• Get Rid of the Debt Ceiling: Alice Rivlin

    When Federal Reserve officials meet next week for their regularly scheduled policy meeting, they will be considering lots of economic data including Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs report. The unemployment rate last month fell to 7.7%, the lowest rate in four years. November payrolls rose 146,000—about 50% more than forecast.

    Alice Rivlin, former vice chair of the Fed, says the jobs report is reassuring but it does not portend a change in Fed policy.

    "The Fed has been communicating that it's going to continue its current policy," Rivlin tells The Daily Ticker. "It's going to buy bonds and keep a low interest rate for the foreseeable future. I don't see why this jobs number is going to influence that."

    Rivlin says she would probably vote in favor of the Fed's current policy of low rates and bond purchases if she was still vice chair. But she does have doubts about it.

    "I don't think [Fed policy] is dangerous….but I don't think it's doing much marginal good," she notes.

    Rivlin says

    Read More »from Get Rid of the Debt Ceiling: Alice Rivlin
  • U.S. employers added 146,000 new jobs in November and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.7% from 7.9% -- the lowest since December 2008. The consensus was for a jobs gain of just 90,000.

    The uptick in jobs was "a pleasant surprise" but the report was "mixed," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS. The unemployment rate fell largely because 350,000 Americans dropped out of the labor force, Behravesh notes. In addition, the government revised down the jobs tally for September and October by 49,000.

    Behravesh admits he was "surprised" by the faster pace of job creation in November and attributes the shock to an overestimation of Sandy's impact on Northeast employers. The government reported that Superstorm Sandy had a minimal effect on the labor market. The economy could see a bounce in the next few months as thousands of workers are hired to rebuild and reconstruct communities devastated by the storm, Behravesh believes.

    "Natural disasters tend to shift the numbers around a

    Read More »from Jobs Growth a “Pleasant Surprise” But Economy Still Just “Slogging Along”: Economist
  • The 91% Tax Fantasy: Peter Schiff

    The fiscal cliff deadline is looming and President Obama refuses to sign any legislation that doesn't raise tax rates on the top 2%. There is an understandable amount of debate on either side of the aisle over the president's decision.

    In the past month, Warren Buffett and Paul Krugman have each released opinion pieces that tout the 1950s as an exemplary era for the country. The top tax rate was as high as 91% but individual wealth and GDP still managed to grow like wildfire.

    In Krugman's Twinkie Manifesto, he claims that in the 1950s "incomes in the top bracket faced a marginal tax rate of 91% while taxes on corporate profits were twice as large, relative to national income, as in recent years."

    Sure, executives didn't have mansions with a team of staff members he says but, "the high-tax, strong-union decades after World War II were in fact marked by spectacular, widely shared economic growth: nothing before or since has matched the doubling of median family income between 1947 and

    Read More »from The 91% Tax Fantasy: Peter Schiff
  • Shares of Apple (AAPL) dropped more than 6.4% on Wednesday and the company lost $35 billion in market value. Apple opened down 3.2% on Thursday and had fallen below $530 in earlier trading.

    For technical traders, this news indicates that Apple has traversed the death cross meaning Apple's long-term moving average has broken above its short-term support level. The death cross typically indicates that a bear market is approaching.

    Explanations for the abrupt loss are plentiful and varied.

    One explanation is that Google's Android gadgets are continuing to gain ground, especially in China where the iPhone is struggling. International Data Corp estimated that Apple's tablet market share will decrease from 56.3% to 53.8% in 2012 while market share for Android products will increase to 42.7% from 39.8%

    Another reason for the selloff: Apple is not paying a special dividend before capital gains taxes are raised in 2013.

    "There are some people saying 'hey because they haven't done that they are

    Read More »from Apple Suffers Biggest Drop in Four Years: A Buying Opportunity for Investors?
  • Gold’s Uptrend Is Still Intact: Peter Schiff

    Investors traditionally load up on gold when domestic or global events signal potential problems ahead. Despite the budget battle in the U.S., the continuing credit crisis in Europe and ongoing tension in the Mideast, gold prices are retreating. Gold futures are now trading below $1,700 an ounce after peaking just above $1,900 in June 2011.

    Goldman Sachs today warned about "growing downside risks" in the yellow metal and reduced its 12-month price forecast by 7.2% to $1,800 an ounce. "The cycle in gold prices is near an inflection point," Goldman says.

    Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, doesn't agree. He says the factors pushing down gold prices are temporary and the precious metal will ultimately rally to $3,000, $5,000 or even more per ounce in the near future.

    Related: Gold $2,500: The Precious Metal is Headed for a Breakout, Says Martenson

    In the meantime, says Schiff, gold prices are retreating because investors in the U.S. are taking profits before capital gains

    Read More »from Gold’s Uptrend Is Still Intact: Peter Schiff
  • Reports of Republican lawmakers abandoning the party's long-held position against tax hikes have been greatly exaggerated, according to one of the nation's most influential conservative voices.

    Not only is the GOP not going to agree to new or higher taxes without simultaneous spending cuts, but the tea party, which in the last two years has sent a number of establishment Republicans into retirement, is poised to have an even bigger impact on American politics in the 2014 midterm elections. This, according to Grover Norquist, is simply the way it is.

    With concerns about the fiscal cliff -- the combination of tax increases and government spending reductions that could go into effect at the start of next year -- dominating the headlines, President Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner have been leading the argument that higher taxes on the richest U.S. citizens is one of the keys to reaching a compromise that would avoid the cliff.

    Both parties have acknowledged that the nation

    Read More »from Norquist: Republicans Aren’t Cracking on Taxes
  • On Wall Street, hope springs eternal for a deal on the fiscal cliff. At least, that's the reason many cited for Wednesday's rally, which saw the Dow up 122 points to 13,074 in recent trading.

    Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, says expectations for a deal anytime soon are likely to prove overly optimistic.

    "I didn't think this was case three weeks ago but do now think [President] Obama has decided to drive country over the fiscal cliff and blame the Republicans," Norquist tells me.

    Furthermore, Norquist says the consensus view that the public posturing is just "theater" while real progress is happening behind closed doors is simply false.

    Related: Politico's Ben White: Get Ready for a Market Rally Because a Fiscal Cliff Deal Is Coming

    "I spoke with people today -- not are only there no [private] meetings going on, there are none planned," he says.

    Norquist may be the ultimate partisan -- somewhat predictably, he says President Obama is fully to blame to the

    Read More »from Grover Norquist: No Talks Planned…We’re Going Over the Fiscal Cliff
  • Another few days have gone by, and the U.S. government still hasn't reached a deal to avert the "fiscal cliff"--the combination of spending cuts and tax hikes that are due to go into effect on Jan. 1.

    These changes are more like a "squeeze" than a "cliff," but they are expected to slow U.S. growth and perhaps throw the economy back into a recession.

    So lawmakers are eager to reach some sort of compromise that will reduce the changes and lessen the blow.

    In the past few days, the country has been treated to TV appearances by both sides, in which they pronounce each other's position as ridiculous and refuse to even come to the bargaining table. But Wall Street and Washington insiders still expect that we'll get a deal.

    Heidi Moore, the Finance and Economics Editor for The Guardian, agrees.

    Moore recently "translated" a letter that the Republicans in Congress sent to President Obama that outlined their opening budget counteroffer. The original letter, Moore says, was "huffy" and

    Read More »from Not the End of the World if Fiscal Cliff Deal Happens Next Year: Heidi Moore
  • Weak ADP Data Raise Stakes (and Fears) for Friday’s Govt. Jobs Report

    Payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and forecasting firm Moody's Analytics reported that employers added 118,000 new private-sector jobs last month compared to 157,000 jobs in October. Economists were expecting a gain of 125,000.

    The weak jobs numbers are largely blamed on Hurricane Sandy, which ravaged the U.S. Northeast in late October and early November. Some analysts are claiming that Sandy lowered ADP numbers by as much as 86,000 jobs. Temp work, hospitality, retail, and manufacturing industries were hit hardest by the storm.

    Small businesses were of particular concern, adding just 19,000 jobs.

    "We think of small businesses as job creators and fuel for the economy," Heidi Moore tells The Daily Ticker. "If they're not growing, we really need to worry." Manufacturing was also hit hard, losing 16,000 jobs in November.

    Related: The Top Small Business Job Creators in America

    This marks the second month of a new partnership between ADP and Moody's Analytics. The two

    Read More »from Weak ADP Data Raise Stakes (and Fears) for Friday’s Govt. Jobs Report
  • In his investing classic Market Wizards and its sequels, Jack Schwager profiled some of the world's most successful money managers. The books are a monument to the wisdom of certain investors, and how they've been so successful over long careers.

    In his new book, Market Sense and Nonsense, Schwager essentially takes the opposite approach --focusing on common mistakes investors make and some commonly held views that are just plain wrong.

    Among the most common mistakes and misconceptions:

    Momentum Begets Momentum: "Past performance is no indicator of future returns," isn't just a legal disclaimer used by mutual funds; it's also a good rule for investors to live by, says Schwager, who co-manages the ADM Investor Services Diversified Strategies fund. Most investors look at what's worked best in the past 3- or 5-years. But chasing performance "not only doesn't do better than picking darts, you're better off picking what did worse," he says.

    'Deficient Market Hypothesis': The financial

    Read More »from Jack Schwager: The Biggest Mistakes Investors Make

Pagination

(1,000 Stories)
 
Recent Quotes
Symbol Price Change % Chg 
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
 
Sign-in to view quotes in your portfolios.

Featured Blog Posts