take the cash and buy Sweet lite crude that our old refineries will refine. Thus the reason for our exports of crude oil. The extreme left has blocked all attempts to build new refineries for over 30 years.
      It takes 15 yrs plus to build a refinery in today's USA.
    • KevinC 2 months ago
      What drove them overseas was the EPA standards getting stricter in the 70's. They used the unions as scapegoats or excuses.
  • Tiki Joe  •  San Diego, United States  •  2 months ago
    We all go broke! What a stupid question.
    • bill 2 months ago
      Be a part of saving our jobs and economy Support the Memorial 3 Day Weekend Gasoline and Diesel Boycott .
    • Just another Joe 2 months ago
      I got it, buy a Chevy Volt. Oh Wait, They're too expensive and do not acually save you money. Darn Those Free Market Buyers. Why do they have to be able to add and subtract? If only we could force them to buy Volts, Oh Wait GE to the rescue. Join The Picken's Plan for a REAL solution. Google it.
    • Vassil Jikov 2 months ago
      Yes drive w/ CNG, I see a lot of commercial transportation and in EU a lot of people are driving cars., Why not us ?
  • mage  •  Cincinnati, United States  •  2 months ago
    I love it, it takes ivy leagued analysts and 100's of bureucrats to determine what happens when oil prices increase, duh.... the economy slumps, no one has money to buy anything else and prices increase due to increased mfg and shipping cost. Can I get a consulting job now.
    • bill 2 months ago
      Memorial 3 Day Weekend National Gasoline and Diesel Boycott is coming May 26,27 and 28th let the oil speculators speculate on that.
    • mage 2 months ago
      awesome lets get the word out
    • Bill 2 months ago
      tally ho....i'm in....
  • DJ  •  Boston, United States  •  2 months ago
    Currently, 25% of all mortgage holders are under water, all those who can just barely make payments month to month will be hit hard buy the higher cost of gas and by extension, everything else, we can expect the economy to tank again, foreclosures to pick up and jobs to be lost,....happy days are here again.
  • donald  •  2 months ago
    more foreclosures? more layoffs?
    • 311 fan 2 months ago
      More people quit working, too expensive to get to work
    • bill 2 months ago
      BOYCOTT MEMORIAL 3 DAY WEEKEND. ALL GASOLINE AND DIESEL
  • Justin  •  Metairie, United States  •  2 months ago
    SCAMMMM!!! The US is useing less oil than it did in 1995 and we are producing the highest ammount in this country currently than we ever have before. Also years ago a barrel shot up to 150 and we still didnt pay as much per gallon as we are today. This is all Bull that we are paying so much currently. With all the advancement in alternative fuels and the patents the oil companies bought up in the 80's for alternatives. We should push for total independance no more talk!!! ACTION
  • Tommy  •  2 months ago
    Bernanke and the Fed can print and oil goes higher and higher. So keep on QEing/Twisting Bernanke and we we will see $10/gal gasoline. Sorry to say but debasing your currency creates inflation, which shows up in things like oil and food. Eventually everything else, except maybe I-PODs. Try filling you tank and eating with I-PODs.
  • teresa  •  Indianapolis, United States  •  2 months ago
    Why is the common people are more intelligent then the ones running this country??? Because we have no choice but to manage our money or what money we have left after paying for high gas prices, high grocery prices - etc!!!
  • Phuk-u-bernanke  •  2 months ago
    You have to be psychologically impaired if thinking this economy is actually recovering.
  • nobody  •  2 months ago
    And Iranian have a last laugh .....when they see us slowly going to price of $5 a gallon.
  • Mark  •  2 months ago
    Hey Yahoo censorship. What happens next? Obama will use his energy plan, blame and excuses.
  • JACK  •  2 months ago
    CNN.........no mention of 110.00 oil...............................
  • james  •  2 months ago
    The consumer slows buying, the factorys lay off, the market drops and we go the financial loop again.
  • GuessWho  •  2 months ago
    Well, this man reportedly had rescued our nation from the big depression and from the possibly much, much higher gas prices at seven or eight dollars a gallon. So, either way, he would take credits for any events and activities that would benefit him to win another term!
  • Jobs Jobs  •  2 months ago
    What next? people start walk, prices for everything goes up except salaries. Gallon milk is around $5 already even before oil price reach that at pumps.
  • G-Men  •  2 months ago
    This is what you get with Obama:
    1 - Foreign policy failure - instability in middle east
    2 - Consistent anti-oil agenda - virtually no gulf oil permits being issued after a full shutdown
    Vote in Nov.
  • me  •  2 months ago
    ..I'm amazed, what happened to Oblamer's "Hope & Change".."Yes We Can"??? ..you idiots!
  • blane  •  2 months ago
    wow, with those budding whiz kids we have as elected officials, what will be the next suprise, what will they expect us as taxpayers to pay for?
  • Jean Valjean II  •  Mt Pleasant, United States  •  2 months ago
    ???? WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?? Why haven't you heard?? The fading once NEW MESSIAH last year said, "Rotate your tires..keep them properly inflated...etc..But now we just need ALGAE!!! to begin pouring form the pump. We heard him say that yesterday.Now after we wiped the tears from our laughing eyes and then began laughing again, we tried to find a Broker to get us in omn the ground flower of THE ALGAE SOLUTION.But they were all too busy taking phone calls from #$%$ off Solyndra backers.WHAT'S IT ALL ABOUT, ALGAE......."Obama and Biden total knowledge of business quotient is NILL or IS IT NIL ??LOL
 
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