The Euro gained on hopes Greece was closer to firmly securing bailout cash as Athens initiated a debt buyback. The Aussie fell on RBA rate cut bets.
Talking Points
- Australian Dollar Sinks on Swelling RBA Rate Cut Expectations
- Euro Outperforms as EZ FinMins Meet, Greece Begins Buyback
- UK, Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs in Focus on the Data Docket
The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade as forex traders looked ahead to tomorrow’s RBA interest rate decision. Priced-in expectations point to a 92 percent probability of a 25bps rate cut. The Euro proved strongest at the start of the trading week as Eurozone finance ministers prepared to gather in Brussels once again. The spotlight is on a Greek debt buyback, the successful outcome of which is critical securing the continued flow of bailout funds. For its part, the Athens offered to repurchase €10 billion of its outstanding debt today.
On the economic data front, the final revision of November’s Eurozone Manufacturing PMI reading is expected to confirm a print at 46.2, showing factor-sector activity shank for a 16th consecutive month (albeit at a slower pace than in October). A significant downward revision may undermine Euro buoyancy as traders reconsider the possibility of a dovish turn at this week’s ECB policy meeting. UK Manufacturing PMI is also on tap, with forecast calling for a slight nudge higher to 48.0 in November from 47.5 in the prior month. Absent an unexpected push lower, the result is unlikely to yield a lasting impact on price action given its limited scope to nudge BOE policy expectations ahead of this week’s MPC sit-down.
Asia Session: What Happened
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
21:45 |
NZD |
Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (3Q) |
-3.2% |
-1.5% |
-2.6% (R-) |
|
22:30 |
AUD |
AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (NOV) |
43.6 |
- |
45.2 |
|
23:30 |
AUD |
TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (NOV) |
-0.1% |
- |
0.1% |
|
23:30 |
AUD |
TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (NOV) |
2.5% |
- |
2.4% |
|
23:30 |
AUD |
RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (NOV) |
0.0% |
- |
-1.0% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Capital Spending (3Q) |
2.2% |
4.4% |
7.7% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Capital Spending excl Software(3Q) |
2.4% |
1.0% |
6.6% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (OCT) |
0.26% |
- |
0.25% |
|
0:01 |
GBP |
Lloyds Business Barometer (NOV) |
17 |
- |
17 |
|
0:01 |
GBP |
Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (NOV) |
-0.1% |
- |
-0.1% |
|
0:01 |
GBP |
Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (NOV) |
-0.3% |
- |
-0.4% |
|
0:30 |
AUD |
Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (3Q) |
-2.9% |
-3.0% |
-0.3% (R+) |
|
0:30 |
AUD |
Inventories (3Q) |
1.1% |
0.4% |
0.3% (R-) |
|
0:30 |
AUD |
Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (OCT) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
0:30 |
AUD |
ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (NOV) |
-2.9% |
- |
-4.6% |
|
1:00 |
CNY |
Non-manufacturing PMI (NOV) |
55.6 |
- |
55.5 |
|
1:45 |
CNY |
HSBC Manufacturing PMI (NOV) |
50.5 |
50.4 |
49.5 |
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Vehicle Sales (YoY) (NOV) |
-3.3% |
- |
-9.0% |
|
5:30 |
AUD |
RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (NOV) |
-11.6% |
- |
-16.2% (R-) |
|
5:30 |
AUD |
RBA Commodity Price Index (NOV) |
87.0 |
- |
87.2 (R-) |
Euro Session: What to Expect
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
8:15 |
CHF |
Retail Sales – Real (YoY) (OCT) |
3.8% |
5.4% |
Medium |
|
8:30 |
CHF |
SVME Manufacturing PMI (NOV) |
47 |
46.1 |
Medium |
|
8:45 |
EUR |
Italian PMI Manufacturing (NOV) |
46.0 |
45.5 |
Low |
|
8:50 |
EUR |
French PMI Manufacturing (NOV F) |
44.7 |
44.7 |
Low |
|
8:55 |
EUR |
German PMI Manufacturing (NOV F) |
46.8 |
46.8 |
Medium |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (NOV F) |
46.2 |
46.2 |
Medium |
|
9:30 |
GBP |
PMI Manufacturing (NOV) |
48.0 |
47.5 |
Medium |
|
16:00 |
EUR |
Italian Budget Balance (NOV) |
- |
-13.1B |
Low |
|
16:00 |
EUR |
Italian Budget Balance YTD (NOV) |
- |
-58.5B |
Low |
|
16:00 |
EUR |
Eurozone Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels |
- |
- |
High |
|
17:00 |
EUR |
Italian New Car Registrations (YoY) (NOV) |
- |
-12.39% |
Low |
Critical Levels **
|
CCY |
SUPPORT |
RESISTANCE |
|
EURUSD |
1.2960 |
1.3114 |
|
GBPUSD |
1.5980 |
1.6096 |
** Intraday support and resistance levels are derived from Pivot Points
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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