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Daily Ticker

The Looming Threat to Gas Prices: Strait of Hormuz Explained

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Global oil prices jumped to a nine-month high Tuesday to $106 a barrel after Iran announced it was stopping oil shipments to France and Britain. Iran is responding to heavy pressure from America, Europe and other allies, who want to stop the country's nuclear power program before the radical regime can build nuclear weapons.

This most recent move by Iran to ban oil exports to the two European countries comes as a direct preemptive response to the European Union's planned Iran oil embargo set for this summer. The EU has already frozen assets of Iran's central bank.

In recent weeks, you've also probably heard news stories about Iran threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. It hasn't happened yet, but Iran has indicated it could close the Strait or take other measures should the country feel threatened enough by the Western allies.

But right now you might be wondering: What is the Strait of Hormuz and why does it matter TO YOU?

If Iran tries to block the Strait it could have a huge impact on world oil prices, which would directly impact how much you pay for groceries, gas and electronics — all of which use oil in some way, whether it's part of the manufacturing or shipping process.

The Strait of Hormuz is a waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. It is the only passage to the open ocean for some of the biggest oil producers in the Middle East

About 20% of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, including crude oil produced in Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Kuwait. It's a water way that's "absolutely critical to the world economy," according Dr. Daniel Yergin, energy expert and Pulitzer Prize winning author of The Prize and The Quest.

Yergin calls the Strait of Hormuz "the most important chokepoint in the world."

Because so much of the world's oil travels through Strait, any disruption to the shipping channel would have a major impact on global crude oil prices, which ultimately determine the price we pay for gas at the pump.

Some analysts estimate the price of oil could go up by 50% within days if there's a disruption of supply, which would mean much higher prices for us filling our tanks at the gas station — and anything else that requires the use of oil. Crude oil and gas prices have risen sharply since September in large part because of the threat of a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

"We've seen oil prices just on threats go up $5, $10 a barrel" in a day, Yergin says. "This is Iran's trump card."

The average price for regular unleaded gas today is $3.58 up nearly 9% since the beginning of this year, according to AAA.com. That is still slightly lower than the highest record average price of $4.11 set in July 2008. But many analysts are predicting that with the threat from Iran coupled with the warmer weather ahead, the U.S. maybe be headed for $4 or even $5 gas prices.

Whether Iran really can shut down the Strait is a big question. Jan Stuart of Credit Suisse says it would be "suicidal" for the Iranians to even try.

"Closing the Strait of Hormuz -- that thing is...30 miles wide," Stuart says. "You need a gazillion boats to literally close it off. It can't happen." (See: $100 Oil Is Here to Stay, but Iran Closing the Strait of Hormuz "Can't Happen": Stuart)

Still, Iran's Navy has recently been conducting military exercises in the area. Some experts say the Iranians are preparing to attack oil tankers in the Strait with missiles and torpedoes from submarines. They might not shut the critical passage down but such attacks would certainly disrupt crude shipments and cause a spike in oil prices.

Whether the Iranians just bluster or actually go on the attack, we're likely to hear more news about this critical waterway in the days and weeks ahead, and that news will have a direct impact on the global economy and how much you're paying for products here in the U.S.

Aaron Task is the host of The Daily Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @aarontask or email him at altask@yahoo.com

For more from Yahoo! Finance on the threat of rising oil and gas prices, see:

Economy Can Handle Higher Oil and Gas Prices, Which Are Coming: Frank Holmes

5 Tips to Find the Cheapest Gas Prices

 
  • REID  •  Atlanta, United States  •  1 month 17 days ago
    So how long are speculators going to blame the possible closing of the Strait of Hormus for the rising price of oil? The strait has not closed and probably never will.
  • Cynthia  •  2 months ago
    The greatest threat to gas prices is nothing more than the Speculators, Wall Street, and our government.
    • Rob F 2 months ago
      Most of the time that is the case but this issue is a real threat.
    • Joe 2 months ago
      Your right Cynthia.
    • Monique 2 months ago
      you r sooooooooo right Cynthia, you can also add, the red-neck truck drivers, Rush Limp-dick, and red neck republicans!!
  • Howard  •  2 months ago
    WHY NO REFINE OUR ON FROM ALASKA INSTEAD SENDING IT TO JAPAN OUR CHINA THE GOOD OLD USA HAS NOT REFIND ONE DROP ON ALASKA CRUDE OIL I WORK AT A REF. HERE IN CA. I KNOW. OK?
    • radford 2 months ago
      The Alaska pipeline was built to supply our buddy Japan with oil, right? I thought everyone knew this....
    • John 2 months ago
      Actually some Alaskan oil is refined in the US for sale on the West Coast; by "some" I mean relatively little. There are three refineries inside 20 miles of Billings MT that do so; until Texas gets their new pipeline put in "just" for Tar Sands oil and manages to steal that too so they can further cement their status foisted on the rest of us as the refining center for US consumption and export. The real question regardless of where oil is coming from is why the United States is far and away the largest exporter of refined petroleum?
    • Barbie 2 months ago
      They are fkg us w no lube. all that oil going out for pennies on the dollar and then we buy it back for tons! #$%$ huh?
  • Sandra  •  Elmhurst, United States  •  2 months ago
    sounds to me to be just a ploy to raise oil prices ...because of just a threat.... COME ON
    • russ h 2 months ago
      It's call speculation..Give Wall Street a call
    • Rafael 2 months ago
      Sounds like someone wasn't paying attention in 9th grade economics class
    • Steven D. Smith 2 months ago
      Yeah, damn right.

      "Honk for hemp".
  • T J  •  Atlanta, United States  •  2 months ago
    Iran, can't do nothing. this story is just pure popaganda.
    • Dave 2 months ago
      "can't do nothing"..? do you mean "can't do anything"..? i ask because "can't do nothing" is a double negative. and actually they can do something. they can make threats and act like unstable psychos which in turn creates regional instability, which gives the oil companies another reason to raise oil prices, which in turn hurts western economy. you see, missiles & bombs aren't the only to strike your enemy.
  • Robert  •  Houston, United States  •  2 months ago
    The question is "Could gas hit $5.00 a gallon", you can count on it.
    • Tom S 2 months ago
      Another "First" for 0bama.
    • liam oneal 2 months ago
      Not Obama. Oil speculators. It's been going on since 2000.
    • MattM 2 months ago
      It is where I live.
  • DaveC  •  Cincinnati, United States  •  2 months ago
    Did you hear him ? If they just TRY to shut it down ( which it can't ) oil would go up 50%. Iran knows it would get annihilated. U.S. oil speculators are behind this ridiculous story. Firtunes are being made by a select few.
  • ang  •  Dallas, United States  •  2 months ago
    If gas hits $5.00 a gallon or more you will see the american people cutting back on spending and with less money to stimulate the economy means we will head right back into another recession.
  • DaveC  •  Cincinnati, United States  •  2 months ago
    Iran has nothing to do with oil prices. All that you need to do is do a search on "who are the oil speculators". They are bankers. They, and their oil investor friends, have made many billions of dollars while they manipulate oil prices. Our government knows this because one time they were fined $50 Million for manipulating prices. Yep, they were fined $50 million after they stole billions thru fraud, and they were allowed to keep the billions. They guarantee profits for their investors because they have unrestricted power to do so. The more money pumped into oil, the higher the prices MUST go. When George Bush Jr took office oil was $25 a barrel and gasoline was $1.44 a gallon. What has changed ? Nothing. In the first ten months of 2011, the U.S. exported 848 million barrels (worth $73.4 billion) and imported 750 million barrels. The U.S. exports an average of 117 million gallons of fuel per day. There is no oil shortage and there has never been an oil shortage. Using this oil scam, trillions left the U.S. economy. Millions lost their jobs and their homes. President Obama recently said that higher oil prices means that the economy is prospering. I'd love to hear how that is possible. Washington knows what is going on and they still sit on their hands while the economy continues its decline and the true unemployment numbers of around 22% increases.
  • Iron Horse  •  Newark, United States  •  2 months ago
    The high oil prices are caused by the oil speculators most of our oil comes
    from Canada, US, Mexico, South America and less from the Arab world. We
    should have no problems with gasoline prices someone is squeezing the American
    consumer.
  • Charles  •  Mayfield, United States  •  2 months ago
    Remember the oil embargo during the Carter administration? Ronald Regan said to hell with you we will find our own oil here. This is what happened next. The embargo was lifted and the price of oil went into the basement. Why do we not try that?
  • D Rose  •  2 months ago
    If we are not buying iran's oil why should our prices go up. Take oil away from the speculators they are causing the higher prices
  • lucifer for ebay  •  Vancouver, United States  •  2 months ago
    EVEN IF THEY COULD BLOCK THE STRAIT..HOW LONG COULD THEY HOLD IT 10 OR 20 HOURS....NO EXCUSE FOR THE GASGOUGHING PRICES..
  • Richone  •  Phoenix, United States  •  2 months ago
    Amazing how the media has helped to create the apathy related to high prices. The only reason for high gas prices is GREED. Nothing more.. We could have alternative fuel vehicles, but the ones that work are taken off the market. We could use our OWN oil, but that would drive prices down and the profits to the NOBILITY would shrink. Follow the MONEY... there is your answer. Those that argue that it isn't GREED have drank the Kook-Aid.
  • jackt  •  Irvine, United States  •  2 months ago
    Well its $4.09 a gallon here in California right now, up from $3.74 just 2 weeks ago. So go ahead, lets get it up to 5 or 6 a gallon, and see what happnes. Eventually, Amercians are going to have had enough, and then watch out for the riots.
  • John  •  Hyde Park, United States  •  2 months ago
    None of this #$%$ really matters. The harsh truth is that the American people cannot increase their income fast enough to keep pace with the overnight rising costs for oil. The wallstreet tycoons and the oil barons will make aastonishing unreal profits (again) but only at the cost of driving our slowly recovering economy right back to the great depression. How am I supposed to buy a hybrid car to offset the increase in the price of oil when my income is drastically reduced practically overnight by these oil fluctuations. This whole situation makes me sick.
  • Ed G.  •  2 months ago
    There is no shortage of oil and gasoline production is at it's highest level. The problem is SPECULATORS who artificially run up the price to increase profit. This is not a new problem, but our current administration has failed to deal with it. Oil hit $140 /barrel under Busch but gas never saw $5.00 /gallon. So why do we face it now? This administration won't dare take on Big Oil in an election year. -- OMG 2012
  • Slam  •  Sacramento, United States  •  2 months ago
    It won't hit $5, the truth is big oil wants to make as much money as possible without breaking us... because even they know that the profits will dive if we give up... they want to use any and every excuse to raise the price through speculation without going over the top
  • Captain  •  2 months ago
    So much for the so-called "liberal" media. The Looming Threat to Gas Prices is not the Strait of Hormuz; the threat is the speculators on Wall Street. Since America already has a surplus of oil (and supply and demand, therefore, is not a factor), oil prices have nothing to do with the Strait of Hormuz. Prices are being inflated by speculators on Wall Street. Traditionally, Republicans have always been in bed with Big Oil, e.g. the Bushes, Dick Cheney, etc. Yet, here we are trying to be convinced that it is the conflict in this small body of water and the Iranians that are the cause for the higher prices. If the media were truly liberal or just being truthful, it would point out that the Strait of Hormuz is just providing an excuse to those that control oil prices to bump them up.
  • thelightofthenorthstar  •  2 months ago
    "What about the greatest threat to all of us? Wall St's continued greed and avarice. They have manipulated oil up to $100 a barrel. This is an enormous threat to the world’s economy! If you don't know it; listen up! Oil refineries all over the world are shutting down! Refineries in Hawaii, St Croix, Houston, Philly, Delaware, other places in the US, and Europe are shutting down! They are shutting down for three reasons (1) The price of oil is too high. (Thanks speculators on Wall St!) (2) There is a glut of oil and distillates and no place left to store it. Some refineries are turning into oil storage facilities. They can make more money from renting tanks to banks and hedge funds than they can make by producing product. (3) Due to the European oil embargo on Iran, Iran is selling oil at a heavily discounted rate to Asian refineries who will sell refined products to US cheaper than American refineries can make them. Bottom line; WE ARE SO SCREWED!!! Repeal the Commodities Modernization Act of 2000 and the Financial Modernization Act of 1999 and get speculators out of the Commodities markets!

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