Blog Posts by Aaron Task

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Earlier this month, Harvard Professor Martin Feldstein generated some headlines after declaring on Bloomberg TV "that this is a bubble in the stock market created by low long-term interest rates that the Fed has engineered."

Two weeks later, "a lot of air has come out of the stock market" and Feldstein sees more 'deflation' ahead for one main reason: The Fed is unlikely to do another round of quantitative easing.

While two rounds of QE and Operation Twist have had the desired result -- lower bond yields and a revival of equity prices -- the Fed's actions are "not really moving actual economic activity," Feldstein notes. "Having tried it twice and not succeeded, it's not clear there's any reason for them to do it again."

The former head of Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers says Ben Bernanke is right that the onus is on fiscal policymakers now. While he wishes otherwise, Feldstein has little faith Congress will tackle the looming 'fiscal

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The fallout from JPMorgan Chase's $2 billion trading loss continues. Following yesterday's departure of three high-ranking execs, including CIO Ina Drew, the focus is now shifting to the firm's chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon.

At Tuesday's annual shareholder meeting in Tampa, there was a proposal on the ballot to strip Dimon of his chairmanship. The measure failed, as was widely expected, and shareholders reaffirmed Dimon's $23 million 2011 pay package.

But the ballot is noteworthy because it received 40% of the vote and comes as outside observers, including MIT's Simon Johnson and Currency Wars author James Rickards, have called for Dimon's resignation.

Speaking to shareholders, Dimon reiterated that the trading loss, which has reenergized the debate over bank regulation, was "self-inflicted."

Dimon's vocal opposition to many of the new regulations, most notably the Volcker rule, has animated those on the other side of the debate. Lawmakers in both

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In, Unintended Consequences: Why Everything You've Been Told About the Economy Is Wrong, Edward Conard sets out to provide "a prescription for how to grow the economy."

Thanks to a recent NY Times Magazine article, and because he worked closely with GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney at Bain Capital, Conard has become a lightning rod for controversy -- described by some as a champion of income inequality.

There are elements of this in Conard's book -- such as when he argues the societal benefits of economic competition is closer to 20-to-1 -- meaning society gets $20 of value for every $1 an investor earns -- vs. the 5-to-1 level commonly cited. But, in reality, Conard's book is pretty standard conservative economic fare wrapped with a philosophical view that is unique, at least in its public expression.

"Underneath the book is a moral argument," he says. "Talented people have a responsibility to get the training they need to be successful risk

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U.S. stocks stumbled out of the gate and major European bourses suffered heavy losses Monday after another weekend of negative headlines in the eurozone.

First, Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union party suffered big losses in a local election for the second straight week. In North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's largest state, the CDU received just 26% of the vote while a coalition of left-leaning Social Democrats and Green party candidates received over 50%.

The election results raise the risk that Merkel's government will be ousted in the general election next year and embolden newly elected French President Francois Hollande to push harder for pro-growth measures in the EU vs. the austerity favored by Merkel.

Second, Greek party leaders failed to form a coalition government, raising the possibility of another national election in Europe's most-troubled economy. The political crisis comes amid rising market expectations that Greece will exit the eurozone sooner rather than later.

Notably, NY Times columnist Paul Krugman mused this weekend that Greece could abandon the euro as soon as "next month," which he speculates could be the beginning of the "end game" for the euro itself. "And we're talking about months, not years, for this to play out," he writes.

In the accompanying video, Henry and I discuss these latest euro-developments with Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and author of Every Nation for Itself: Winner & Losers in a G-Zero World.

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Gold, oil, copper and a host of other commodities were heading lower Monday morning, continuing a recent pattern that has some wondering if the commodity "super-cycle" has come to an end.

After falling 13% in 2011, the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index entered this week at its lowest level since September 2010 amid concern about slowing global growth hurting demand. In addition, the dollar has benefited from Europe's ongoing debt crisis, resulting in lower prices for hard assets, notably gold and silver.

More weakness is likely in the short-term, in part due to seasonal factors as well as the slowdown of the economy, says Frank Holmes, CEO and CIO of U.S. Global Investors. Crude, for example, could "easily" fall to as low as $80 mid-summer he says, predicting continued near-term weakness for gold as well.

But Holmes -- a longtime, long-term bull on resource assets -- says additional short-term weakness will prove to be a long-term buying opportunity

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Shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) tumbled Friday morning after the firm shocked investors Thursday evening by disclosing a $2 billion trading loss.

The revelations provide more evidence "the banks cannot manage their risk," says MIT Sloan School professor and former IMF chief economist Simon Johnson. "We need to get our [banks] out of this crazy business before they do more profound damage to all of us."

As with many others, Johnson says JPMorgan's big loss prove the need for more stringent regulation of banks' trading activities. "Anyone who opposes the Volcker Rule now should be exposed to repeated and complete public ridicule," he says.

(On Thursday's conference call, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the hedging that led to the loss would not have violated the Volcker Rule, but that has only emboldened proponents of tougher restrictions on banks. "The enormous loss JPMorgan announced today is just the latest evidence that what banks call 'hedges' are

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U.S. stocks were on track to break a six-day losing streak Thursday, rallying despite a warning from Cisco (CSCO) and yet another round of grim news out of Europe.

"Perhaps the U.S. market is getting anesthetized to Europe because it has been a steady drip, drip of bad news," says Steven Rattner, chairman of Willett Advisors LLC, where he manages money for NY Mayor Mike Bloomberg.

Indeed, one could argue the big surprise is U.S. markets haven't fared worse this week, given the steady drumbeat of bad news from Europe. The Dow fell just 3.3% in its six-day slide and several days this week were notable for the market closing well off its intraday lows. European stocks have suffered greater losses and the euro fell to a 3-month low vs. the dollar this week; still, it remains well within the range of $1.27 to $1.35 that's been in place since December, The WSJ reports.

Some optimists are taking solace in the market's "resilience" to the bad news. Others

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"America is like a championship team that has hit a slump," according to former U.S. Senator and basketball Hall of Famer Bill Bradley.

In his latest book, We Can All Do Better, Bradley lays out a game plan designed to get America back in championship form. The book reads a bit like a campaign platform, featuring a number of policy prescriptions designed to revive the economy, although Bradley assures me he's not running for any political office.

"I wanted to write a book to restore hope," he says. "To remind people we've encountered difficult problems in the past...and we always managed to pull through. So be optimistic we'll do it this time."

Despite the highly partisan atmosphere in Washington, Bradley is even optimistic about our elected officials being able to work together to address America's seemingly intractable problems. "Don't count Congress out yet," he writes. "Good sense and true patriotism may well prevail." ('May' being the