Here's a clue of how big home price drop is going to be

Is it time to adjust the property curbs?

According to PropNex, prices in the CCR are expected to fall by another 2 to 3 percent in the next 3 quarters this year, with an estimated 4 to 5 percent decline in 4Q14 y-o-y due to the higher absolute quantum and larger unit sizes compared to homes in the other regions.

RCR price decline could slow in the second half this year, with an overall decline of about 5 percent by 4Q14 y-o-y. However, this segment could be more resilient given its dual attributes of close proximity to the city centre and lower prices compared to the high-end new private homes in CCR.

For OCR, PropNex expects prices of mass market homes to fall by another 2 to 3 percent this year, with an estimated 3 percent decline in 4Q14 y-o-y. This is due largely to the moderation in HDB resale flat prices which would inevitably have an adverse impact on upgraders’ purchasing power.

As long as borrowing costs stay low, the government is unlikely to reverse the earlier anti-speculation measures. With TDSR being a long-term instrument—and together with the ABSD, will continue dampen any speculative activity. Under such an environment, PropNex expects price weakness to persist. Assuming that current policies remain in force to year end, overall private home prices is envisaged to decline by about 4 to 5 percent in 2014 y-o-y.

“It may be timely to adjust some of the cooling measures—especially the ABSD, in order to ensure a sustainable growth of private property prices in the long term,” said Mr Mohd Ismail, CEO of PropNex Realty.

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